Don't put your money on it, Playa. It'll have to go up $2 today...there's no rally like that on the horizon for the financials, but who knows.
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Fas/faz - 5/4
- Thread starter scot.mcpherson
- Start date
Don't put your money on it, Playa. It'll have to go up $2 today...there's no rally like that on the horizon for the financials, but who knows.
Quote from Eko_Trader:
Don't put your money on it, Playa. It'll have to go up $2 today...there's no rally like that on the horizon for the financials, but who knows.
Hehe, I meant the fact that it already almost reached $13...I sold my FAS for $12.95, so I know it almost hit it.
Actually I just rechecked it closed @ $13.01 on a 2 minute chart @ 7:14 AM, not sure if that was the highest trade in that two minutes or not, but I don't have candlestick charts available to me while I am at work. Google finance had candlestick charts for a little while, but they took it down. Hmm.
Anyway its on its way back up for the moment...Scary
I missed the jump from 10.75 to 11.40...I should have hopped on. I thought about it, but wasn't sure it was a good idea...hindsight again.
Quote from scot.mcpherson:
I missed the jump from 10.75 to 11.40...I should have hopped on. I thought about it, but wasn't sure it was a good idea...hindsight again.
I see what you're saying about FAS at 13...with the way the market is acting, DOW 14000 in 2 hrs may just happen.
Hindsight is always sharper than an eagle's eye.
Again its happening, the dow opens higher FAS opens and trades to a low of 10.67, it then takes off above $11.40 to new intraday highs just as the DOW tops 130+ points, now the dow is off its higher trading up around 100 while FAS continues to holds its own ground, amazing. I'm looking for a complete breakdown on FAS today below $10 a share. It doesn't take much to move these 3X etfs.
Just some thoughts about FAS and FAZ and making bets on them. Notwithstanding that it seems we are in a bull market right now, and have been essentially since begining of the new market between march 6th & 9th and an even stronger bull market since april 17th, it seems tha FAS is a much safer bet than FAZ. Even during the bear market trend of the last couple years (most notably since November 2008 since tha'ts the begining of of life for FAS/FAZ), FAZ has always tended down and only spiked during sever downturns. It always seems to return to baseline and the baseline continues to loose value. Yes you can make some money with FAZ, but if you make a gamble, and it doesn't work out in your favor, you have nearly zero chance of ever gaining that value back without a serious hiccup in the market. It's pretty much gone for forever (again lucky momentary spikes not withstanding)
FAS on the otherhand, even if you make a poor judgement call and enter a position at an extreme high, you can hold out and it will within a few days or perhaps couple weeks gain your value back and perhap even make a nice profit from it.
Now this assumes we remain in the bull market, in a bear market FAS looses value, but FAZ tends to loose baseline value regardless of whether its a bull or bear market. Now this might change once FAZ finds it true baseline bottom value. We have however, thought we've reached it so many times now. Who can any longer attempt to guess what that basement baseline value it?
Can you trade your way back to previous cost basis? Sure, I have done it, all of you have done it (I am hoping). But when it comes to matters of "risk management" what do you think about the above assessment?
FAS on the otherhand, even if you make a poor judgement call and enter a position at an extreme high, you can hold out and it will within a few days or perhaps couple weeks gain your value back and perhap even make a nice profit from it.
Now this assumes we remain in the bull market, in a bear market FAS looses value, but FAZ tends to loose baseline value regardless of whether its a bull or bear market. Now this might change once FAZ finds it true baseline bottom value. We have however, thought we've reached it so many times now. Who can any longer attempt to guess what that basement baseline value it?
Can you trade your way back to previous cost basis? Sure, I have done it, all of you have done it (I am hoping). But when it comes to matters of "risk management" what do you think about the above assessment?
Quote from S2007S:
Again its happening, the dow opens higher FAS opens and trades to a low of 10.67, it then takes off above $11.40 to new intraday highs just as the DOW tops 130+ points, now the dow is off its higher trading up around 100 while FAS continues to holds its own ground, amazing. I'm looking for a complete breakdown on FAS today below $10 a share. It doesn't take much to move these 3X etfs.
True, but comare FAS and the DOW charts. FAS follows the market trends in the longer term.
Quote from scot.mcpherson:
True, but comare FAS and the DOW charts. FAS follows the market trends in the longer term.
And for the record, I am staying out of the market, I should have hopped on for that short ride on FAS this morning, but unless I see another entry point I feel comfortabel about exiting today, I am not going to waste a day trade. I am not holding FAS over the weekend. Even though lately each day seems to have its own rules, Monday's have historically been down days, and I don't want to be caught holding over the weekend. Maybe if the price drops amazingly mid day and then starts trending upward again, then I might do a FAS weekend hold, but otherwise I am out until the market resets over the weekend and starts fresh. I suspect that monday will be very low (relatively speaking) and hope to get in on a low low and hold for the week or at least until what appears to be the highest high for the week if I can estimate that it is. For me I use the daily charts to see how much resistance there is to a similar peak. That's how I called the FAZ at 6.70 peak earlier in the week and got out, the daily chart simply looked like other daily charts for similar days. I got lucky and was right, but it's helpful to use charts from many time frames to decide where you want to be, not just the intraday charts.
Disclaimer, just sharing my thoughts and documenting what I think, I don't think I know better than anyone else. I am a newb trying to learn as much as I can. Please, keep that in mind before you flame.
Quote from scot.mcpherson:
Just some thoughts about FAS and FAZ and making bets on them. Notwithstanding that it seems we are in a bull market right now, and have been essentially since begining of the new market between march 6th & 9th and an even stronger bull market since april 17th, it seems tha FAS is a much safer bet than FAZ. Even during the bear market trend of the last couple years (most notably since November 2008 since tha'ts the begining of of life for FAS/FAZ), FAZ has always tended down and only spiked during sever downturns. It always seems to return to baseline and the baseline continues to loose value. Yes you can make some money with FAZ, but if you make a gamble, and it doesn't work out in your favor, you have nearly zero chance of ever gaining that value back without a serious hiccup in the market. It's pretty much gone for forever (again lucky momentary spikes not withstanding)
FAS on the otherhand, even if you make a poor judgement call and enter a position at an extreme high, you can hold out and it will within a few days or perhaps couple weeks gain your value back and perhap even make a nice profit from it.
Now this assumes we remain in the bull market, in a bear market FAS looses value, but FAZ tends to loose baseline value regardless of whether its a bull or bear market. Now this might change once FAZ finds it true baseline bottom value. We have however, thought we've reached it so many times now. Who can any longer attempt to guess what that basement baseline value it?
Can you trade your way back to previous cost basis? Sure, I have done it, all of you have done it (I am hoping). But when it comes to matters of "risk management" what do you think about the above assessment?
Your assessment is a fair one about what's happening NOW.
That's cuz I think recent events - bull market - is skewing your memory/opinions.
If/once we get into a bear market again, you will be thinking that "FAS never gets back to its previous level if you hold long enough...."
The truth is, they BOTH degrade an equal amount over time, on a long enough timeline. It's just that the ETF that is in agreement with the dominant trend won't degrade as much and/or remain unnoticed on a shorter timeline.