Fear and The Market 1 of 2

Something that is an handicap you can exploit as an advantage. Each time you have great fear write it down, write also what the market did. After you have enough historical datas, look if there is a significant correlation : then you have a technical indicator of your own :D
 
Quote from fan27:

Good post Ramoutar. I have realized that I have almost zero fear of losing trades. It is fear of "missing out" that is my fear. This fear is by no means out of control, but it does cause me to take the half ass trades that are part of my setup, instead of just waiting for the good ones. I am in the process of making my SPY 1 minute trend following system as mechanical as possible. That way, I won't feel like I am "missing out" if my system did not dictate the trade.


I'm glad you enjoyed the post. Yes that is another fear I...missing out. I tried doing that too, dropping down timeframes. If I were you, I WOULD NOT DROP DOWN timeframes, (IF YOU'RE NOT USED TO IT). You may be causing more damage. You'll go from being a marksman, to a "tommy gun". I'm not going to say yo won't do better, but I would concentrate on staying with quality trades, dropping timeframes won'e solev he problem. Pretend that you're a venture capitalist worth BILLIONS and you only look at a few deals a day. Try that first.
 
Quote from bltrading:

I know when I make a trade, I always have and EST. I agree with not changing your EST during the trade for a couple of reasons. If you change your target or your stop during the trade for whatever reason. What will stop you from doing it next time? This leads to undisciplined trading......

RAMOUTAR SAYS...I agree

I have found in the 2 of the last few trades I've made, that when the stock started heading towards my stop, I felt that it was going to hit it and I would get taken out. I wanted to get out bad, but I didn't - and yes, I lost more when it hit my predetermined stop. I learned from it though... My entry was bad and undisciplined. I was afraid I was going to miss out. I've figured out from my trading over the last 2 months that when a stock starts heading towards my stop, it gets taken out. It happens right after I make the trade. Same is true when I am right on a stock. I'm now working harder to only take trades that are really close to the support I'm using. (I am a support/resistance guy) That way I can actually raise my P:L ratio by taking smaller losses. That is how my next few trades will go anyways.....

RAMOUTAR SAYS...By going long very close to support you are putting in VERY tight stops.

RAMOTEUR - Do you ever use a EST, that you ride. Meaning, do you sell half your position at the target and let it ride. Or do you always stick to exiting the whole position?

RAMOUTAR SAYS... No on full exposure trades, and yes on scaled trades (see below)

Just curious... My belief is that a stock that is going up, will continue to go up. Vice/versa with shorting. What do you think? I don't do this on every trade, just some of the one's I feel really good about. If you do, do you set another target for the half or go by feel? I have been going by feel on the half I ride. Now, of course I don't take a loss on it, I just use a trailing stop that I adjust. Like I said I'm support/resistance trader, so I try to get stocks that I think will actually break through resistance. Those are the ones I ride half on.


RAMOUTAR SAYS....I don't like trading on feel, I know that it's done nothing else but getme into trouble. I go with the EST and feeling I have before I entered, everything else in between is noise. I stick with EST, and don't allow myself to be in that situation. I save feel for the casino, I don't have anything else there. :)
Thanks, good read......


See my replies to your post (in the quote above), starting with "RAMOUTAR SAYS". I have also enclosed (below) a scaling strategy for a swing that I'm in now. You'll see what I mean when I adjust not EST, but add E, and adjust ST, feel free to refer to the QCOM daily when looking over the journal.

QCOM (scaling swing trade journal)
ST=short term (profits taken on failed patterns)
LT=longer term (profits taken at target on continuing patterns)

6/18/03

Bot 500 @ 34.70, stop at 34.10 ($ .60 risk) next entry 35.90 (or a target if pattern fails, $1.20 reward) LT target $38.72

risk= .60, reward = 1.20

I will use ST target if pattern fails. If pattern continues I will continue to average up and use LT target.

