Fading an unsuccessful strategy?

Quote from clambill:

I was convinced for 18 months that I wanted to develop a trend following strategy so I could get the favorable risk/reward ratio that goes with that. However, if you can capture one large gain here and there only to lose it after getting whipsawed countless times afterwards by intermittent trading ranges, then I think now I'd rather go for the consistent small profits interrupted briefly by somewhat larger losses.
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I am coming to that same conclusion.

If this contrarian strategy wouldn't work, it would be if the markets would start doing something it would likely never do, and that is to go in a straight line up and down for long periods of time which would make trading with moving averages way too easy. Then every trend follower in the world would jump in that market which would likely just cause trading ranges to emerge.
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Get out of here with your logic.:p
 
Quote from jack hershey:

Refer to "Dr Hu" document tables entitled:Table of Decisions and Actions and Application of Capital Table so you have a context for your humor.


Yada Yada Snore...
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Poor Jack. So much time. so little to say...
 
Quote from jack hershey:

Refer to "Dr Hu" document tables entitled:Table of Decisions and Actions and Application of Capital Table so you have a context for your humor.

People do well in proportion to their objective knowledge of their partnership with the markets and their responsibilities.

Discovering incompleteness in knowledg and varients from the information the market supplies is an important ongoing activity.

When people can afford to help the environment with problem solving money and contributions of time, they got to that place by purposeful learning for my notes they took and the work they did to better their trading. Objective knowledge and skills sets are not threatening to anyone.
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dumbass.jpg
 
Quote from shitzfagiggles:

Jack Hershey's SCT
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SCT can mean:

SCT Secrétariat du Conseil du Trésor (Treasury Board Secretariat - Canada)
SCT Scattered (some clouds)
SCT Secrétariat du Conseil du Trésor du Canada (Treasury Board of Canada Secretariat)
SCT Supreme Court
SCT Stem Cell Transplantation
SCT Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes (México)
SCT SEPA (Single European Payment Area) Credit Transfer
SCT Schmidt-Cassegrain Telescope
SCT Seattle Children's Theatre
Sct Superior Court
SCT Semiconductor Tracker
SCT Supreme Commission for Tourism (Saudi Arabia)
SCT Social Cognitive Theory
SCT Secretin
SCT Systems & Computer Technology
SCT Scitex Continuous Tone
SCT Scrolling Combat Text (World of Warcraft gaming)
SCT Sentence Completion Test
SCT Society for Clinical Trials
SCT Supreme Court Reporter
SCT Special Consumption Tax (Turkey)
SCT Standard Course Time
SCT Sacrococcygeal Teratoma
SCT Secretaria de Ciência E Tecnologia (Portuguese: Department of Science and Technology; Brazil)
SCT Smart Card Technology
SCT Southern California TRACON
SCT Static Contraction Training (fitness)
SCT Supervisory Control Theory
SCT Social Contract Theory
SCT Sonoma County Transit (Santa Rosa, CA)
SCT Scenetorrents.org (private torrent tracker)
SCT Spectrum Control Technology
SCT Software Compatibility Test
SCT Soft Contact Lens
SCT Société Canadienne de Thoracologie (Canada)
SCT Special Committee on Trade
SCT Single Channel Transponder
SCT Single-Chain Trimer
SCT Sertoli Cell Tumor
SCT Shipping Corporation of India
SCT Santa Clarita Transit (Santa Clarita, CA)
SCT Saturated Condensing Temperature
SCT Subroutine Call Table
SCT Sioux City Terminal Railway
SCT Spondylocarpotarsal Syndrome
SCT Super Capacity Tactical (firearm; Sig Sauer)
SCT Strathclyde Compression Transform
SCT St. Claire Thugs (band)
SCT Space Camp Turkey (Izmir, Turkey)
SCT Structural Collapse Technician (emergency rescue)
SCT Satellite Communications Terminal
SCT Sonoma County Taiko (Santa Rosa, CA)
SCT Senior Computer Team
SCT Spacecraft Control Team
SCT Swiss Classic Tours (Switzerland)
SCT Ship Custody Transfer
SCT Social Care Training (Warrington, UK)
SCT Superframe Composition Table
SCT Strategic Component Team
SCT Software Certification Test
SCT Secure Cellular Terminal
SCT Segment Creation Time
SCT Subset Cut Technique
SCT Self Contained Tensioner
SCT Specifications and Contracts Team
SCT System Certification Test
SCT Strategic Communications Terminal
SCT Systems Control Technology, Incorporated
SCT Space Control Technician
SCT Service Center Transition
SCT Synchronized Clock and Tone
SCT STATS ChipPAC Taiwan Semiconductor Corporation
 
I think I finally found the solution. I know there's the method and there's also money management. But, I've seen a number of situations where I had a temporary profit only to see the price go back down then hit my stop. I just realized that if I used (a certain method I won't reveal now) a method to determine that the price is turning around (after taking a position), I could simply exit the trade even if it's just for a very small profit or break-even or a slight loss. If I end up being break-even after a series of small losses and small profits, then the times I do make a large profit I would finally come ahead. And even if I only had one large profit per week, then I'd be still making money.

This method however requires that I watch prices all the time. And of course my discovery only came at a time when I finally have to look for a job since I can no longer make my credit card payments. :eek:

At least I have an idea what might make me a profitable trader.
 
Quote from clambill:

Has anyone here thought about doing the exact opposite of a trading strategy that just seems to totally BOMB!? I mean, in the last 30 trades, I've had like 27 losses. It's stupendous. Now, I just realized I could possibly just DO THE OPPOSITE and own the world in 4 months. What do you think?
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By that reasoning, you should also be able to watch a lousy carpenter at work and just do the exact opposite to become an instant craftsman.
 
Quote from clambill:

At least I have an idea what might make me a profitable trader.
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If it has anything to do with the original post, then the only one who will become profitable, is your broker.
 
Here's something you could look at:

http://www.fxcm.co.uk/forex-system-selector.jsp

I actually use this and fade some of the crappier systems as they have an option to do the opposite.

I figured most of these are probably like MACD crossovers and such.

Generally I have been successful with this strategy but that is also because I sometimes take profits when I have them or use my own analysis to manage the trades.

Good Luck!
 
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