Farmers Will Drive Ferraris, Not Bankers: Jim Rogers

[Bob111]

farmers are driving Lamborghinis for quite some time-

http://www.lamborghini-tractors.com...tytypecustomfields=DESCR_OVERVIEW&idproduct=4

 

[Bob111]

Wall Street's Brutal Job Cuts Are About To Get Much Worse

http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahto...-brutal-job-cuts-are-about-to-much-get-worse/

there is an opportunity for bankers to became a farmers

 

[Swan Noir]

Here is what I don't get about the talking heads. Why not make the dramatic prediction but leave off the moronic conclusion that has to be wrong?

Let's assume you accept the gloom and doom scenario of Faber and Roger ... hype inflation, why would that leave a smart banker out on the street selling apples.

JP Morgan when asked what the market would do famously said "it will fluctuate". Are the guys at Goldman going to be oblivious to the fact that inflation begins to get out of control? Are the going to stay long the 30 year bond in that circumstance or are they more likely to be short the paper and long the hard asset?

The average trader on Goldman's or Barclay's government desk will make many times what the average farmer in East Bumfuck will make even as (or as a consequence of) the world falling apart. Everyone at the big financial institutions loves volatility. M&A guys will restructure and merge the victims, others in corporate finance will fund those acquisitions, the trading desk will arb the paper etc, etc, etc.

I would not pass the hat for bankers just yet.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Swan Noir:

Here is what I don't get about the talking heads. Why not make the dramatic prediction but leave off the moronic conclusion that has to be wrong?

Let's assume you accept the gloom and doom scenario of Faber and Roger ... hype inflation, why would that leave a smart banker out on the street selling apples.

JP Morgan when asked what the market would do famously said "it will fluctuate". Are the guys at Goldman going to be oblivious to the fact that inflation begins to get out of control? Are the going to stay long the 30 year bond in that circumstance or are they more likely to be short the paper and long the hard asset?

The average trader on Goldman's or Barclay's government desk will make many times what the average farmer in East Bumfuck will make even as (or as a consequence of) the world falling apart. Everyone at the big financial institutions loves volatility. M&A guys will restructure and merge the victims, others in corporate finance will fund those acquisitions, the trading desk will arb the paper etc, etc, etc.

I would not pass the hat for bankers just yet.

I agree with you on the conclusion. My favorite is peak oil. I've seen all the documentaries which show roving gangs. Why do they never show Gone With the Wind and tell you this is how it was before we had oil? We'll still be able to fight a more or less organized civil war if we have to. And that is with no electricity to boot.

Don't even get me started on Goldbugs.

 

[mm19]

Quote from Swan Noir:



I would not pass the hat for bankers just yet.

i would agree with you until recently. One of these guys tried to convince me that borrowing 1M and investing in property makes you richer for 2M !! So borrow, whatever you can get and you (with other alike) become too big to fail. same they did and proven right during gfc.

could be true but this type of behaviour fails at some point. until it fails, they can stay in investmetn banks.

 

[377OHMS]

Quote from Bear-Attack:

Some porn stars and prostitutes have highly expensive cars.

Unity probability that it is Bearice.

 

[Swan Noir]

That's the guy they are giving the boot who will end up shoveling shit on a pig farm. Wouldn't judge The Street's ability to prosper based on his comment.

Quote from mm19:

One of these guys ...

[/B]

 

[ntt]

Quote from kxvid:

...he seems to ignore the effects of backwardation roll on commodity investments, which is a severe drag to performance. He never mentions such costs in his book "Hot commodities", a severe omission. If roll costs are high enough, you can actually lose money even if say you are long sugar and it goes up say 15% YTD. That is the fatal flaw in his strategy, and the reason why the roger commodity index has severely underperformed other asset classes.

Great point. People who peddle "investing in futures" never give a single thought to roll effects. But good luck getting that point across to many traders who think that because the futures are correlated with the underlying, they work as an investment.

 

[Swan Noir]

The "roll" in many of these instruments is the ultimate transaction cost. It is sickening how these talking heads leave this out of the equation. The resulting presentation then equals pure BS.

Quote from kxvid:

Jim rogers is a broken record: "buy commodities". Well, he seems to ignore the effects of backwardation roll on commodity investments, which is a severe drag to performance.

]

 

[TGregg]

Quote from Bear-Attack:

A 100 kg healthy man drinks 9 litres of water everyday.

JFC! That "healthy man" better take some salt pills. Mayo Clinic says 3 liters per day is the healthy goal.