https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-support-warrens-ultramillionare-tax/
FEB. 8, 2019, AT 6:01 AM
Most Americans Support Warren’s ‘Ultramillionare Tax
Sixty-three percent of Americans believe “upper income people” pay too little in taxes, according to a new survey from Morning Consult. The poll also found that 61 percent of Americans either “strongly” or “somewhat” favor 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren’s tax plan, which would levy a new tax on households with a net worth of $50 million or more. The pollster found less enthusiasm for the idea that Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York floated recently to tax income that exceeds $10 million a year at a rate of 70 percent — but more on that in a moment.
It isn’t shocking that a majority of Americans support higher taxes on the wealthy. Gallup has routinely found that most Americans think upper-income people pay “too little”1 in federal taxes since it first asked the question in 1992. In April of 2018, that number was 62 percent, according to Gallup — roughly the same as what Morning Consult found.
Warren’s tax plan has been described as an “ultramillionaire tax” that aims to make the rich pay taxes on accumulated wealth. It would place a 2 percent tax on households whose net worth exceeds $50 million and then an additional 1 percent (so 3 percent total) on those worth more than $1 billion. The plan has faced some criticism, including claims that it’s unconstitutional. Interestingly, however, the support for the plan appears to be somewhat bipartisan, according to the Morning Consult poll: 74 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of Republicans said they strongly or somewhat favor the proposal.
On the other hand, the 70 percent marginal tax rate mentioned by Ocasio-Cortez on income above $10 million did not receive the backing of a majority of respondents in the Morning Consult poll; just 45 percent said they strongly or somewhat favor the proposal. More Democrats than Republicans said they supported it, 60 percent vs. 31 percent. Ocasio-Cortez has said the resulting tax revenue could be used to fund the “Green New Deal,” a massive government investment to eliminate the use of fossil fuels in 12 years. While a top marginal rate of 70 percent would be a major change — the top rate is currently 37 percent on income above about $500,000 — it would be comparable to the top rate at different points in U.S. history.
However, even though the public has long thought the rich don’t pay enough in taxes, Americans are comparably cooler toward the concept when it’s framed as income redistribution, which Warren and Ocasio-Cortez have both embraced as a way of combating wealth inequality. For example, in 2016, Gallup found that 61 percent of the public felt that wealthy people didn’t pay enough, but only 52 percent said they believed the government should redistribute wealth through “heavy taxes on the rich.” The difference gets at a common disconnect in how people think of taxation and wealth redistribution — both processes that collect a portion of residents’ income and use it to benefit others — and how different terms can produce seemingly inconsistent answers from poll respondents. So in the forthcoming battle over public opinion, we can expect Warren to talk about taxing the “tippy-top 0.1 percent,” who Americans don’t feel pay enough in taxes, while her critics slam the proposal as wealth redistribution, a concept that’s more divisive.
