FAS/FAZ for New Week 4/27

[Smart Money]

Quote from scot.mcpherson:

either way, break even price for me is around .09 gain a share for this position, so unless the price falls MORE than .10, the price isn't any better it's actually worse. I need a gain of .10 just to make literally 1 or 2 dollars, after that each penny is worth more, but still unless I make .25 cent gain, its really not worth risking leaving the position hoping for better. It's one of the reasons why I need to learn to hold longer, ESPECIALLY for example when holding for 3 days nearly gaurantees a return, but getting out NOW incurs a loss.

I held on when FAS @ 8.06 when it tanked down below 7, and I came back into the black and could have even profitted a crap ton more than I have right now if I held it until today and reversed my position today.

Always hindsight is 20/20, I am just glad that I am learning from these mistakes before they cost many thousands or tens of thousands of dollars.

I haven't been doing this very long at all, though I've watched charts for 30+ years. Seriously, you can't think about "if onlys" because they will eat you up. I was long the other day due, as you're describing, and the charts told me to get out. Even though prices rose, I was happy because I did the right thing textbook-wise. Once you make a trade, learn from it, and forget everything else about it...especially profit and loss.

SM

 

[Haroki]

Quote from scot.mcpherson:

either way, break even price for me is around .09 gain a share for this position, so unless the price falls MORE than .10, the price isn't any better it's actually worse. I need a gain of .10 just to make literally 1 or 2 dollars, after that each penny is worth more, but still unless I make .25 cent gain, its really not worth risking leaving the position hoping for better. It's one of the reasons why I need to learn to hold longer, ESPECIALLY for example when holding for 3 days nearly gaurantees a return, but getting out NOW incurs a loss.

I held on when FAS @ 8.06 when it tanked down below 7, and I came back into the black and could have even profitted a crap ton more than I have right now if I held it until today and reversed my position today.

Always hindsight is 20/20, I am just glad that I am learning from these mistakes before they cost many thousands or tens of thousands of dollars.

Honestly, if it were me, and I had the PDT rule hanging over me until Monday, I'd take a 5% gain, then sell half and match my holding with a FAS position, then walk away market neutral until tomorrow.

Rinse and repeat tomorrow.

You give up the potential for a home run to hit singles, but I'd be more conservative under those constraints.

 

[scot.mcpherson]

Looks liek the market is worming its way back up.

 

[scot.mcpherson]

This is what I think is going to happen....DOn't know whether I am right or wrong, but this is what I think

The market is going to close near its previous close, whether higher or lower, tomorrow the market is going to drop to close and the weekend is going to show a huge gap down on the DOW and that will be the best exit point for FAZ.

That's what I think will happen right now....I might change my mind in 10 minutes though so don't write it in stone.

 

[Haroki]

Quote from scot.mcpherson:

Looks liek the market is worming its way back up.

Looks like a defense of 8200/875.

I'm in FAZ, but will dump it if I need to.

Not willing to hold overnight here unless I see something......

 

[Eko_Trader]

Quote from Haroki:

Looks like a defense of 8200/875.

I'm in FAZ, but will dump it if I need to.

Not willing to hold overnight here unless I see something......

SPOT ON!!! They are holding those levels. I trade futures primarily, and the 870 is trying to hold as a support level. I just had the feeling today will be very interesting

 

[Haroki]

And here comes the sell off.

TRIN/VIX spiking yet AGAIN!!

This'll be the last test before the dump?

Any thoughts?

 

[Eko_Trader]

Quote from Haroki:

And here comes the sell off.

TRIN/VIX spiking yet AGAIN!!

This'll be the last test before the dump?

Any thoughts?

Nah I think the dump will be tomorrow. The easy money for the day were the sellers at 8300 on the dow.

EDIT: I'll be very careful on the short side if S&P closes above 875

 

[TraderSU]

Quote from Eko_Trader:

Nah I think the dump will be tomorrow. The easy money for the day were the sellers at 8300 on the dow.

So who is holding FAZ tonight? And what about the weekend?

Any strategy for the may-4 announcement?

 

[scot.mcpherson]

Too early to say whose holding faz, I'll let you know at 4pm

I am holding it now, but we'll see what happens in the last 45 minutes of the game.