I thought this was an interesting comment:
"``Macro managers have a habit of falling in love with the big-picture thematic view,'' said Philippe Bonnefoy, head of Geneva-based Cedar Partners Investment Management Ltd., a hedge- fund firm that's opening a macro fund. ``The problem is that not every theme is linear.''
For example, Bonnefoy expects oil to eventually reach $100 a barrel. He's not, however, betting on a price-rise right now. ``Macro managers must also be traders,'' he said."
Hasn't this been the flaw of so many old-line macro managers? It's not so much about being right, as being right at the right time. Also let's face it, these guys are getting pretty old - it's inevitable that they have lost their touch, or changed the purpose or direction of their funds.