I will be surprised if we get a 100 point swing in the Dow. Until everyone is sitting on the edge of their seats waiting the bump higher in the FF rate this is a non event.
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Fed Meeting Today?
- Thread starter Roman Candle
- Start date
I will be surprised if we get a 100 point swing in the Dow. Until everyone is sitting on the edge of their seats waiting the bump higher in the FF rate this is a non event.
Quote from S2007S:
Talk is that sometime by the end of 2009 rates will be back up near .50%, they aren't going to even do anything today but give everyone a heads up on where the economy is and where its heading, if they say anything positive I would just sit back and take it as one big LAUGH.
Highly unlikely unless they move to guarantee CRE debt. (which is probably if it becomes a problem).
Commercial mortgages at risk of default five times higher in a year
By Saskia Scholtes in New York
Published: April 29 2009 03:00 | Last updated: April 29 2009 03:00
The volume of commercial mortgages at risk of default has quintupled since the beginning of 2008 as a deteriorating economy has made it increasingly difficult for shops and businesses to keep up with their payments.
Special servicers, companies that collect payments from borrowers in distress on behalf of mortgage bond investors, reported $23.7bn of mortgages under their care at the end of the first quarter, according to Fitch Ratings.
That was five times higher than the $4.6bn of mortgages needing special servicing at the end of 2007. Servicers experienced an almost 50 per cent increase in the volume of distressed commercial mortgages in the first quarter alone.
Mortgages for multi-family residential properties suffering from the housing downturn represented the largest share of the troubled loans at 31 per cent, said Fitch. However, mortgages for shops and businesses were catching up, with retail loans at 28 per cent of the distressed pools.
"Retail properties were the first property type to see the effects of declining economic conditions and consumer spending," said Stephanie Petosa, analyst at Fitch. "[We have] observed an increase in defaults of retail loans and expect them to eventually surpass multi-family as the highest property type concentration."
Mortgages for retail properties such as shopping centres have suffered from bankruptcies of "big box" retailing tenants such as Circuit City and Linens 'n Things, spurring an increase in vacancies and forcing a growing number of borrowers to seek relief from their lenders.
General Growth Properties, the second-largest US mall owner, collapsed this month because it was unable to refinance more than $3.3bn in debt due for repayment this year. The company owns 200 shopping centres.
"Commercial real estate is in a world of hurt and will be for at least the next two years," said Ross Smotrich, analyst at Barclays Capital.
"This is a capital intensive business in which lending capacity has diminished because of the absence of securitisation, while the fundamentals are driven by the overall economy, so both occupancy and rents are declining," he added.
Fitch analysts said they expect commercial mortgage defaults to continue to increase this year. At the end of the first quarter, defaults and payments more than 60 days late were at 1.53 per cent of outstanding mortgages.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
You jest but this is very true. If you are a pro trader (ie your sole source of income, or majority of income) then you know when major new releases are being released. Plain and simple.
A market moving event such as the FOMC announcement is one of the, if not thee, most market moving announcements we have intraday.
Why is the employment report not tomorrow, the first Friday of the month?
What you are saying is what a pundit may say, I'm talking about real trading. You ever had 25 ES lots before an FOMC announcement not knowing it was about to be released?
Quote from Roman Candle:
I will be surprised if we get a 100 point swing in the Dow. Until everyone is sitting on the edge of their seats waiting the bump higher in the FF rate this is a non event.
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
What you are saying is what a pundit may say, I'm talking about real trading. You ever had 25 ES lots before an FOMC announcement not knowing it was about to be released?
Having 25 ES contracts in the market at the time of the release is not going to hurt the guy with a 2 million dollar account. It could however inflect some damage on the trader with a 200k trading account.
I don't use a lot of leverage, sometimes I just get up and go to the store with open positions, no big deal. I think more clearly when I don't leverage up. Guess Iâm not a real trader like you guys.
I'm content to hit singles!
Hitting singles is fine, its not about that. It's about knowing when the market is about to release news that COULD drastically alter the landscape of the current environment. Will it? Who knows. But what you and every other trader SHOULD know is that it's there.
My acct is well over 200k (or should I say the money I allot to trading), but that doesn't mean I disregard a major news event. I take everything seriously, trading is a serious business to those who do it full time. To the part timer, it may be a hobby and so not knowing major new releases is no big deal.
My acct is well over 200k (or should I say the money I allot to trading), but that doesn't mean I disregard a major news event. I take everything seriously, trading is a serious business to those who do it full time. To the part timer, it may be a hobby and so not knowing major new releases is no big deal.
Quote from Roman Candle:
Having 25 ES contracts in the market at the time of the release is not going to hurt the guy with a 2 million dollar account. It could however inflect some damage on the trader with a 200k trading account.
I don't use a lot of leverage, sometimes I just get up and go to the store with open positions, no big deal. I think more clearly when I don't leverage up. Guess Iâm not a real trader like you guys.
I'm content to hit singles!
Quote from R. Raskolnikov:
Hitting singles is fine, its not about that. It's about knowing when the market is about to release news that COULD drastically alter the landscape of the current environment. Will it? Who knows. But what you and every other trader SHOULD know is that it's there.
My acct is well over 200k (or should I say the money I allot to trading), but that doesn't mean I disregard a major news event. I take everything seriously, trading is a serious business to those who do it full time. To the part timer, it may be a hobby and so not knowing major new releases is no big deal.
I bet a lot of traders miss some great opportunities because the ad hear to the wall street myths about not trading in and around big news events.
If you not trading with a lot of leverage and you practice money management principals what difference does it make? Every trade has an uncertain out come.