FAO Rearden Metal - Clinton prospects for 08

Rearden Metal, what probability would you give Hillary to win?

She is 40-45% right now to win, so what is your reasoning behind why the betting money is wrong?
And do you plan to capitalize on this inefficiency?
 
Quote from Bob Rowshan:

Rearden Metal, what probability would you give Hillary to win?

She is 40-45% right now to win, so what is your reasoning behind why the betting money is wrong?
And do you plan to capitalize on this inefficiency?
More...


been waiting for the right time to short hillary, its a sure winner.

surf
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

been waiting for the right time to short hillary, its a sure winner.

surf
More...

Interesting. But how about giving us a value where you will actually short her...45 isn't enough ?
 
Quote from Bob Rowshan:

Rearden Metal, what probability would you give Hillary to win?

She is 40-45% right now to win, so what is your reasoning behind why the betting money is wrong?
And do you plan to capitalize on this inefficiency?
More...

"Rearden Metal, what probability would you give Hillary to win?"
---> That's really hard to say. Until recently I've been saying that she has ZERO chance of becoming president. Honestly, now I'm not sure.

The thing about highly repulsive people like Hillary, is that when people are constantly exposed to them, this familiarity starts to dull the effect of their repulsiveness. It's like, on first impression some people can be extremely good looking and others quite ugly... but once you spend a lot of time with people, they all seem to move towards the middle of the attractiveness scale... know what I mean?

I really should have taken this into consideration- The fact that as people see Hill-dog's face in the media day in and day out, she may begin to appear less repulsive.

"She is 40-45% right now to win, so what is your reasoning behind why the betting money is wrong?"

----> It's because Joe Public always votes for the candidate he'd rather have a beer with, and <b>nobody</b> would want to go out drinking with creepy Hillary.


"And do you plan to capitalize on this inefficiency?"

----> I shorted some Hillary contracts at TradeSports a while back, and then got an email from them that my trade was covered at market against my will, due to their spinning off of intrade or something stupid like that. So, I don't plan on ever doing business with the incompetent jokers at TradeSports/intrade ever again. I'm still open to making personal wagers with people who I can be certain won't welch on the bet, if the opportunity presents itself.
 
How about we elect Ron Paul and end all these bullshit War mongering, country invading, personal liberty smashing, corrupt assholes who instill fear using the word "Terrorist" as an excuse for everything.

thanks.
-TSP
 
Ron Paul's candidacy is really odd. So many thinking people from both parties seem to be attracted by what he has to say and find him to be a breath of fresh air amongst all the BS and yet it seems no one is taking him seriously, almost like he is being relegated to nader status in 2000. Why isn't his message and candidacy getting more traction? Is it really all about money or if there something in his message that is putting people off?
 
Something I noticed when I watched the debate the other night-

He talks about how inflation takes money from the poor and middle class and those on Wall Street are unaffected. While this is correct, he is unable to articulate in simple terms the mechanism how this works in a way that the voters could understand. In the end, he comes off sounding loony.

And unfortunately, his shrill voice is unsettling to listen to. Combine this with the "loony" factor, and he's unelectable.

So yes, I think that people are put off by him.....
 
So his voice sounds bad, lets just elect a dumb ass then, its just the presidency at stake anyways. At least there voice will sound nice.
 
Quote from Mvic:

yet it seems no one is taking him seriously, almost like he is being relegated to nader status in 2000.
More...

it depends on who "no one" is.

obviously the popular media and bureaucrats will denigrate and mock him; his policies run counter to their interests. the same reason they are spinning hillary as a shoo-in, such a lock-in that it's not even worth your time to oppose her.
 
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