I think what's happening is that the buyers keep stepping in. The ECB printing $500 Billion worth of Euros today didn't do much for the cause of paper vs gold. Imagine if you were China or Japan or Opec, and realized that while you were shifting reserves from dollars to Euro the ECB was busy firing up the presses to debase it, just like the US has done. At some point they are going to run to gold while the paper will still buy any.
February Gold (ZGG8)
- Thread starter Realist
- Start date
There is something very positive happening with gold these past few days. Even as the USDX is strengthening and the XEU, XBP and AUD are getting blasted, gold is holding up very nicely right at the 800 area. Gold now appears to be breaking out in all major currencies which was the exact recipe for the move that started in Fall of 2005. From that very point, gold moved up from $450 to $730. While the opportunity exists for the cartel to initiate a bear raid in gold, there are several layers of support below all in $5 increments. Its looking more likely now that the extreme weakness in the gold shares was intended to hit stop orders so that the boys could scoop up these lots before the next move higher. They pulled the same thing in Mid-August and the gold shares ended up being the best performers for the 3rd Qtr. I continue to remain long with a medium position in GCG8 and PLF8...
Realist,
I do believe we are getting a pop in gold, having been down at support, i think its time to test resistance. With the gold stocks in -ve territory, and the usd going up, up, up. I am not sure that its time to be bullish, until we hit well above the present level.
Just my 2 cents...plus, the markets are so thinly traded right now, a reliable trend cannot be established
I do believe we are getting a pop in gold, having been down at support, i think its time to test resistance. With the gold stocks in -ve territory, and the usd going up, up, up. I am not sure that its time to be bullish, until we hit well above the present level.
Just my 2 cents...plus, the markets are so thinly traded right now, a reliable trend cannot be established
Good points Sumo, volumes will continue to drop off until after the New Year. The one thing that I would like to point out though is that during bull trends for both gold and platinum, there tends to be upside moves that occur during the Xmas and New Year holidays. Right now I would rather stay positioned as I believe that the resolution in the now infamous gold triangle will be very large and very fast in order to keep as many traders out of gold before the move over $850 starts in earnest. Just my gut of course but that's how I'm playing it for now...
I've been trading gold off the charts since I am NOT a good fundamentalist. Actually I learn a lot of the fundamental side of the gold trade from Realist's posts.
However, as of this post I remain short based on the daily chart. I also think gold is waiting to see if the DX can take out that 77.58-77.80 area of resistance. It's been stalled there for a couple of days but hit 77.80 intraday today. It is however lacking in volume. This will be interesting.
However, as of this post I remain short based on the daily chart. I also think gold is waiting to see if the DX can take out that 77.58-77.80 area of resistance. It's been stalled there for a couple of days but hit 77.80 intraday today. It is however lacking in volume. This will be interesting.
This was my exact reason for trying out the short recently as well as the DX does continue to strengthen. As a result, gold is trading about $5 higher compared to when March DX was trading a full point lower. Since this reasoning did not transpire (and certainly didn't damage gold today with the DX move higher), I suspect that foreign buyers in the Euro Zone are buying gold as the XEU goes down against the dollar. I believe a lot of EU investors are watching the ECB inject unlimited amounts of liquidity into the banking system and they are becoming much more interested in gold as a result...
It is still a bit too early to confirm the positive resolution of the "golden triangle" to the upside but so far, it would appear that the resolution is to the upside just as this technical pattern originally suggested. I would still like to see a NY close over 825 basis February as this still represents a significant technical hurdle...
Have a great holiday everyone, I'll be away on vacation and taking some time away from the trading desk until after the New Year but I am staying positioned and will be fetching quotes from my PDA should upside surprises occur. I would likely add to ZGG8 positions on a NY close over 825 as I have commented on previously. I hope that my posts here has enlightened some of you about the precious metals futures arena. I wholeheartedly believe that the 1st half of 2008 will be one of the best bull phases in the PMs so prepare yourselves and your trading accounts accordingly 
Until 2008 guys, cheers...
Until 2008 guys, cheers...
Quote from Realist:
Have a great holiday everyone, I'll be away on vacation and taking some time away from the trading desk until after the New Year but I am staying positioned and will be fetching quotes from my PDA should upside surprises occur. I would likely add to ZGG8 positions on a NY close over 825 as I have commented on previously. I hope that my posts here has enlightened some of you about the precious metals futures arena. I wholeheartedly believe that the 1st half of 2008 will be one of the best bull phases in the PMs so prepare yourselves and your trading accounts accordingly
Until 2008 guys, cheers...
Hope you have a happy Christmas.. I always check in here.
Keep up the good work.