Don't put your stomach in the market, you'll puke....
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Faz $8.65 Srs $26.60
- Thread starter JRworldwide
- Start date
Don't put your stomach in the market, you'll puke....
Ok well I coulda sold it at 8.40 already for 4% profit, but I held on.
Have a great weekend everyone.
Scot
Have a great weekend everyone.
Scot
I'm not too sure about that FAZ bet though.
We've seen 2 days of HH, HL, and today had about 20% higher volume than yesterday..... and while this means NOTHING about what's gonna happen on Monday, I'd be unwilling to go against the present trend.
If there was a lower high, I'd say ok then for a FAZ hold over the weekend.
But hell, with the volatility these have, you could open down 5% and still get it all back in the first 10 minutes.
We've seen 2 days of HH, HL, and today had about 20% higher volume than yesterday..... and while this means NOTHING about what's gonna happen on Monday, I'd be unwilling to go against the present trend.
If there was a lower high, I'd say ok then for a FAZ hold over the weekend.
But hell, with the volatility these have, you could open down 5% and still get it all back in the first 10 minutes.
Attachments
I'm leveraged into both FAZ and FAS options with a SLIGHT bias towards FAZ, but that reversal really killed me because I releveraged heavier into FAZ only to have FAS bounce from 7.83 to 8.70...
Monday my wire is going through so I'll have more than just a joke sum to play with, but still these reversals are unreal, like a fight of epic proportions between optimism and pessimism.
Monday my wire is going through so I'll have more than just a joke sum to play with, but still these reversals are unreal, like a fight of epic proportions between optimism and pessimism.
Quote from Haroki:
I'm not too sure about that FAZ bet though.
We've seen 2 days of HH, HL, and today had about 20% higher volume than yesterday..... and while this means NOTHING about what's gonna happen on Monday, I'd be unwilling to go against the present trend.
If there was a lower high, I'd say ok then for a FAZ hold over the weekend.
But hell, with the volatility these have, you could open down 5% and still get it all back in the first 10 minutes.
You are kinda missing the bet. Even in this strong bull market (you know what I mean), the market always has a quick dip in the morning, even if the trend is up. It's people in the morning doing a quick sell off. On monday its a bit more dramatic, and it's also more dramatic after a market high, which we just had today.
I can fairly rest assured that even if I make no money, I will be able to break-even when the market dips.
Quote from scot.mcpherson:
You are kinda missing the bet. Even in this strong bull market (you know what I mean), the market always has a quick dip in the morning, even if the trend is up. It's people in the morning doing a quick sell off. On monday its a bit more dramatic, and it's also more dramatic after a market high, which we just had today.
I can fairly rest assured that even if I make no money, I will be able to break-even when the market dips.
or.....
The end of day pullback is all you're gona get.
I've noticed that FAS/FAZ both have the same characteristic. On just about any day - maybe 80% - if they finish strong, the following day they open down. And if they finish weak, the next day they open up.
There's no way to know.
Quote from Haroki:
or.....
The end of day pullback is all you're gona get.
I've noticed that FAS/FAZ both have the same characteristic. On just about any day - maybe 80% - if they finish strong, the following day they open down. And if they finish weak, the next day they open up.
There's no way to know.
You are making it more complicated than it needs to be. I am betting the market is going to go down at and immediately after the morning bell. Not for the whole day, just the morning bell. It almost always does this 80% of the time. FAZ is just the vehicle I am making that bet with. I got it at a good price, within .20 of its low for the day which was also it's all time low, which translates to the market nearly reaching another higher high at the end of the day.
When the market closes at a high, it almost ... I say almost .... always dips the next morning and over the weekends more dramatically.
I am with Scott on this one for the following reasons:
1. Strong upward momentum into the close.
2. Pre-market is almost always a suckers spot for buy-in (see the 13$ gap up pre-market on FAZ, how many people bought in at the top and got killed?)
3. We are probably headed upward until May 4th, but because the DOW gapped up on Friday, it will most likely fill the gap Monday, as people consolidate and take their profits.
I believe:
1.Pre-market FAS trading will gap it up near the 9$ mark.
2. Upon opening bell, people will massively sell off the financials and bring FAS back down considerably near 8$.
3. The rest of the day will see choppy DOW trading, either best to sit this one out or take a small position in FAZ.
My plan of action:
1. Sell my FAS MAY 5 calls for roughly a 15% or so profit upon opening bell.
2. Cover my MAY 9 uncovered sold calls on FAZ for ~25% profit @ bell.
3. Maintain my uncovered sold call positions in FAS and my call positions in FAZ and watch for:::
a) DOW breaks out of 8130
-->Bias heavy towards FAS
b) DOW falls out of 8000, look for it to fill the 50pt marginal gap downward to 7950.
-->Bias heavy towards FAZ
1. Strong upward momentum into the close.
2. Pre-market is almost always a suckers spot for buy-in (see the 13$ gap up pre-market on FAZ, how many people bought in at the top and got killed?)
3. We are probably headed upward until May 4th, but because the DOW gapped up on Friday, it will most likely fill the gap Monday, as people consolidate and take their profits.
I believe:
1.Pre-market FAS trading will gap it up near the 9$ mark.
2. Upon opening bell, people will massively sell off the financials and bring FAS back down considerably near 8$.
3. The rest of the day will see choppy DOW trading, either best to sit this one out or take a small position in FAZ.
My plan of action:
1. Sell my FAS MAY 5 calls for roughly a 15% or so profit upon opening bell.
2. Cover my MAY 9 uncovered sold calls on FAZ for ~25% profit @ bell.
3. Maintain my uncovered sold call positions in FAS and my call positions in FAZ and watch for:::
a) DOW breaks out of 8130
-->Bias heavy towards FAS
b) DOW falls out of 8000, look for it to fill the 50pt marginal gap downward to 7950.
-->Bias heavy towards FAZ