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Fading Yen - It has gone parabolic
- Thread starter gmst
- Start date
Quote from cdcaveman:
yeah don't worry..... haha i'm good... the day i let hurricane usa get to me is the day i need to quite life.. .. . risk is fading the usd.jpy.. .. it has not made a relative lower low in a freaking LONG time
You're quoting oldtime?....haha...you guys are two worthless peas in a pod...the blind leading the blind
I can't even see his posts because I have him on ignore...that's how much I think of his incoherent ramblings...I had to put him on ignore
My ignore list:
1. Oldtime....in the top spot
2. Jack Hershey
In fact, Hershey's posts make more sense than oldtime if you get my drift
the general concensus is it's going to 100Quote from cdcaveman:
yeah don't worry..... haha i'm good... the day i let hurricane usa get to me is the day i need to quite life.. .. . risk is fading the usd.jpy.. .. it has not made a relative lower low in a freaking LONG time
I don't like trading things people are talking about
that's why I have no position in jpy
it usually gets me out early
they don't write books about me
but I am still alive
Quote from oldtime:
the general concensus is it's going to 100
I don't like trading things people are talking about
that's why I have no position in jpy
it usually gets me out early
they don't write books about me
but I am still alive [/QUOTE
Ya. Seems the two trades I've put on it made money.. one was short...
Quote from HurricaneUS:
He's essentially betting against Shinzo Abe...I bet he doesn't even understand the fundamentals behind this yen move.....Japanese finance minister doesn't consider the yen even close to being oversold until around the 110 USD level, and with the BOJ governor stepping down early, Abe can now replace him with one of his goons to juice liquidity and tank the yen even further for the real move.....wait..what? this is not the real move?...not even close
Hey, I do understand. Here I am not doing a techno-funda analysis, rather just playing a techno play.
Wanted to PM you but you don't allow that. Then tried emailing and it says you don't want people to send emails to you through this board. So, if there is a note I want to send you in private, how do I do that?
Quote from gmst:
Hey, I do understand. Here I am not doing a techno-funda analysis, rather just playing a techno play.
Wanted to PM you but you don't allow that. Then tried emailing and it says you don't want people to send emails to you through this board. So, if there is a note I want to send you in private, how do I do that?
I actually prefer not to be contacted because there are some loonies on ET....like oldtime....one guy even sent me hate emails
although I'm not in any way saying you're loony...I actually enjoy your posts
Quote from HurricaneUS:
I actually prefer not to be contacted because there are some loonies on ET....like oldtime....one guy even sent me hate emails
although I'm not in any way saying you're loony...I actually enjoy your posts
I respect your decision to limit your privacy. I just wanted to drop a note in private. Its nothing too important frankly. Please don't worry about it.
Thanks for enjoying my posts. Personally, I respect your market understanding!
I don't pm, and anybody that sends me a pm knows that is the first thing I tell themQuote from HurricaneUS:
I actually prefer not to be contacted because there are some loonies on ET....like oldtime....one guy even sent me hate emails
although I'm not in any way saying you're loony...I actually enjoy your posts
If you have something to say to me, say it publically
I don't like getting close
because I may change my strategy at a moments notice
and don't like being responsible for what I just said
for you to imply that I might pm you just puts you farther in the hole
why don't you admit you are a beginner and don't know what the hell you are talking about?
I have done it many times
Quote from HopelessTrader:
With regard to ES, what changed in your trading during that time?
We are getting off-topic for this thread, however to answer above and your PM question of difference between ES and FX:
Actually I grappled with this question of why I am making money in FX and losing money in ES for months - This question baffled me for almost 8-9 months. Only after that I began to develop an understanding of why it was the case.
There are actually many reasons for this:
1) When I started trading ES, I found it very hard to determine where exactly I should put my stop. I used to put stop at 2 pts and I will get stopped. Then I will put it 4 points I will again get stopped. And then price will suddenly move in my direction for 10 pts. In FX, I found my stops were flexible since I was trading small. Say I buy 30k, then scale in with 40k at -20 pips and cover partial position say 50k at +15pip. So, I will be left with a position of 20k only. So, much less risk.
However, ES being a full contract, I found it hard to scale in and scale out like FX.
2) Range/Tick size in FX > ES. E.g. EURUSD daily range = 100 pips, tick size = 1pip. So, ratio = 100. ES daily range = 15 pts. Tick size = 0.25 pts. Ratio = 15/0.25 = 60. Although I am comparing 24hr session for FX with RTH for ES, you get my point.
3) Above really becomes important when you realize that it is much easier to scalp FX than scalping ES. E.g. it is fairly easy to find many 10-15 pip oscillations in FX in a day, so you can scalein scaleout and your costs of doing business is 1 pip, so ratio is 15. However to make 2 pts in ES, cost of doing business is 0.25 pts, so ratio is 8.
4) I might be long EURO but see an opportunity to be short AUD and then after some time might take a small position in USDJPY. Can't do all this diversification with ES. So, FX trading in general was more smooth compared to ES.
5) FX is a single market (e.g. Yen is a single currency) whereas ES is a contract representing 500 underlying stocks. ES get impacted by index arbitrage, stock-sector specific news, some fund manager buying/selling etc. Whereas FX is impacted mostly by macroeconomic news. This results in different kind of intraday moves in these asset classes.
Finally, how I became profitable in ES - I think I lost around 15k-20k usd in ES in the process of becoming profitable in that contract. This happened over a period of 9-12 months. It was just intense studying, research and backtesting that turned things around. I coded many simple concepts and backtested them to see their efficacy. After a while, I started to combine separate concepts - and that started resulting in equity curve with much less volatility. Also, I think market experience of 4 yrs has been very helpful. I think had I tried to trade ES at the start of my career (without first trading FX), I might have found it much harder to become profitable in ES. I had left my job to pursue trading - so I was able to devote around 12 hrs per day on this thing. I think that really helped.
I wrote a thread earlier on what not to do while trading ES. At that time, I was still not profitable.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=241226&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
Hope this helps.
Quote from gmst:
Yen had a strong move today. As outlined in first post, scaled-in at 93 again and 93.5 for 0.25% risk each.
So, total risk currently = 2.25%(scaled at 25 pips)+ 0.75% (scales at 50 pips) risk = 3% risk
Bidding at 92.7, 92.2, 91.7
Got filled today at 94 for 0.25% risk more. Total risk currently = 3.25% risk
I have decided to slightly change profit targets now.
Bidding 0.25% at 92.8 and another 0.25% at 92.5 instead of 93.2 and 92.7. So bidding for 120 pip move and 100 pip move on these last 2 scale-ins rather than 80 pips move.