FB support at 50% of IPO price?

Quote from trader198:

recently saw a abc reporting, a 45+ old lady used her daughter pictures to hook a 45 old man (this guy also cheated claim him as a 20 somthing young guy used 20 yrs ago photos), and two high schoolers (one of the schooler is honest, tell everything about him, but another one use fake name/address), when the old lady said to bye bye to one of the high schoolers (the guy used fake name) and the old guy to meet the schooler who use true info., and the old man, the unhonest schooler, feel jealous about the schooler, got a gun, stalled at the meeting place, shoot dead the schooler used true name on a parking lot. while the old lady just pretend to meet, she did not show up really...
More...
:confused:
 
Hope so; I have alot of bets on this with a few people online and about 11 other people I know. 10 thought FB was the tits. 5 thought it was a 'shit-show' stock.

Some people thought I was full of shit and 1 or 2 believed (and put their money short) FB was a sub $10.00 stock before it stabilizes for the longer term.

I did some work on FB natal date--using techniques I learned from Myles Wilson Walker 10+ years ago vs several other successful IPO's in the last 7+years when I came up with $15.00 and change by mid November '12.

FB decline has accelerated quicker than I anticipated. I believe a 78.6% haircut from its high is 'do-able' by mid November. That would mean it touches sub $10.00 (may not close below their though).

I settled on mid $15.00's for several wagers. Broader market is doing its final rally into fall/early fall~~FB exhibits none of those characteristics as of yet.

I prefer FB to tumble into near year-end and then the real trading swings will be good (my opinion). I want to trade FB with weekly options (a new trading technique of mine--weekly options).

Blowing through $20 before Labor Day (to me) implies further weakside pressure. Acceleration of downtrend.
-------------------------------
06-04-12 03:42 PM

Quote from stephan31:

FB will be a GREAT swingtrading stock going forward (it is exhibiting good 'flow').

I have a bet with 15+ trader friends--

Low of $8.00 High of $28 and change is the total 'range' of all of their 'ghetto' bets.

My guesses were/are

1st target $23.62 by 9/21/12
2nd target $15.33 perhaps up to 3 weeks later.

By the end of the 'summer/early fall' selloff.

peace

hedvig
 
Quote from nillionaire:

I went long FB at 19.08 today and am holding over the weekend. A second straight close near the day's low is a bit concerning, but I wonder if that means Monday's close is likelier to be near the high?

Anyway I do find it interesting it showed strong support at 19, which is 50% of the IPO price. I looked at similar stocks to see how they reacted once they dropped around 50% of their IPO price:

ZNGA priced at 10, then dropped down to 4.78 (a 52% drop), and then bounced up to 6.35 (a 33% rise).

GRPN priced at 20, then dropped down to 9.63 (a 52% drop), and then bounced up to 14.93 (a 55% rise).

P priced at 16, then dropped down to 7.83 (a 51% drop), and then bounced up to 12.3 (a 57% rise).

I checked a few other stocks like LNKD, YELP, and Z, but those never dropped under their IPO price.

Hopefully this pattern continues with FB as well and it bounces from here into the mid-20s.
More...


So far it looks like you called it nillionaire.
:cool:

I still don't get the rationale behind the trade, but the numbers and price action don't lie.
This guy agrees with you too:

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/

Are you gonna take the profits and run, or hold on for more?
 
From an FT Article today:

Short interest in Facebook was hovering near record levels on Monday with investors having borrowed some 83 per cent of the 80.4m shares available for lending, according to data provider Markit.

That means 4.6 per cent of the publicly available shares in the company are now being held by investors betting on a further fall in the company’s share price.

The cost of borrowing shares has also continued to rise, making it more expensive to place shorts. “Once more than half the shares in lending programmes get borrowed, people generally charge more to borrow shares because of supply and demand in the market,” said Simon Colvin at Markit.

How many of these shorts are weak hands, looks like the weakest of them are already exiting. They will gun for these guys who sold as it broke $20 and try to push it in their face now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top