Fading Yen - It has gone parabolic

cdcaveman · Mar 22, 2013

Quote from hftvol:

sure, you are right, had OP started with such

a) trading in alignment with price action (which he did not, he grossly ignored all fundamentals, plus price action)

b) had properly scaled his position as a function of volatility, momentum, his views AND a proper stop loss as function of such volatility and momentum.

Having ignored all that and gotten himself deep into the red disqualified the trade already from ever having made a C grade or higher. If you mess up big time on a professional trading desk, basically displaying to everyone you violated pretty much every sane and intelligent approach to trading, and drag down the whole desk PnL with you, then when your boss tells you to get the hell out then you do get the hell out, no arguing, or else you can pick up your sorry ass on the street couple days later. Not that this 100% transfers to this example here, nobody is his boss here, but still I think benwm, myself and a few others meant well with him to urge him to square his position. He did not even listen then but started to get into lengthy discussions why its good to sleep over huge losses, why its good to tie up precious capital in losing positions, why its good to keep a losing position on the book despite it still being counter momentum. In such times such trader shows clearly he has kind of lost reasonable judgement skills and is either revenge trading or even worse, trading purely based on hope. In such case it is ALWAYS BETTER TO GET OUT RIGHT AWAY. My 2 cents.

this all makes sense.. reality is rather harsh .. you can't rationalize or minimize. the one thing i commend Gmst on is actually exposing ones self this way.. most guys don't have the balls to admit such misguided thinking on a public forum.. i've done it myself.. with plenty of criticism.. but i don't really care.. its all part of learning to deal with yourself objectively..

hftvol · Mar 22, 2013

fair point

Quote from cdcaveman:

this all makes sense.. reality is rather harsh .. you can't rationalize or minimize. the one thing i commend Gmst on is actually exposing ones self this way.. most guys don't have the balls to admit such misguided thinking on a public forum.. i've done it myself.. with plenty of criticism.. but i don't really care.. its all part of learning to deal with yourself objectively..

murrica · Apr 1, 2013

Quote from murrica:

6J:

Long above 1.0350 with a very tight stop. I'll cruise with gmst on this one..it's just a trade.

I would not be completely uncomfortable with taking profits around the 1.0750 level at which the futures contract is currently trading.

I am a bit cautious about opening trades in one direction or another at this level, just would be looking to take profits now due to channel resistance.

edit: My thought is that it does appear we have broken a clean channel, which suggests this trade could go more. Super long term retest level is still around 1.1100+ (would want to drill down and get a better estimate on this), but I am still cautious that this short term 'breakout' on the daily could be a fakeout. We shall see. Watching and waiting.

murrica · Apr 4, 2013

Quote from murrica:

I would not be completely uncomfortable with taking profits around the 1.0750 level at which the futures contract is currently trading.

I am a bit cautious about opening trades in one direction or another at this level, just would be looking to take profits now due to channel resistance.

edit: My thought is that it does appear we have broken a clean channel, which suggests this trade could go more. Super long term retest level is still around 1.1100+ (would want to drill down and get a better estimate on this), but I am still cautious that this short term 'breakout' on the daily could be a fakeout. We shall see. Watching and waiting.

Now, if I can learn to trade *with* the trend, I might be able to make that elusive 5x ATR thingy I've read about in other threads. (just kidding around, of course).

Green arrow is when I said to buy, red to sell. Ensuing drop is just..wow.

murrica · Apr 4, 2013

Quote from murrica:

Now, if I can learn to trade *with* the trend, I might be able to make that elusive 5x ATR thingy I've read about in other threads. (just kidding around, of course).

Green arrow is when I said to buy, red to sell. Ensuing drop is just..wow.

Damn thing is just a falling knife... now 1.0526. I was doing some work and saw it start to drop, noticed around 1.0670 or so.. whoa.

edit: 1.0514

edit: 1.0510 whoaa...

murrica · Apr 4, 2013

Quote from murrica:

Damn thing is just a falling knife... now 1.0526. I was doing some work and saw it start to drop, noticed around 1.0670 or so.. whoa.

edit: 1.0514

edit: 1.0510 whoaa...

I'm always afraid to be late to the party without realizing the guests have barely started to arrive. All this time I'm making a frelling chart to post on ET, thinking, "wow, if we could only get a pull back so I can get in safely". lol...

edit: 1.0490 btw. wtf.. I suck

edit: 1.0482 boo

edit: 1.0470 fuck this I'm getting in. (just kidding)

murrica · Apr 4, 2013

This is for my own future reference, so please don't pay attention to this post.

When witnessing a strong move like this *in what appears to be the early stages*, get in on the retraces. This puppy provided no less than SIX chances to get in with a very tight stop, offering a hugely favorable risk:reward.

oldtime · Apr 4, 2013

I never trade anything people are talking about

when they start talking about it, I am looking for a place to get out

That is why George Soros is a billioinare, and I never have to worry about how to pay the bills

Those of us that are hobbits like eating well, sleeping well, (and occasionally getting high.) We don't talk about sex, but we have kids.

our patron Saints are the three sisters, corn, beans and squash

keep it spread, those big storms make you look like a total fool in the years they don't show up

(and we don't make out that well when they do show up, but we usually have something to eat and a little to share with the gamblers)

murrica · Apr 4, 2013

Quote from oldtime:

I never trade anything people are talking about

when they start talking about it, I am looking for a place to get out

That is why George Soros is a billioinare, and I never have to worry about how to pay the bills

Those of us that are hobbits like eating well, sleeping well, (and occasionally getting high.) We don't talk about sex, but we have kids.

our patron Saints are the three sisters, corn, beans and squash

keep it spread, those big storms make you look like a total fool in the years they don't show up

(and we don't make out that well when they do show up, but we usually have something to eat and a little to share with the gamblers)

I love reading your posts but wasn't sure what the advice was.. you're saying don't trade the Yen because it's a popular news item? And be a humble hobbit? Something about being too greedy? Sorry, a bit lost

oldtime · Apr 4, 2013

Quote from murrica:

I love reading your posts but wasn't sure what the advice was.. you're saying don't trade the Yen because it's a popular news item? And be a humble hobbit? Something about being too greedy? Sorry, a bit lost

If I was a TA trader, I would try to design some kind of program that would edit out

I can do allright as long as everything is normal

I worked too hard for my money to gamble it when it is anybody's guess

different strokes for different folks

some thrive on hunting, and are willling to wait patiently until it comes time to attack

I just like the boring life of a trapper. I check and rebait my traps everyday.

If I see any unusual activity, I just lay low. I don't want or need any trouble. I'm just a little itty bitty guy, and almost everybody is bigger than me.

A guy could get short the yen in here, most think it is a clear shot to 96 or 97, some have a 100 target, or even 103

I just do better when I have a complete program that includes all the other majors. Guessing what one pair is going to do is for others that are better than me.