There are no haters on this thread. We've all given the guy good advice. Disagreeing with one's position does not make one a hater.
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Fading Yen - It has gone parabolic
- Thread starter gmst
- Start date
There are no haters on this thread. We've all given the guy good advice. Disagreeing with one's position does not make one a hater.
Only this post shows you speak like someone who has learned from experience (failure mostly I guess, the learning I mean). I can only applaud that. Very rarely do I see a post that shows someone speaks from real experience. So much clutter, so little insight. Thanks for sharing!!!
Quote from benwm:
When I was junior at a bank in 1998 there was a day when USDJPY moved 20+ handles in less than 24 hours - off the top of my head I think it was during the LTCM crisis but it was hard to believe at the time. :eek: Maybe someone can pull up a long term chart as I don't have one to hand?
From this historical perspective the yen weakness to date has been fairly orderly, albeit a powerful one way move. It is quite possible that the "inflection point" of the parabola has yet to be reached. I doubt gmst is alone with his fade, most likely some macro hedge funds are hurting because such a move appears to be an outlier if you're only looking at the magnitude of price moves over the last 2-4 years.
For gmst it may well be a defining moment in their personal trading development. There are less stressful and more profitable ways to trade. I think most of us have put on these fading macro trades from time to time and the pain leaves such an indelible mark that we never want to return once the scars have headed.
If you don't mind sharing gmst, what % of capital have you lost so far? Are you sleeping well? It might be useful to the other posters (and yourself) to share more details about your feelings at this stage. Often writing things down can help to clarify your thinking and reach some sort of plan. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. Living to fight another day is all that matters when you get deep in the mire.
Sometimes what appears at the time to be a disaster ends up being a strong motivator for later successes, and you have to think this way if you want to succeed in the long run, even when the going gets tough.
what the heck are you talking about? You are deep under and you still cannot realize and accept you fuxxed up all those trades? Dude, do you realize that your negative learning affects you much more than the little cudo that you may with probability of 5% (95% you will sooner or later bail out at even worse prices) get by covering your losses later in case the market turns around a bit? You are doing yourself a great disservice and above all you harm yourself the most not others, even if those are just paper trades, reinforcing your garbage trading approach makes you a worse trader with every single post. Enough said.
Quote from gmst:
Covered this additional 2.5% risk at 95.5 for a 2.5% PL.
So, total booked PL = 4.93+2.5 = 7.43%.
I am still waiting for a better price to close the trade.
Quote from Maverick74:
There are no haters on this thread. We've all given the guy good advice. Disagreeing with one's position does not make one a hater.
I was not referring to anyone on this thread, especially not you. I've always seen your posts to be helpful.
Just trying to help the guy get on with the next trade..
the next best trade is to realize one's losses especially when one is several handles under. My goodness.
Quote from HopelessTrader:
I was not referring to anyone on this thread, especially not you. I've always seen your posts to be helpful.
Just trying to help the guy get on with the next trade..
Quote from hftvol:
the next best trade is to realize one's losses especially when one is several handles under. My goodness.
It is not really important how many handles trade goes against a trader. FWIW, a trader can have a stop loss at 6 big figures (as I had in this case). What is really important is how much % of the capital one has lost and how correlated a specific position is against other trades in one's portfolio. This is the way I manage my book risk.
do what I do, get 100% flat, and then put the exact same position on, only this time, a little smaller, and manage it a little better, and don't make the same mistakes that got you in this mess.
Hopefully, you had something going on somewhere else that was moving in your favor, to even everything out.
For instance, if you were short usd against jpy, you should have been long usd against something else
or if you want to do it the other way, if you are short jpy against usd (which almost everybody is) keep a little short eur/jpy on the side.
they will never write an article about you. cnbc will never knock on your door for an interview. Nobody is impressed by hedging.
Like they told me when I started out, "If you can beat that long bond, you'll do just fine."
Hopefully, you had something going on somewhere else that was moving in your favor, to even everything out.
For instance, if you were short usd against jpy, you should have been long usd against something else
or if you want to do it the other way, if you are short jpy against usd (which almost everybody is) keep a little short eur/jpy on the side.
they will never write an article about you. cnbc will never knock on your door for an interview. Nobody is impressed by hedging.
Like they told me when I started out, "If you can beat that long bond, you'll do just fine."
Quote from gmst:
It is not really important how many handles trade goes against a trader. FWIW, a trader can have a stop loss at 6 big figures (as I had in this case). What is really important is how much % of the capital one has lost and how correlated a specific position is against other trades in one's portfolio. This is the way I manage my book risk.
Couple years back, I once allowed a position to run 12 big figures against me - since the trade was designed like that from the beginning. Core position was an calendar spread and delta was opportunistically hedged using spot. Guess how much I lost with the trade 12 big figures against me. Answer is - 70% of allowed initial stop.
I agree with most of the sentiments expressed but .....
All I am trying to say is that the way risk is managed is way more important than just looking at how many handles a trade has moved against.
thats a pretty stupid way to manage risk. Yes, one aspect of trading is to manage how much percent of your capital is risked. But an entirely different yet equally important part of trading that you actually are net profitable by expectancy. Risking 6 handles on a trade is plain stupid unless you aim for a 20 or so handle profit target, which would make this a long-term position during most all market environments, meaning a position with a multi months if not year holding period. Current volatility in yen crosses simply does not justify potential losses in the region of 6 handles.
Quote from gmst:
It is not really important how many handles trade goes against a trader. FWIW, a trader can have a stop loss at 6 big figures (as I had in this case). What is really important is how much % of the capital one has lost and how correlated a specific position is against other trades in one's portfolio. This is the way I manage my book risk.