or how about the worst case scenario --- fed raises .25 and has a ton of verbiage about inflation in the announcement. remember that greenie {inflation hawk} would not want to go out as someone who missed the big inflation spike.
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Fed rate poll
- Thread starter killATwill
- Start date
Quote from TGregg:
As for market reaction, my crystal ball (much requested picture of my trading station including my blue crystal ball to come soon) says this will be exactly what the market expects, so we'll get a fake one way, then retrace plus some. Taking on more risk, I say the market sells off on the news but closes up for the day.
I agree with this. Doesn't matter what Greenspan decides to do, the reaction will aim to take out all those betting on a rally.
The poll here already shows the imbalance and as we all know, there are more losers than winners.
interesting how similar the ET poll stats are to the real betting...
"According to futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade, <b>investors are betting there's an 84 percent chance the central bank will raise its target for the federal funds rate</b>, an overnight bank lending rate that is the Fed's main tool for manipulating monetary policy"
"According to futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade, <b>investors are betting there's an 84 percent chance the central bank will raise its target for the federal funds rate</b>, an overnight bank lending rate that is the Fed's main tool for manipulating monetary policy"
My opinion is there will be a hike, but then some language indicating no further hikes.
That's almost like a 'pause' isn't it?
Just a thought
That's almost like a 'pause' isn't it?
Just a thought
Back in the distant past, they did have changes in eight's on few occasions......
LOL