Fed Announces Rates!! Massive market Surge!! I Am Right

Quote from stock_trad3r:

When I sellected these five stocks on June 15th the nasdaq was at 2100 and the fed was about to announce rates, after which the market surged higher that day. I figured the market would rebound and I took a risk and recommend the five stocks on the basis that:

a. the market was almost or at a bottom before the fed rate hike and that my stocks would surge afterward when the markets rebounded.

b. the stocks shown consistant performance for years. All were up well over 200% since 2005.

c. Companies were growing rapidly and profitable.

Using those three sets of information, I made my choice.

I sell before earnings IF the stock rallied heavily after the previous earnings. If Hans for example surges 100% after last earnings, I would sell most of my stake before next earnings becasue there is too much pressure for the stock to outperform.

I also sell if the stock plunges on bad news such as a change of business model or missed earnings guidance.

I also sell if the stock goes up 'too quickly'. Sometimes a stock will surge 6-15% for 2-4 consecutive days towards the end of its runup (often indicated by consecutive gapping white candles). The stock often collapses thereafter in what is called a 'moment of reversal'. But-it CAN rebound later although this can take many months or years depending on the magnitude of the selloff.
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great...you have listed 3 items which are arbitrary and undefined.

a. i buy at the bottom what ever that means
b. Consistent performance for years..how do you measure consistency..and for how many years?
c. growing rapidly and profitable...again..what is growing rapidly...and how profitable.


i will ask another question...what is you MONEY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY...señor "i have been trading for years".
 
Quote from dac8555:

great...you have listed 3 items which are arbitrary and undefined.


i will ask another question...what is you MONEY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY...señor "i have been trading for years".
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I think he sets mental stops for each stock at 0, and if the stock looks like it might go up too much he immediately sells for fear of making a profit.
 
Quote from dac8555:

great...you have listed 3 items which are arbitrary and undefined.

a. i buy at the bottom what ever that means
b. Consistent performance for years..how do you measure consistency..and for how many years?
c. growing rapidly and profitable...again..what is growing rapidly...and how profitable.


i will ask another question...what is you MONEY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY...señor "i have been trading for years".
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a. When the nasdaq breaks below its normal trading range as we have seen in the past 2 months. It isnt an exact science where the bottom is.

b. The companies I have chosen have shown increasing revenue and profit.

c. Stock has outperformed the major indexes by a very large margin.

Nice..AAPL reorted great eanrings..up 9% in AH which puts me at break even for that stock (for now atleast)
 
Quote from stock_trad3r:

a. When the nasdaq breaks below its normal trading range as we have seen in the past 2 months. It isnt an exact science where the bottom is.

b. The companies I have chosen have shown increasing revenue and profit.

c. Stock has outperformed the major indexes by a very large margin.

Nice..AAPL reorted great eanrings..up 9% in AH which puts me at break even for that stock (for now atleast)
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still completely arbitrary "outperformed major indexes by a large margin" Which indices, what margin, how large. are you using Alpha, beta? what is your Measure? Read oneil for a good example of how to measure these things. or do a search for CANSLIM.

Much more important than this is a money management strategy...do you have one of those?
 
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What a discretionary trader loves is the excitement. He loves being “in the markets,” playing with the big guys. He craves the risk, the excitement of trading, and the gambling rush that he gets from calling his broker and putting in the order to buy. He loves being able to sell Gyro Corp. based on the news story of the health hazards of their top selling Gyrometer. He has a real obsession for buying Cotton based on the hot tip from his broker that the upcoming crop report was going to be bullish, and he covets the tip from his friend who called to say that he just bought Techno Corp. because the latest quarterly earnings were going to be a surprise on the upside.

Discretionary traders retain the flexibility of changing their buy and sell criteria from moment to moment, and change they way they trade from minute to minute and day by day. “Well, that last trade was a disaster, so tomorrow I will buy McDonald’s only if it opens up from yesterday’s close.” They don’t have any discipline, nor do they think they need any. They use their intuition and their gut instinct, and feel justified in doing so. They think, “Making money is easy, you just have to be smarter and quicker than the next guy.”

I personally don’t know anyone who has made money by discretionary trading. They may have been lucky and won on a few trades, but overall, over time, discretionary traders always lose money.

It is after enough money has been lost that the discretionary trader in some way stumbles across technical indicators. It may be from the chart book he just looked at where there was a Stochastic Indicator underneath the chart. Or he may have gone to the latest Make a Million Dollars Trading the Stock Market seminar and found out that using the Relative Strength Indicator is the sure way to stock market profits. He thinks, “So this is how they do it!” These indicators look like magic. They add some rationality to an otherwise irrational trading style. He thinks, “This must be how the big money players make the big money—they use technical indicators!”


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This is a bunch of Bull Shit. Jim Rogers, George Soros, Julian Robertson, Warren Buffet, Franklin Templeton, William O Neil, among many others used a mostly discretionary format to build there wealth. You can be an idiot trading fundamnetals or technical analysis. I personally trade only off fundamentals and will only pay attention to charts if the trade is obssesing about something. I think technical indicaters are 95% fradulent and most traders will not make money using them. It seems that they are used to trick the masses into thinking that trading is easy because there is no need to understand the economics/structure of the product they are trading.
 
Jho's post makes a lot of sense to me and I think it does for all self learning traders. The 8-page post, IMO is one of the best pieces of read in this forum.
 
Quote from Johnny Walker:

I think technical indicaters are 95% fradulent and most traders will not make money using them. It seems that they are used to trick the masses into thinking that trading is easy because there is no need to understand the economics/structure of the product they are trading. [/B]
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LMAO. Fraudulent technical indicators? Indicators reflect what has happened in the past. They are not fraudulent. They are not guaranteed to do anything other than reflect what has already happened. There is no conspiracy. Everyone is not out to get you. No one is forcing anyone to use any indicators. Most indicators have been around for quite some time or are variations of older indicators. Most of them have a useful purpose, but they should not be the only criteria used in selecting a stock.
 
As a side note, EVERY INDICATOR we have was someone's attempt at finding the holy grail. If that is not proof there is no holy grail other than money management, I don't know what is.
 
By fraudulent, I mean these indicators are represented by companies/individuals to make you rich if you follow them and ignore a lot of other information. I would love to see the stats on how many retail traders are failures using just technical indicators.
 
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