You're looking to too many indicators, which is always a beginner mistake. You need only about a couple of them besides price, volume, trendlines. But you have to understand them well: how they're calculated, what they're showing, what are their limitations, adjust their parameters to the characteristics of the market and time frame you're trading.
Favorite indicators for trading the S&P500 E-minis?
- Thread starter silvermotion
- Start date
"No risk trades?" I understand low risk. But no risk? Grob, you have outdone yourself.
I often speak about no risk trades....to very specific kinds of folks.
I definitely had to resist posting into the ES thread on Thursday.....most could see it coming like a freight train, I would imagine.
All beginners only have the right, with one contract, to do no risk trades until they double. That is, make 40 points on the ES with one contract margin (or the equivalent in another market).
The risk map of the ES (or equivalent) is something beginners would not know about or understand. Therefore, it is a good idea for beginners to saddle up with a prson that can show them the no risk area of the map.
It is not a good idea for mostly any trader to get the idea of any no risk areas on the risk map. There cannot possibly be any no risk areas for a lot of people because of their viewpoint of the market and its operations. It always has risk anywhere for these people. For them, the very nature of the market is a risk circumstance.
Glance at "reversion to the mean" as an idea. Consider wash trades for a moment.
Look at the long term average daily profit for 1 contract of ES for ET traders as the standard. 1/4 point , 1/2 point and 3/4 point averages are to only lessor ones available for the 6 1/2 hour trading day. How risky is it to work all day and only make one of these four long term averages? Which is most risky?
This thread was started by a person who watches several one minute charts of the ES and he has many tools showing on these charts. He is at killer risk levels and had a basis of getting to the sidelines for the day as soon as possible. He is a very high risk beginning trader.
You state that you are a non natural trader. A high risk trader by nature it turns out.
What is market risk? What is trader risk? How do they compound each other?
I mentor others. All of them only do no risk trades when they are beginners. How can that be? It is obvious I would say.
After a trader begins with me and doubles doing no risk trades, he takes his initial capital out of the market. Then he may do trades involving risk. Everything has changed for him at this point but then he is in a place where he has made the proper beginning in my opinion.
So you still may not catch what I am saying simply because of my messianic mein. Or any other assortment of your views of me.
My view is that there are many many ways of making money trading. One of the best ways is to have a chance to do no risk trades until you first double your capital (albeit with the minumum possible on the line at first).
The thread starter is using 10 contracts to make 2 to 4 points and quit for the day. Risky business; he stays in all day long if he is losing.
I vote for trading only with no risk and trading all day long when possible.
I am almost at the point where it is necessary to explain what no risk trading is two different ways (market and trader).*
Draw a horizontal line where you believe the market will trade every day, at the beginning of the day, for a month. Count the times price crosses that line at the end of the day. Back plot all the lines of that day that had the same or more crossings on adjacent tick values. No risk trading is coming into view.
*See attached
Two points. First, "no risk" means certainty. Certainty means seeing the future with perfect clarity within at least a confined framework. To my knowledge, precognition is not a tool typically used by traders of the mortal variety.
Second, you mentioned doing "no risk" trades until initial trading capital is doubled. Why stop there? Why would the trader not trade "no risk" into perpetuity? If someone can theoretically place a "no risk" trade, then why not simply continue to do so with all of one's capital each and every time. After all, the reason mortals only risk a small fraction of their trading capital on any single trade is because of the risk element and the respect for uncertainty. But "no risk" means certainty. And certainty implies no need for any risk control if we are to take the term at face value.
Understandably, I am confused on both counts.
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SilverMo;
Usually dont download sfuff from people I dont know personally-very well;
but I did a low/no risk download on [Grob,page3, this thread] that download quote ''no rockets before 11;00am will be passed up under any circumstances[This is free no risk income]''
Glad i wasnt too QUICK on correcting Grob on a ''no risk derivative trade;
because he is doing ''no risk'' as a helpful personal /help contract/beginners agreement.
Moving averages can help, like 50 period/60 minute candle chart;
also like PSAR, not in a strict mechanical sense, but as a reminder.Actually ma help more on stocks than daytrading derivatives
Probably the most helpful/beginning no lagging indicator is simply trading 1 ES contract;
even if profitable in stocks, ES is a different market
SilverMo;
Like moving averages, but was talking about the ma that overline/underline price, with all due respect for mr Appell, inventor of MACD.Stocks differ from ES,YM. Not saying its impossible, probably an experienced ES trader could use MACD
Especially with your 1 minute charts frankly dont see how you are going to use well all those moving averages/MACD;
much less, all those indicators.
And i read fast also;
looks like too much time required to decide,reguardless if on a 1 or 60 minute candlechart
Like moving averages, but was talking about the ma that overline/underline price, with all due respect for mr Appell, inventor of MACD.Stocks differ from ES,YM. Not saying its impossible, probably an experienced ES trader could use MACD
Especially with your 1 minute charts frankly dont see how you are going to use well all those moving averages/MACD;
much less, all those indicators.
And i read fast also;
looks like too much time required to decide,reguardless if on a 1 or 60 minute candlechart
until we reach the point that ma's are not rejected as non usable tools, we can't reach the final answer..........they are the best, most clear, almost 100% as you can get ........signals..........it just takes a few years to get there and no one is going to do the work required except for a few and they will stumble all over it and over it again and again never finding the code..........ma's with code? when a few hundred thousands of possibilities exist..........not likely to be found but it is there ........i see it each day...........no brag..........pure facts.........trust me, ma's work......the question is which ma's and which combination of ma's .......commingled or 2 or 3 simple ma's ,,,,,,,,exp ma's........100% mechanical system .........discretionary requires emotion.........my system doesn't allow emotion......cut and dried....all default set......entry and exit signal is only 2 and always seen ........