Fading today's rally.... Trade it or Fade it?

[murray t turtle]

Escaped this morning, barely green...

%%
QID = still a bit red \LOL.
But Dave Ramsey noted he buys[stock funds] in OCT + he still like$ beans better than bonds\LOL
I trap cockroaches. I did buy a bond fund once + sure enough the selling point of bonds\ you only lose a bit , not counting inflation, not counting opportunity cost$\LOL,

 

[Nine_Ender]

From October 13th :

Reality is it wasn't really bad news no matter how hard the media tried to present it like it was. Inflation in NA has hardly moved in two months ( actually dropped a touch in Canada ). Look beyond the official numbers there are numerous asset classes and prices already down significantly. And these are lagging indicators.

So the thesis that the inflation number was horrible was a nonstarter other then a buy/sell the news event that likely reversed in the near future. And in this case it more then reversed, probably because earnings on JPM etc will likely beat lowered expectations. Short term all this fear mongering can hurt markets but eventually it gets stale.

I called the turn on inflation well before most realized it was occurring. Now it's very clear. Note the JPM reference.

 

[Nine_Ender]

I'm unclear short term but expecting a rally of some type in Nov/Dec off of whatever the bottom is soon. I believe quality stocks, TSX energy, and potentially some destroyed small caps / miners to do fine a year plus out in any event. It's a mixed market some stocks could still get hammered in a recession but some are beat up so bad they can't really go much lower unless they are insolvent.

Special trades show up all the time when sentiment flips on a sector. Copper/silver miners and banks often are great swing trades in market rallies. The stuff I follow here in Canada is suggesting small caps may have bottomed out ( kind of a rock bottom almost no volume except on news ). It does mean however that they can really fly if they find new buyers, insiders, or get taken over.

This is holding up fairly well since October 14th. Don't forget though Ken's in inverses, UVXY to the moon !!!

 

[Overnight]

This is holding up fairly well since October 14th. Don't forget though Ken's in inverses, UVXY to the moon !!!

Don't be fooled by these headline prints. The only thing that matters is the shit that pours out of Powell's mouth. We have seen this now for 4+ years.

If he does not spit a dove out of his mouth in the December meeting, this rally is OVER!

 

[Nine_Ender]

Don't be fooled by these headline prints. The only thing that matters is the shit that pours out of Powell's mouth. We have seen this now for 4+ years.

If he does not spit a dove out of his mouth in the December meeting, this rally is OVER!

One month performances :

TSX +9.8%, COPP etf +16.3%, SILV on NY +13%, JPM +32.5%, CS +47%
( UVXY etf -31%, SQQQ etf -25.6%, KOLD etf -5.8% )

 

[vanzandt]

If he does not spit a dove out of his mouth in the December meeting, this rally is OVER!