Fading Goldman's "public" trade recommendations -

[Overnight]

looks like the guys over at Forexlive also did a weekend project in compiling and checking goldman's publicly recommended trades.

Goldman Sachs' top trades for 2018 have been an unmitigated disaster
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/go...18-have-been-an-unmitigated-disaster-20180922

lol, perhaps for their internal teams it was an 'unmitigated $$$ opportunity'

let's join the inner circle, i say

Remember what they are saying...The bear market is here, now. We're all doomed.

 

[pinetboltz]

Remember what they are saying...The bear market is here, now. We're all doomed.

lol, one day if/when they decide to say "we love this market bc of the solid fundamentals and momentum" then it'd probably be time to pull a Paul Tudor Jones and short the S&P at top tick

 

[pinetboltz]

alright, oil looks to be a breakout buy, def. going to $100 by the looks of it

even the charts look incredibly bullish, & w/ stops placed at $80 for brent their 'recommendation' is just addtl info to the upside

Goldman Sachs Pours Cold Water on Talk of $100 a Barrel Oil
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-pours-cold-water-on-talk-of-100-a-barrel-oil

 

[Visaria]

Haha, i like this thread!

 

[Spooz Top 2]

So around the time of Labor Day, i was looking at a reversal trade in the Aussie dollar, & lo and behold, on my newsfeed there was a notification on how Goldman did "not like the AUD", right around its lows, https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/go...g-trade-war-to-weigh-on-the-currency-20180907

Well, we all know how that story turned out - within a day or two, ie. just enough time for a note to be emailed/disseminated to supposed "muppets", AUD then staged a nice rally off the 0.71 level.

The timing just seems really fantastic, not to mention it happened way too many times in the past (eg. most memorably with crude oil, i think they were calling for shorts in the $20s area, literally within days of CL's trough)

If we're to be paranoid, would it be that the "public" trade recommendations are designed to get "muppets" in, so that the real, "private" instructions should be to trade opposite to whatever the "public" note says? Kind of like a secret code for the inner circle, I wouldn't be surprised with all the scandals that broke with LIBOR rigging, currency rigging, precious metals manipulation, the 'cartel' etc etc

If someone has a compilation of all the "public" macro trade recommendations sent out by Goldman, we could check the timestamps & where the market actually traded afterwards. It'd be funny if there's real alpha to be found there - eg. if on 80%+ of their "public" calls, the trade would work with a solid risk:reward profile if the exact opposite was done.

My guess is that whenever they put out a "public" recommendation, the trade may work for 1-2 days, with just enough momentum to pull the "muppets" in, & then there would be a STRONG reversal in the opposite direction, possibly signaling the start of an extended move.

Perhaps next up would be to compare Gartman vs. Goldman's 'reverse indicator' % accuracy. Something tells me that it takes just as much skillz to be so consistently "wrong-footed," as it does to be always profitable, esp. if said trade recommendations would generate a better entry point when "muppets" willingly enter the opposite side of the trade, eg. in this case, those who sold AUD in large quantities at the 0.71 level after reading the bearish note on Sept 7.

There is some method in the madness, i say.

I f you find a viable edge... keep it to yourself and press it with everything you have... seriously!

Goldman client/ muppet Put call in `09 marked one of the greatest fades of all time.. Catalyst for the Moonshot we see today... wish I was 100x bigger on that one...