6/19

Bot 500 @ 36.50, new average price = $35.60 stop at $35.08 ( .52 loss) new ST target & LT target are the same, $38.72

risk= .52, reward = 3.12


7/2

Bot 500 @ 37.08, new average price = $36.09

raise stop to $35.24 (.85 loss) ST and LT target reduced to $38.18 (re-evaluated supply on daily)

risk = .85, reward = 2.09

7/3

I raised stop to $36.58 for 1,500 shares , target still at $38.18 will pick up last 500 at $37.90 if stock trades higher and takes out highs from 6/19. 7/1 and 7/2

On Monday, if I buy last 500 shares at $37.90 my avg cost will be $36.545. My stop will be raised to $37.15.

On 2,000 shares, if stopped, I get $1,220, if target is reached $3,280.


If stock doesn’t trade above the three highs, I’ll hold at 1,500 shares and my average cost is $36.09 and stick with $36.58 stop a $735 profit.

This is one of my swing trades. I provided to you as an example. NO FEAR here, I've planned for the worst. PM me with more question if you need blt! Happy4th.
 
Quote from fabrizio:



Jai

This is a pretty post- little verbose and long- but eventually very sound .

More people like you less "animal" ruined by wht is NOT a gambling casino, but a HARD, DIFFICULT, 24 hours a day WORK.
AND WHAT HELL OF A WORK


I'll need to hire an editor. :) Was it a pretty post, or pretty good post?

Be well.
 
Quote from harrytrader:

Something that is an handicap you can exploit as an advantage. Each time you have great fear write it down, write also what the market did. After you have enough historical datas, look if there is a significant correlation : then you have a technical indicator of your own :D


Right on!
 
You need to rework your rational for trailing stops. It is incorrect by any rational reasoning.

I suggest you disconnect from any postion considerations and deal with market conditions only.

My assumptions include the consideration that your exits are not related your buys or your stops. At least that is what I hope.

It is hard to believe that you leave as much money sidelined as you do. It will be very difficult to come up with a trationale for that whne you get to that consideration.

How will you ever get to optimizing your money velocity if you throw all these road blocks up?
 
Start a journal...

... also...

Too long... just hit the point and say...

Fear comes from the unknown...

Fear needs to be overcomed by confidence...

Confidence comes from knowledge and experience...

Knowledge and Experience leads to understanding, acceptance, respect and control(management) of risk.

Too much writing defers the point of a text...
 
Quote from bubba7:

You need to rework your rational for trailing stops. It is incorrect by any rational reasoning.

I suggest you disconnect from any postion considerations and deal with market conditions only.

My assumptions include the consideration that your exits are not related your buys or your stops. At least that is what I hope.

It is hard to believe that you leave as much money sidelined as you do. It will be very difficult to come up with a trationale for that whne you get to that consideration.

How will you ever get to optimizing your money velocity if you throw all these road blocks up?

Thanks, Bubba. Remember, those trailing stops are on a scaling swing trade. Not an all in position trade. On scaling positions I add as the backfill is put behind me, this gives me more secure stops. I use the same method when scaling on a intraday basis. This method has proven to work well in the context fo corresponding trend, especially in a position that has tighter intra day ranges. This scaling strategy also allows me to build a position more cautiously, rather than go all in on 2,000 shares at one time. The example I provided was to answer a question posed in the preceding post. The velocity of money is dictated by the velocity of the vehicle its riding, not the money and risk management strategy. At this point in the QCOM trade I have nothing to lose (if I am stopped out), and everything to gain (if the target is met). The flipside would be to expose myself for 2,000 shares off the bat, and increase my risk. Thanks for the exchange.
 
Quote from WDGann:

Start a journal...

... also...

Too long... just hit the point and say...

Fear comes from the unknown...

Fear needs to be overcomed by confidence...

Confidence comes from knowledge and experience...

Knowledge and Experience leads to understanding, acceptance, respect and control(management) of risk.

Too much writing defers the point of a text...

I said in an earlier post that I needed and editor, you'll be the first one I come to :) . BTW, can you sum up "War and Peace" for me?? :)
 
Back
Top