Fair Value Gaps

[Sprout]

I just looked the guy up and read through his ideas — absolute batshit. I worked on a rates & fx desk at major bulge bracket desks… that’s not what we do lol.

Seems like his IPDA thing is a very bad reading and analysis of this New York Fed paper on interbank trading and liquidity provisioning (https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr550.pdf).

Dealer markets (interbank) is not very delta speculative. That means the pnl of a desk is not based upon betting a currency is going to go up or down. The major sources of pnl for bank desks are things like fx and rates vol, niche carry, and treasury basis. On the bank desk you’re worried about things like adverse selection and need to capture a wide enough spread to compensate you for that while still winning business (getting to fill, by being more competitive in pricing).

What’s that saying…? “I feel sorry for the fools…”

It would be entertaining to call him out, be forewarned, He has an army of the faithful. He's mostly doing live streams on twitter/youtube rn and claims when Nov comes he'll ghost.

"Market Making Buy Model, Market Making Sell Model, MMxM" has a devoted following. He's developed quite a specialized vocabulary, keeps folks hooked by a continuous release of "concepts."

I studied his works for about a year, but listened to one-too-many unhinged rants and just got full. To his credit, he can read price action and makes a fair amount of correct calls; many to-the-tick.

 

[longandshort]

It would be entertaining to call him out, be forewarned, He has an army of the faithful. He's mostly doing live streams on twitter/youtube rn and claims when Nov comes he'll ghost.

"Market Making Buy Model, Market Making Sell Model, MMxM" has a devoted following. He's developed quite a specialized vocabulary, keeps folks hooked by a continuous release of "concepts."

I studied his works for about a year, but listened to one-too-many unhinged rants and just got full. To his credit, he can read price action and makes a fair amount of correct calls; many to-the-tick.

The odds are that a tick mean reverts, so tick by tick reading is really not that special. Would guess most people could correctly guess the next tick (and have ran surveys to test). A better evaluation of a trader is their pnl.

Maybe one day when I retire I’ll start a YouTube channel…

 

[Dollardogs]

I just looked the guy up and read through his ideas — absolute batshit. I worked on a rates & fx desk at major bulge bracket desks… that’s not what we do lol.

Seems like his IPDA thing is a very bad reading and analysis of this New York Fed paper on interbank trading and liquidity provisioning (https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr550.pdf).

Dealer markets (interbank) is not very delta speculative. That means the pnl of a desk is not based upon betting a currency is going to go up or down. The major sources of pnl for bank desks are things like fx and rates vol, niche carry, and treasury basis. On the bank desk you’re worried about things like adverse selection and need to capture a wide enough spread to compensate you for that while still winning business (getting to fill, by being more competitive in pricing).

What’s that saying…? “I feel sorry for the fools…”

Agreed, the ICT guy is a total kook. It seems like all he did was rename S/R etc and repackage them. I've never found much more to it than that. Tried several of his youtube videos and he takes 45 minutes to start to begin to maybe sorta make a point. Cult style hypnosis tactic?

 

[Dollardogs]

It would be entertaining to call him out, be forewarned, He has an army of the faithful. He's mostly doing live streams on twitter/youtube rn and claims when Nov comes he'll ghost.

"Market Making Buy Model, Market Making Sell Model, MMxM" has a devoted following. He's developed quite a specialized vocabulary, keeps folks hooked by a continuous release of "concepts."

I studied his works for about a year, but listened to one-too-many unhinged rants and just got full. To his credit, he can read price action and makes a fair amount of correct calls; many to-the-tick.

Funniest example is how they 'rebranded' reversals as "change of character" aka "CHOCH." I guess "COC" was already taken?

https://forexbee.co/choch-in-trading/

 

[Sprout]

The odds are that a tick mean reverts, so tick by tick reading is really not that special. Would guess most people could correctly guess the next tick (and have ran surveys to test). A better evaluation of a trader is their pnl.

Maybe one day when I retire I’ll start a YouTube channel…

No, not tick by tick reading. Calling a level 1-3 days before and then the market moving to that level To-The-Tick and then reversing.

Yes, pnl and no I have not seen his.

As for the YT comment;
Some of these channels are making bank. What's even more perplexing are the recent NPC streams from TikTok,.. that sh*t is wack and the best are pulling $2-4k a stream for nonsense. Pinkydoll.. gang gang, ice cream so good!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679620663676477440

 

[Sprout]

Funniest example is how they 'rebranded' reversals as "change of character" aka "CHOCH." I guess "COC" was already taken?

https://forexbee.co/choch-in-trading/

Yes. Babypips has a glossary of early ICT, folks can work out timestamps from there. I think his earliest posts there were circa 2010ish. Earlier stuff requires digging through a morass of Telegram Channels.

 

[Ironplates]

It would be entertaining to call him out, be forewarned, He has an army of the faithful. He's mostly doing live streams on twitter/youtube rn and claims when Nov comes he'll ghost.

"Market Making Buy Model, Market Making Sell Model, MMxM" has a devoted following. He's developed quite a specialized vocabulary, keeps folks hooked by a continuous release of "concepts."

I studied his works for about a year, but listened to one-too-many unhinged rants and just got full. To his credit, he can read price action and makes a fair amount of correct calls; many to-the-tick.

tried to call him out to make good on his $5 Million offer to prove his work is not unique. he's not returning my calls.

his material has helped me improve my own trading system and improve my own trading.

i am curious about all these claims about the big banks being so instrumental in moving price. i'd think they would have taken all the money out of the world if that was the case.