Fed chicken didn't have the guts to pull the trigger

Statistical Trader said:
March.

I mean, things can always change, but March seems fairly likely.
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It depends what happens. The Fed was very hawkish in 2018 until the market tanked. Do they really want to make stocks, bonds and real estate crater by doing something won't do much to fight inflation...which is more of a policy issue than a monetary one? Note that oil is still up for the day after their statement, unlike other assets. Open pipelines, maximize fracking and end lockdowns if you want to reduce inflation. But that's not in their job description. Meanwhile, a sharp rise in interest rates will make interest on the debt soar--not good. That said, they may do a few rate increases but I don't think it will nearly as aggressive as they're claiming.
 
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smallfil said:
All the early gains was wiped out. Still hanging to my long positions. My put options are going up in value so, it is all good. Nice to be hedged.
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%%
Early weekly gains on spxl UPRO,
spxs, spxu still holding. End of week may provide a clue about the best trends + hedge:caution::caution:
 
Bugsy if you shorted S&P you're a smart man.
Between 12:20 and 13:00 ES futures ran a volatility contraction pattern, then blew to
the upside over 100 points. Few minutes later reversed down another 200+ points.

Thank you Mark Minervini
 
mikeriley said:
blew to
the upside over 100 points.
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That was the exact point I shorted, but on the 2nd 5 minute candle after you could see it retracing some. I figured a tight stop of 11 points which was over its initial high was worth it if I was correct. Currently sitting up 160 points.
 
Until the next FOMC meeting expect to see weaker economic data, this will give the FOMC cover to do nothing. However if crude oil keeps rising, that will make it more difficult for them to wait. It's all rigged, just think like a crook and you to can figure it out.
 
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