Not sure what <i>stat vol</i> is, but realized has been 90ish since FB went public. Of course, there aren't enough data to say anything meaningful about its true vol.
FB Options starting to trade tomorrow
- Thread starter eldorado1
- Start date
Not sure what <i>stat vol</i> is, but realized has been 90ish since FB went public. Of course, there aren't enough data to say anything meaningful about its true vol.
One thing to keep in mind, FB HAS NO SUPPORT. It's anyones guess when it bottoms out, why would anyone buy at this time?
> I stated since options have traded.
And I stated since FB has been public. So we've provided OP with two factoids.
> What is "true" vol?
Unobservable -- the point is, we have no basis on which to estimate it. BTW what's "stat vol"?
> Why trade a vol bet if the data, by your admission, isn't meaningful?
OP wants to trade FB options, not I. What am I "admitting"?
And I stated since FB has been public. So we've provided OP with two factoids.
> What is "true" vol?
Unobservable -- the point is, we have no basis on which to estimate it. BTW what's "stat vol"?
> Why trade a vol bet if the data, by your admission, isn't meaningful?
OP wants to trade FB options, not I. What am I "admitting"?
Quote from Rodney King:
> I stated since options have traded.
And I stated since FB has been public. So we've provided OP with two factoids.
> What is "true" vol?
Unobservable -- the point is, we have no basis on which to estimate it. BTW what's "stat vol"?
> Why trade a vol bet if the data, by your admission, isn't meaningful?
OP wants to trade FB options, not I. What am I "admitting"?
You implied that IV at 60% was low, or at least not overpriced. IV in weeklies hit 70+ today and the June monthly is 68-70%.
It's analogous to you stating that you cannot see the future and therefore there is nothing meaningful to say about it(the future). Obviously trading is a bet on an future outcome. IV is the market's determination of a fwd fair-value figure on realized vol to those expiration dates. I consider the ATM IV and term-structure the best predictor of realized vol, yet I am still shorting 70-vol.
Stat vol = statistical vol = realized vol. It's more efficient short-hand.
Too much risk in FB to risk any real money. This stock doesn't yet have a "history." That being said I think volatility will fall... http://www.strategic-options-trading.com/implied-volatility.html