Fake Breakout Daily

[tradermike99]

Hi guys,

How do you trade fake breakouts on a daily timeframe?

Do you wait until the price hits the stop loss or do you close the position immediately when it doesnt work out?

Thanks,

Mike

 

[maxinger]

Fake Breakout

---> limited breakout or
---> Real / valid reversal


Perhaps you can show the chart.

 

[tradermike99]

@maxinger Real / valid reversal

 

[Centuriona]

I wait till it hit stop loss. In most cases, it doesn't.

 

[murray t turtle]

Hi guys,

How do you trade fake breakouts on a daily timeframe?

Do you wait until the price hits the stop loss or do you close the position immediately when it doesnt work out?

Thanks,

Mike

%%
Sounds like if you mean a gap up/ depends on higher time frame/trend.....................................Most of the tech ETFs are still trending real well;so let profits ride/even if we are overdue for a correction
Or if you mean an intraday price in an uptrending bull market,[which we are in] depends on my profit or loss on the ETF. I sold[exits] on 3 long tech ETFs,today but 2 of the 3 are still going up good.
I like to get paid every week of so...........................................................

 

[panzerman]

It all depends on if you can define what a breakout is to you, so that you can put it into algorithmic form and backtest it. What you want is to determine if your breakout trading method will stand a chance of being positive expectancy when it comes to live trading.

Don't know how to define your method? Don't know how to backtest? Don't want to learn how to backtest? Then you are stuck trying to get a big enough sample size N from live trading in order to perform the positive expectancy calculation. Of course your PnL curve will the first indication of success or failure.

I suspect that however you define your breakout, when it works, and when it doesn't work are likely randomly distributed in time, and will never lead you to positive expectancy. That's why you need to backtest first, and not risk your hard earned cash on live trading in the hope that it might work.

 

[tradermike99]

@Centuriona @murray t turtle @panzerman

Thank you so much guys! Really valuable answers.

Wish you all good trading.

 

[murray t turtle]

I wait till it hit stop loss. In most cases, it doesn't.

%%
True ;
in an up trending bull market/ which we are in.
When price gets below 200dma= everything changes+ tends to be much more wild/disorderly...........................................................................................