Quote from NoDoji:
If you're a counter-trend trader with a short bias against a rising market, you watch for conditions to become overbought, price to pull significantly far from the rising 20-bar moving average and then watch how price reacts to previous resistance. The market's been overbought for a while now but as long as each day ends green there's no strong counter-trend signal yet, unless you want to start building into a position early. This can be a solid strategy if you have a max size and stop loss planned in advance.
ES hit 1159 in pre-market Friday and sold off that level so fast you could hardly see it. I'm assuming that means there were a heck of a lot of sell orders at that level. A counter-trend trader could interpret that as an entry signal to the short side, especially considering the overbought condition, 11 higher closes in a row, and price pulled almost as far from the 20-bar moving average as it's ever been over the past year.
The way short-biased counter-trend traders make money is by taking advantage of the fact that all trends have pullbacks and price on average tends to fall twice as fast as it rises. In the 11/3/09 - 2/5/10 time frame, it took SPY 2 1/2 months to climb over 10 points, then took just 17 days to fall back to the 11/3 price level.
There are many ways to make money in the markets as long you manage your risk.
Shit, you're good
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