fed is in a box

[William Rennick]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

too much info info overload

This is the smartest thing you've posted. This is an interesting thread, but totally unneeded info for trading.. I turn the damned TV off when I trade.

Rennick

 

[Pa(b)st Prime]

You're completely backwards with this view. The popular as in populist course for Central Bankers is to keep rates low. I guarantee you'll see the democrat controlled Congress take Bernanke to task for not lowering the Funds rate. Dem's want high wages even if those wages are being paid in a worthless currency. If Bernake holds his ground by fighting inflation at the expense of the economy he'll ironically face much greater wrath from the Left than from conservatives. The rich guy can live with 30% shaved off his portfolio. The day laborer building home foundations can't eat if the economy slows down.

The real fun will be when in 2010 we have some weirdo Dem like Al Gore as Prez (I still see him as prob '08 nominee) who appoints some leftist inflator as successor to the then despised Bernanke. It'll be a blast trading Bonds when they're issuing some 12% coupons......

Quote from empee:

fed wont cut. Fed wants to stay in power, if they devalue the currency/lose control than all is lost for them. That is priority #1, keeping themselves in power, they'd rather have a depression than lose power.

Ppl cant afford their houses even with 0 interest. Its not really going to matter what the banks do, thats why they have been trying to inflate away the problem (accelerating inflation) to partially offset the drop in housing prices (let wages catch up), ie in a perfect FED world housing prices would go sideways, while costs of everything would gradually go up 2x-3x, thereby using inflation to avert a catastrophe. However, they don't have enuff time to inflate that much, so it can't be done. (They have been inflating for some time already).

In any case, markets go where they want to go. When its this extreme, I don't really think anyone can get in the way since the once psychology changes there isn't much anyone can do until we reach bottom.

The FED is trying to smooth it out but its still going to be bad. On the plus side, when you understand the scam that they FED =IS=, perhaps a new currency not controlled by them is a fantastic idea although there is short-term pain getting there.

Repatriate control of the currency to the government at least.

 

[vitajex]

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

The real fun will be when in 2010 we have some weirdo Dem like Al Gore as Prez (I still see him as prob '08 nominee) who appoints some leftist inflator as successor to the then despised Bernanke. It'll be a blast trading Bonds when they're issuing some 12% coupons......

It amazes me that Greenie and Bernanke are not themselves considered inflators, and that bond yields remain so low in spite of inflation in prices of food, energy, healthcare, etc. If the usual answer is given about China, etc buying so many bonds, has that decoupled inflation from bond yields, at least somewhat?

I wonder how money supply growth in the last ten years compares to the pre-Volcker era growth.


-v

 

[sobemark]

Quote from vitajex:

It amazes me that Greenie and Bernanke are not themselves considered inflators, and that bond yields remain so low in spite of inflation in prices of food, energy, healthcare, etc. If the usual answer is given about China, etc buying so many bonds, has that decoupled inflation from bond yields, at least somewhat?

I wonder how money supply growth in the last ten years compares to the pre-Volcker era growth.


-v

bring back Volcker !!

 

[da-net]

Quote from William Rennick:

This is the smartest thing you've posted. This is an interesting thread, but totally unneeded info for trading..

Rennick

This IS an interesting thread. As to it not being needed for trading that I am not sure about.

This whole damn thing is one giant "Cluster F***" as we said in the army. I am starting believe that a recession is on its way and can't be stopped. My concern is that it might be a depression. You and I as taxpayers are bailing out these idiots just as we did on the S&L bailout.

What leads me to this thinking is that the small guy on the street has been living "hand to mouth" for a few years. Case in point a friend that owns an auto repair shop has quite a few customers that have to pay small repair bills (under $200) with combinations of multiple CCs and cash, because the CCs are maxed out!

This subprime mortgage problem is not isolated to the USA and I believe there is a possibility that one or more Fed Insured Banks may collapse. High on my list is Washington Mutual Bank (WM on the NYSE), which acquired Homeside Lending a few years ago, stated in their latest filing that net deposits for the 1st 6 months are down $12+ Billion and for the comparable period last year deposits were up $11+ Billion... This tells me the little guy either doesn't have the money to deposit or is keeping it under his mattress... I'll let you decide which one you believe!

The other part of this problem is that MidFirst Bank of Oklahoma which owns Midland Mortgage purchased some assets of Homeside Lending including some offices. Both of those mortgage companies have been heavily involved in subprime lending for years. There may be more ties between the companies than what appears on the surface.

Ask anyone that was unlucky enough to have money in the S&Ls when that fiasco happened how much of their money that got back...they were NOT made whole!

 

[sobemark]

Quote from da-net:

This IS an interesting thread. As to it not being needed for trading that I am not sure about.

This whole damn thing is one giant "Cluster F***" as we said in the army. I am starting believe that a recession is on its way and can't be stopped. My concern is that it might be a depression. You and I as taxpayers are bailing out these idiots just as we did on the S&L bailout.

What leads me to this thinking is that the small guy on the street has been living "hand to mouth" for a few years. Case in point a friend that owns an auto repair shop has quite a few customers that have to pay small repair bills (under $200) with combinations of multiple CCs and cash, because the CCs are maxed out!

This subprime mortgage problem is not isolated to the USA and I believe there is a possibility that one or more Fed Insured Banks may collapse. High on my list is Washington Mutual Bank (WM on the NYSE), which acquired Homeside Lending a few years ago, stated in their latest filing that net deposits for the 1st 6 months are down $12+ Billion and for the comparable period last year deposits were up $11+ Billion... This tells me the little guy either doesn't have the money to deposit or is keeping it under his mattress... I'll let you decide which one you believe!

The other part of this problem is that MidFirst Bank of Oklahoma which owns Midland Mortgage purchased some assets of Homeside Lending including some offices. Both of those mortgage companies have been heavily involved in subprime lending for years. There may be more ties between the companies than what appears on the surface.

Ask anyone that was unlucky enough to have money in the S&Ls when that fiasco happened how much of their money that got back...they were NOT made whole!

also ..i have heard comparisons to the LTCM collapse of 98 ..when the fed orchestrated that bailout ...

LTCM could look like a daytrader account compared with all the possible hedge fund blow ups this time around !!

AUG 15 is a key redemption deadline day... outflows anyone ??

 

[Instant Karma]

Quote from empee:

On the plus side, when you understand the scam that they FED =IS=, perhaps a new currency not controlled by them is a fantastic idea

yeah, how about an old one ..like say..GOLD


GOLD IS FREEDOM

 

[segv]

Hey girl, I got somethin' real important to give you
So just sit down and listen
Girl you know we've been together such a long, long time (such a long time)
And now I'm ready to lay it on the line
(Wooow) You know it's Christmas and my heart is open wide (open wide)
Gonna give you something so you know what's on my mind (what is on my mind)
A gift real special, so take off the top
Take a look inside -- it's my fed in a box (it's in a box)
Not gonna get you a diamond ring
That sort of gift don't mean anything
Not gonna get you a fancy car
Girl ya gotta know you're my shining star
Not gonna get you a house in the hills
A girl like you needs somethin' real
Wanna get you somethin' from the heart
Somethin' special girl
It's my fed in a box, my fed in a box girl