FED and Inflation

Quote from chasinfla:

and issues a digital, nominally gold and/or commodity backed world currency.
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I know you are not necessarily advocating a commodity backed currency. I just wanted to make a brief comment regarding the difficulties of such.

A hard asset backed currency can work among a limited number of nations who cooperate fully and agree on the mechanism for pricing the asset behind the currency, and the mechanism for establishing exchange rates. That's what we had after WWII and the Bretton Woods conference, and it worked fairly well, from the U.S. perspective anyway, for some time. The problem in the end was that the participating parties, and chiefly the U.S. Central Bank, were not able to maintain the price of gold stable enough to continue the arrangement.

Essentially, the U.S. Central Bank lost control of the price of gold. So while bank notes were being redeemed at 35$/oz by the U.S. Treasury (it was obligated to do so by the Bretton Woods Agreement) gold was selling elsewhere for $45/oz.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to recognize that this is an unsustainable arrangement.

Going back to any kind of hard asset based currency in a global market seems completely out of the question simply because of the impossibility of maintaining a sufficiently stable price for the asset. Fiat currencies make far more sense in today's world.
 
Quote from piezoe:

.....

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to recognize that this is an unsustainable arrangement.

Going back to any kind of hard asset based currency in a global market seems completely out of the question simply because of the impossibility of maintaining a sufficiently stable price for the asset. Fiat currencies make far more sense in today's world.
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One potential Financial System change would be to ban the rolling over or swap exchange of debt (The Jubilee concept). This is also an unsustainable arrangement and a great enabler of corruption in my mind. Accounting games used to hide corporate and government debts for money (like some investment bankers reportedly have done) would be obsolete.

If any debtor showed in court that any debt is actually greater than (for example say) 25 years, the world banking court could order a 100% (or even a 50%) pardon of that debt at the 25 year point. It should be a short enough period so that compared to a human lifetime, people will remember who created this problem. Issuers of debt would bear the costs of faulty decisions before they could get too large.

Rolling over of debts causes trouble since the people borrowing can send the bill to their children and potentially avoid the consequences of their actions for their lifetimes. Also the costs of rolling over are hidden in the new debt issued. That is total fiat since no asset backed that part and very little service!

The markets could price in the risk of default in the debt sooner instead of only as the financial system collapses ( like Oct 2008). Banks could be business to ensure people pay their bills over their lifetimes. (LOL - similar to organized crime - pay as you go system that doesn't accept paper IOUs! Just joking!) People who issued debt and didn't have a sound repayment scheme could be held accountable in their life times.

One of the troubles with our current system is that the market can't completely price the risk in. Since the guardians can jiggle the numbers.
 
Quote from piezoe:

Yes, actually it is. With respect to food prices anyway. It might not be with respect to the "general level" of the prices for goods and services. That would depend on what other prices are doing, and the weighting factors used. (Inflation indices are a gray area in economics that can be manipulated all over the map.)

The standard definition of inflation used by economists is independent of the cause.

Curiously, the ~7% inflation experienced by hayman in NY, as reported in this thread, is consistent with the CPI inflation reported at www.shadowstats.com

In various threads here at ET, I have referred to the shadowstats CPI figure as "real inflation," in contrast to the official government figure.

Here is another curious thing. When you use the shadowstats inflation numbers and calculate the rise in tuition at public institutions of higher learning, you find that college tuition increases (publicly supported institutions) are exactly inline with "real inflation"! When you couple this with declining state and local subsidies relative to real inflation, it's clear why many of these institutions are experiencing difficult times financially. [You have to use official U.S. government inflation numbers to get the gee whiz rise in tuition being reported in the media!]

Though easily explained given the depth of the collapse in real estate markets and building, during much of 2009, according to official U.S. data, the U.S. actually experienced headline deflation (general level of prices going down instead of up). Needless to say, this was, however, a short lived phenomenon.
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ok, you win, crude goes up, everything goes up, it you want to call it inflation, fine. Now, what do you want the fed to do about it?

throw a drought in there, what more do you want them to do?
 
Quote from piezoe:

Yes, actually it is. With respect to food prices anyway. It might not be with respect to the "general level" of the prices for goods and services. That would depend on what other prices are doing, and the weighting factors used. (Inflation indices are a gray area in economics that can be manipulated all over the map.)

The standard definition of inflation used by economists is independent of the cause.

Curiously, the ~7% inflation experienced by hayman in NY, as reported in this thread, is consistent with the CPI inflation reported at www.shadowstats.com

In various threads here at ET, I have referred to the shadowstats CPI figure as "real inflation," in contrast to the official government figure.

Here is another curious thing. When you use the shadowstats inflation numbers and calculate the rise in tuition at public institutions of higher learning, you find that college tuition increases (publicly supported institutions) are exactly inline with "real inflation"! When you couple this with declining state and local subsidies relative to real inflation, it's clear why many of these institutions are experiencing difficult times financially. [You have to use official U.S. government inflation numbers to get the gee whiz rise in tuition being reported in the media!]

Though easily explained given the depth of the collapse in real estate markets and building, during much of 2009, according to official U.S. data, the U.S. actually experienced headline deflation (general level of prices going down instead of up). Needless to say, this was, however, a short lived phenomenon.
More...

I find it interesting that you are not so naive as to believe the "official" inflation figures and will continually make reference to the Shadow Stats inflation figures. On the other hand, you make constant reference to what a swell job you think Bernanke is doing and that he should continue on the current path "so as not to let the economy return to recession". Essentially, you are talking out of both sides of your mouth. You acknowledge that inflation is running hot (7% inflation with essentially zero percent interest rates)...it doesn't take a genius to figure out if rates are running this negative to inflation, in a very short while the standard of living goes straight to hell...

Of course, there are a few smart asses around here that tell people to run into whatever the hot asset class is to make up the shortfall (in returns relative to inflation)...to which it should be reiterated that stocks have had 2 bubble and bursts in just the past 10-12 years.
 
Quote from oldtime:

ok, you win, crude goes up, everything goes up, it you want to call it inflation, fine. Now, what do you want the fed to do about it?

throw a drought in there, what more do you want them to do?
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Hayman already told you. He'd rather THEY DO NOTHING AT ALL!

Do you want me to chase you around these threads and bang you over the head with it repeatedly? (like your dumb ass continues to do with this "whaddya want them to do about it?")
 
Quote from denner:

Hayman already told you. He'd rather THEY DO NOTHING AT ALL!

Do you want me to chase you around these threads and bang you over the head with it repeatedly? (like your dumb ass continues to do with this "whaddya want them to do about it?")
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ok, end the fed

and that will cure inflation?
 
Quote from denner:

Hayman already told you. He'd rather THEY DO NOTHING AT ALL!

Do you want me to chase you around these threads and bang you over the head with it repeatedly? (like your dumb ass continues to do with this "whaddya want them to do about it?")
More...

+1
 
things heat up in the middle east, oil traders get skiddish, it quits raining, chicken feed goes up, hospitals realize they can charge medicare just about anything and they will pay, college realize the government will loan students whatever they need, local governments raise property taxes, just because they can

if you follow the DX it isn't getting any weaker

and you want to blame it all on the fed?
 
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