Fed Interest Rate Decision for January 31: Should They Raise or Lower the Rate?

[Cabin1111]

A welcome sigh of relief...

Retired...Have a lot of treasuries and CDs.

Keep those rates high and boring!!

Yeah, I lost (on paper) in the market today. But, I am sure there are many retirees (who may have sold a business/rental) that are sitting on cash, who are rejoicing at the sit tight position...

 

[TheDawn]

Can't believe people would think that the Fed would start to lower the rate. LOL We are not out of the woods yet with inflation people!! Most likely the Fed would keep the rate unchanged for fear of a recession which is exactly what the Fed did. This post is a bit of from hindsight but never expected that the Fed would lower the rate. Can't believe that the market is acting like a spoiled baby, having a tantrum tanking so much just because it didn't get what it was expecting from the Feds

 

[murray t turtle]

%%
MANY tech companies have low debt\ so interest rates dont matter much, like MSFT,GOOG.
But hind sight can help;
last weeks close SPY did 1.0%\QQQ did 0.6% last weeks close.
Usually QQQ does much better than SPY, may not have much to do with interest rates ??.Dont know.
I dont even have to know if many of MSFT +GOOG customers are loaded with credit card debt;
even with a Fed rate cut,or rate hold or hike, credit card companies may NOT cut thier rates LOL
4:35 CST.
Last day of JAN usually up, SPY;
\FEB SPY \usually down.
Metals markets fine + money markets , fine.

 

[maxinger]

My strategy doesn't depend on IR too.

My strategy depends on how the market moves.
If the market moves decisively/nicely/gracefully, then it is easy money for me.
If the market moves choppily/messily/whipsawing-ly, then high chance I will lose $$$.

It moved choppily/messily in a diverging triangle formation.

 

[S2007S]

Wow. No rate cuts in March according to Powell. Here comes the vol.

Why did anyone actually believe we were getting a rate cut in March is beyond my comprehension....


Why the talk of 6 rate cuts in 2024 when we are suppoosingly in a goldilocks economy.

They can have 0% rates for 20 yrs, but get a rate at 5% for a few months and they want them straight to 0% again.

I really hope we see more inflation coming so rates go higher and all these ones hoping, praying and begging for rate cuts see rate hikes instead!!!!

 

[Cabin1111]

Why did anyone actually believe we were getting a rate cut in March is beyond my comprehension....


Why the talk of 6 rate cuts in 2024 when we are suppoosingly in a goldilocks economy.

They can have 0% rates for 20 yrs, but get a rate at 5% for a few months and they want them straight to 0% again.

I really hope we see more inflation coming so rates go higher and all these ones hoping, praying and begging for rate cuts see rate hikes instead!!!!

True story in my hometown.

Old time farmer walks into Bank of America in 1981. He requests and gets $100,000. CD/5 years, earning over 15%.

A year later the bank is asking him to turn it in and they would pay him a huge bonus.

He chose to keep it...

 

[SunTrader]

True story in my hometown.

Old time farmer walks into Bank of America in 1981. He requests and gets $100,000. CD/5 years, earning over 15%.

A year later the bank is asking him to turn it in and they would pay him a huge bonus.

He chose to keep it...

That was pretty common back in those days, once sky-high rates started coming back down.

Here's the 10yr rate in 1981 and 1982. The drop in 1982 was almost 5% which is just about equivalent to current rate, so just think how much banks would be hurting if rates dropped like that to 0% and they a lot of depositors locked in.

 

[murray t turtle]

True story in my hometown.

Old time farmer walks into Bank of America in 1981. He requests and gets $100,000. CD/5 years, earning over 15%.

A year later the bank is asking him to turn it in and they would pay him a huge bonus.

He chose to keep it...

%%
GOOD instincts +profit.
I did not try to figure out if a rate cut or hold hold;
study trends, mostly hindsight;
some counter trends, more trends , occasional CDs+ money market......

 

[nitrene]

Wow what a payroll number. +353K. Looks like there could a hike instead of lowering rates.

 

[SunTrader]

Wow what a payroll number. +353K. Looks like there could a hike instead of lowering rates.

That's not all:-

(CNBC)

"The report also indicated that December’s job gains were much better than originally reported. The month posted a gain of 333,000, which was an upward revision of 117,000 from the initial estimate. November also was revised up, to 182,000, or 9,000 higher than the last estimate."