Fading Calendar Spreads
- Thread starter Here2learn
- Start date
This isn't necessarily a calendar spread question, but...since we're talking about seasonals and energy spreads, has the 3-2-1 NYMEX crack gone out the window as far as being a fair representation of what refiners actually experience?
Right now, the December 3-2-1 NYMEX is about $30/barrel, but, using Brent Crude as the basis, it's much, much lower. Don't many northeast U.S. refiners import "brent" (i.e. "world") crude as the feedstock, because they can't really pipe it from Cushing?
The 3-2-1 NYMEX has had some pretty solid seasonal behavior, and has historically shown good long-term mean-reversion characteristics at extreme points (above $35/barrel and below $5/barrel), but, with Brent trading so much higher than WTI, I'm afraid that these characteristics may be breaking down.
Right now, the December 3-2-1 NYMEX is about $30/barrel, but, using Brent Crude as the basis, it's much, much lower. Don't many northeast U.S. refiners import "brent" (i.e. "world") crude as the feedstock, because they can't really pipe it from Cushing?
The 3-2-1 NYMEX has had some pretty solid seasonal behavior, and has historically shown good long-term mean-reversion characteristics at extreme points (above $35/barrel and below $5/barrel), but, with Brent trading so much higher than WTI, I'm afraid that these characteristics may be breaking down.
I think your underlying premise about the prominence of East Coast Refinery capacity, and the use of Brent Crude as a meaningful feedstock impacting the US crack spread margin, is not really an accurate picture these days. The US is more domestically sourced than it has been in many decades.
The pipeline project killed by the Obama administration would have moved more of that Canadian feedstock to the critical Gulf Coast region for refining.
While the high quality Brent feedstocks are easier to refine, the US Gulf Coast refineries have the ability to crack the much cheaper ( and more "sour" or higher in sulphur content ) Pemex and South American feedstocks. They get it at a big discount, and those margins can be really good at times.
OMG how long had this ridiculous BS on spread trading been on this site? clients complain about intellectual property? abahahhahaahh ahahahah ahahah calendar spreads.. bahahah
Obviously it has been on this site since at least the date of this old thread you have resurrected, which is 7 1/4 years old.
Trusted, you win the ET-oldest-thread-resurrection-of-the-year award. Gratz man. Enjoy a cookie or 7.
overnight the overlord of the elite trader board. LMFAO you keep me in stitches bro! merry christmas sorry ur not on the list this year but if you were i would send you trading for dummies.. just kidding. have a good one. i was seriously joking.