Fed cut Monday or Tuesday
- Thread starter silk
- Start date
Cutting the discount rate is a tiny, tiny gesture. It means nothing. Nobody <i>ever</i> borrows at the discount window.
Wall Street completely misread this. Cutting the discount window is the Fed's way of saying, "We're going to take the tiniest possible utterly symbolic and meaningless gesture to allay concerns without actually having any net economic effect whatsoever."
Martin
Wall Street completely misread this. Cutting the discount window is the Fed's way of saying, "We're going to take the tiniest possible utterly symbolic and meaningless gesture to allay concerns without actually having any net economic effect whatsoever."
Martin
Your right it's not their job, but they are political appointments and they are more than likely feeling the heat.
When you step back, it seems so stupid, the dow ran up 2000 points from March to July, now its down 1000 points big fucking deal.
This country is so dammm spoiled it makes me sick.
Quote from nitro:
AHAHAHAHHAAH
Tell you what, when you see the FED cut the IR, go ahead and sell 5000 NQ that moment and come back and tell us how you did. Changing the language will rally NQ 50 handles, let along cutting the rate, which may lock limit NQ higher, and ES and YM will not be far behind
FWIW, I have no idea how the FED can cut rates here. It may change its language, but cut rates now? I estimate 1 chance in 10 it does so here. Chance of changing language, 50%. Watch the bonds, they will tell you the odds of a language change. FFFs will give you the odds of an actual cut. Through monetary policy the FED has already been infusing markets with liquidity as a result of the sub prime worries, which is why bonds rallied off their lows. This is in effect a mild "language change."
If oil goes well below $70, and we get another slowing jobs growth number, chance of cut goes to 75%. _if_ subprime worries intensify, they go to 100%. Look at QM this morning, off a $1. Every $ QM goes lower, the more likely the FED will act tomorrow, IMO, but it won't be $65 tomorrow so it is all a mute point.
nitro
The bond market has been getting it wrong for quit some time now.
That would depend when one went short. After a 1000 point drop I'm sure alot of shorts had taken some profits.
Until the market can climb back above the 20 and 50 day moving averages the shorts have field advantage.
Quote from nitro:
What?????????????
The bonds have gotten it exactly right. Perhaps a little slow, but certainly not wrong.
No one gets markets that move 300 points down then 300 points up on an almost daily basis right all the time.
nitro
The bond market has been predicting an ease for over a year, hence the inverted yield curve. Just a few months ago things came back in line the ten year yield was at par with the fed funds rate.
Now once again the bond market is trying to predict fed policy. Things are just so out of whack these days, what use to work no longer does.