My friends at work call me the pessimist. I mean, my favorite color is black, anytime I interview someone already making 80-100K a year, I tell them make sure you really love the game before giving up your steady gig because you will be hard pressed to make that much day trading, hell, I even tell my own team that this year will be tough and at least half the newbies won't survive.
I on the other hand, try to think of it as an instinct, a sense for danger, a foresight for trouble ahead. I always think of the worst case scenario ahead of the time (and that still includes watching her marrying to someone else and me becoming a monk for the rest of my life after giving her everything I own).
And how is this for a prediction, there is a very real possibility that I not only underperform last year, I may finish with something rediculous, like a total of 30K for the year.
Maybe I am just trying to say something to take pressure off myself, or what I usually do, a reverse psychology (I like it when people look down on me, I mean, if you can't make your enemies underestimate you, you shouldn't have enemies). But 1/10th of the year is already gone, and it is supposedly, the best 1/10th of the year, and I am up just 4K, that is a 40K year, but once you take summer into consideration, not a pretty picture.
There are many reasons for a very slow start, let's take a look:
1) Inability to play big on big games.
It seems every week so far had at least one total gimmick of a game that you can easily score big points on, yet I keep on missing them. Last 4 weeks, every week we had a 150-200 point sell-off on the Dow, and I think my combined score for those games is barely flat. I need to play big on big games, I mean, a solid trader must not only pull down above average numbers on days like those, but also play big on follow-up's. For example, when the market has been down big two day's in a row like it was on Friday and today, you know it is due for a squeeze at some point, and with 3 days left in the week, there is almost a guarantee that you will get one size rally to play out of those 3 days. For someone trading my size, this should be a very easy 2K week, 1K on the rally day (as I play better on rally day's than I do on sell-off day's), 1K split across the sell-off days. With the exception of that one brief moment of brilliance in January, I have totally missed those good spurts when the market opened itself up for serious profits.
2) Inability to get consistent scoring.
My energy woes continues as I have got zero production from them. There is currently no sector I can say with total confidence that I will take money out of 4 out of 5 day's a week. The result has been win one, lose one, win one, lose one . . . I have never been a trader who can hit one big day that erases two bad days plus change, I need consistency scoring to build a nice P&L.
3) Trading out of the comfort zone.
Unfortunately, at the beginning of the year I made it a mission to break out of my statistical range last year. Which means increased size and longer holding time. Even the smallest adjustments feel like sands in my contact lens and it definitely hurt my harmony.
4) Blown lay-ups and really bad swings.
Early in February I felt I really had my momentum going as everything came together. Then first game of the week, huge energy/chemical rally, the kind that guarantees a four digit game, bad execution, up just $230. Two games later, horrible fill on HI, bam, down four digits. Then it took me a great afternoon rally just to make back what I lost on that HI fill. Today, should be up at least a few hundred even with my eyes closed, down $500, that is at least a $1000 swing. This kind of swings really really hurt confidence and it really kills my flow.
5) The Team
Well, last year, I worked with Mrs F and Mr M, two very good friends, we had a lot of good ideas brewing, everyday, we watched eachother's back. Sometimes it really helps that you get a lay-up from a friend when you are cold.
When I first left them to start my own team, I was in the midst of a 15 games winning streak to close up 2001, everything went right, I was just putting icing on the cake for what I considered to be a solid start for my trading career.
All of a sudden I am among a group of strangers, and with the exception of STOCKKBROKER from the Elite Trader board, I had no idea what others are trading, and it took me quite some time (and of course, some devastating losses) to emphasize the important of defense to some of the guys. Everyone on my team traded at another firm before they got on board, and we all did our own stuff and there was very little cohesiveness between me and anyone around me.
Mrs F is still having a solid year (up 25K), and that number sticks out like a sore thumb as she wanted to co-host the team with me but I declined. Sometimes I couldn't help it to wonder whether I will be doing better if I was still trading with her and M. It is very important to be in a winning atmosphere, to be among profitable traders, when everyone around me is losing money, it eventually sinks into that losing mentality.
I have to say all of my teammates are fantastic however. None of them caused me any headaches, all of them understanding and supporting of my leadership role (at least so far), and we have been doing some sharing and growing together of late (and I didn't write this paragraph because I am afraid they may ready my journal, as I actually encourage them to do so).
However, I just feel I can do more in a leadership role. I want to get them what they want (equipment, lower commission rates, etc), and I have only been able to fulfill 70% of the requests, as there is a serious lag time between me saying something and the firm does something, given that I am afterall, the youngest team leader in my firm with least experience. I want to lead them in scoring AND give them some good ideas every now and then.
That, in a way, is giving me additional pressure. I have said it the day I accepted the contract, that I got my feet wet in the management position too early. I knew it would be a rocky start, but I took it because I thought I would be able to overcome it.
A few years from now, I am sure I will look back on this and either say "I am glad I started early" or "that was the move that broke my spirit". Having said that, even right now, I still believe that you should never say no to an opportunity. If I am meant to be successful, I will be. If I am not, then I will fail whether I take the challenge or not.
Come to think of it, in my professional life, I have never endured a huge defeat, something that I believe is vital to anyone who is super successful. I mean, how will you know the fruit of victory is sweet, if you have never tasted the bitterness of defeat? It is precisely what makes her so precious to me, and I simply don't believe I have experienced any real setbacks of that level from my career yet.
I mean, I started working (at least part time) when I was 18, and every year I have increased my income substantially. Yes, I have missed out on opportunities, but for the most part it was like "well I wish I made this much more but this is still nothing to complain about".
Fast forward to late 2000, yes, the learning curve was brutal, but I fully expected it, and it was still a shortened learning curve (3 and 1/2 months), and I made 30K in two months as soon as I snapped out of it. I can't call that a disappointment.
That said, if I finish with say, 30K this year, it would be a huge disappointment, and it would be a true failure in my professional life, it would be a real road block, mental barrier, something that truly tests my fortitude.
And it would be something that I believe, everyone who ever became highly successful, went through, a very, very bad year/event/loss/setback.
I mean, come to think of it, at the age of 23 (by year end), if I made say 150-200K and have a dozen or two profitable traders on my squad, it would be too much of a red carpet, and I don't think I will ever truly appreciate it.
There is no victory without defeat. You don't know what is sweet until you know what is bitter. Being apart is to be together, someday.
If I am meant to fulfill my promise, I will power through this road block like all great individuals do, if I am not, then I will collapse under its spell.
On the bright side of things:
1) BKX seems to be tradable again, all of the banks (BK/WFC/STI/WB/WFC/C/BAC) seem to carry the type of range they carried around this time last year. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary syndrome or longer term fix, but if this sector stays like this for a few months I may get some serious scoring there. Now if only they can ressurect XTC . . .
2) STOCKKBROKER just turned positive for the year, and that's after commissions. Way to go! That make my team 3 out of 7 net positive for the year (I always include myself as there is both "T" and "E" in team), only one short of the 50% survival rate I set for myself before the year started. Two other guys are not very far from going net positive. Only one guy is down before commissions. Given the status of this rookie team, I can't ask for a much stronger start in this kind of market climate. Hopefully our team will develop a winning mentality and put together some streaks soon. I mean, it is a snowball situation, once you have a winning team, you will attract good players, and good players add to the chemistry and your team becomes better and better . . . I am starting to develop stronger confidence for my teammates and I believe this team can make it.
