You don't have enough experience to see what will happen given you scenario.
This situation will be an invaluable learning experience for you. You should keep a notebook of deficits numbers, pe's, charts, interest rates etc. Next time this happens you will be prepared.
The debt is far surpassing any of Barry's estimates just like unemploment. The US will have massive deficits. The dollar as it stands now is NOT trading on the economy it is still trading as a risk trade and all asset prices are correllated. The fed is almost done buying treasuries and rates are going up and it's going to hurt bad.
What that means is if the economy gets strong, say 3% GDP, then oil is right back to 150, gas to 4 and metals prices sky high again. If that happens then the dollar gets extremely weak and inflation kicks in. Inflation kicks in or rates go up 100 bps. it absolutely kills any housing recovery. That doesn't even count the stimulus money, which is simply a short term solution, you can't build road and bridges forever, read about the nazi economy.
If that doesn't happen we still have massive deficits, sub par growth and growing unemployment and a very very unhappy population.
In any case barry is toast, watch what happens next year in the elections.The democrats will lose far more than expected. People are fed up, these aren't geriatric mobs running around, these are people who are angry and sick of being ripped off by their elected officials not right wing nuts.
Now if believe the equity market is a barometer or predictor of future growth, forget it. That's a lie. It's a barometer of how much money is coming into equities which is based on the masses expectations of future growth and as we know the masses are usually wrong. If the mkt reaches the 11k area which it looks like it will, sell every investment you have and short the shit out of everything you can get your hands on.
The market isn't rallying on anything but false hope and that the world will not end. A year ago our financial system almost collapsed and to believe that and the economy is reparied to warrant any kind of strong rebound is foolish BUT as I previously stated the stock market isn't based in reality, just expectations and where the money is going and that's really all that matters, reality and facts have no place in equities.
The best thing that could happen to Barry is if the right gets it's act together and forces barry into decsions like they did with bill clinton to fix this mess.
Quote from insider trading:
Everything is working for Obama right now.all indicators show that the economy is improving.Jobs is a lagging indicator
in 2011 troops leaving Iraq and progress from stimulus money flooding the economy will be played on TV non stop.Only 60 billion out of 800 billion of stimulus money has been released,when Obama floods the economy with the majority of the money the economy will improve, even if its artificial, the American people wont know thats its artificial
People may be getting pissed with Obama ,but that doesn't mean people will automatically vote for the Republican.It often takes a very strong candidate to beat a sitting President,The repubs don't have one.The smartest repubs know it is better to wait until 2016 to run
