Fear of a catastrophe - a permabear's complex

[OldTrader]

Quote from whitster:

the analogy between 9/11 and 7/7 vis a vis market fundamentals is weak

here's why

they were TOTALLY different.

9/11 was a complete seachange and totally unexpected. the market HATES uncertainty. we have never had any significant terrorist attack like this on our native soil. as the news reports, etc. clearly show, the idea that the first one was a terrorist attack was far removed from people's minds, whereas in many countries that would have been the first assumption

we also lost thousands of lives, etc.

the subway bombing was a MUCH smaller incident, it happened well after we were already in a "war state" (thus expecting further attacks), it turned out to be a lot LESS serious than first imagined (exact opposite of 9/11 which just got worse and worse. one plane, then two, then more planes, then towers falling, etc.)

i'm all about TA, when scalping the dow. but if you honestly think it makes a difference whether the macd is trending upwards or we are above a trendline, or other such technical gobbledygook if a frigging missile hits a major US city, for example, you are completely nuts

there are very good reasons for the markedly different market reaction(s) to 7/7 vs. 9/11 and they have little to do with the technical state of the market

There was no "analogy" between 9/11 and the London bombings whitster. You missed the point of the post.

Perhaps you should contemplate what the effect of the London bombings might have been had the market been in the same condition as it was on 9/10/2001. That was the point of my post.

Better yet...rather than to imagine what the effect might have been, why don't you take a look at the effect of the Kennedy assassination in November of 1963 on an existing bull market. (A brief, sharp reaction down, followed by a rapid reaction back up which went to new highs, and then continued on in a bull market for the subsequent 6-7 months.)

My suggestion to you whitster would be to ponder the larger point being made rather than to become focused on the idea that 9/11 was a more serious event than the London bombings. No one is arguing that point at all.

OldTrader

 

[Bearbelly]

With all due respect Old Trader we are looking at things from different perspectives. You are a very experienced trader and I imagine taking a few thousand dollars hit would not cause you much pain whereas it would wipe my puny account out. This could easily happen at any time so I prefer to be short when I am in the market for the simple reason that, even in this bull market, this possibility, slim as it is, exists. Yes Im a little paranoid but since I much prefer trading from the short side anyhow its not a big problem for me.