Fading a Guru

[gotta_trade]

So far I learned that I have to look for "set-up" markets on weekly charts. The set-up markets alert me that we are approaching a top or a bottom.

When I identify a "set-up" market, I then look for entries on the daily chart (using one of his entry techniques).

Determine protective stop.

Look for places to exit (using one of his exit techniques).


To sum it up:
Find a set-up market (on weekly chart).
Look for trigger to enter (on daily chart).
Predetermine protective stop.
Look for places to exit.

 

[Notes123]

look, i know i am not very patient, but after 6 pages, you still haven't got to your point: Fading a Guru.

Just tell us which guru you are fading. Get to the point, don't waste our time, ok?

Is it Nodoji or Investvision?

I would go with Nodoji, she is the most guruian on ET.

 

[gotta_trade]

Quote from Notes123:

look, i know i am not very patient, but after 6 pages, you still haven't got to your point: Fading a Guru.

Just tell us which guru you are fading. Get to the point, don't waste our time, ok?

Is it Nodoji or Investvision?

If you go to "your account", "edit options", "thread view options", "default posts per thread"... select "20 posts per page", then click the "submit modifications" button.

If you did that, you would only have had to read two pages.

 

[gotta_trade]

Quote from Notes123:

look, i know i am not very patient, but after 6 pages, you still haven't got to your point: Fading a Guru.

Just tell us which guru you are fading. Get to the point, don't waste our time, ok?

Is it Nodoji or Investvision?

I would go with Nodoji, she is the most guruian on ET.

Hi Notes123, please reread my prior posts. But here are the answers to your questions.

Quote from gotta_trade:

I have plenty of Larry Williams books and video training courses. I even attended one of his seminars about 10 years ago. I probably spent more money on him than any other guru.

So, I'm gonna dig up my old notes and pick one of his trading strategies that appeal to me at that time. I'll also watch one or two of his seminars over the weekend.

I'll post my trading plan as it develops. Then I'll trade it.

This may or may not work?? But I'm sure I'll learn something from it.

Quote from gotta_trade:

I dug up all of my Larry Williams videos, books, and notes. He certainly has a lot to offer. I'll spend the next week or so studying his stuff, I'll pick one or two strategies, develop a trading plan, and then I'll take some trades. I'm hoping to be ready within the next week or so.

 

[gotta_trade]

This is a journal about me developing a trading plan and then trading it.

 

[Swan Noir]

He has it right. You can't just fade a loser to come out a winner and his reasons cover enough the major drawbacks to your plan that from his post alone you should realize your experiment is doomed.

Quote from lynx:

Because everyone else is being coy about it, I will tell you why it won't work.

I know because I've test thousands of strategy variations, automatically, using custom software. I also tested their inverse in each case.

The first reason is that the strategy simply may not have any predictive power at all, positive or negative, so given slippage, commissions and imperfect trading technique, it will work equally badly in both directions.

The second reason is that the profitability of a strategy is strongly influenced by the parameters of trade management (stops, etc.), and you need to adjust those independently.

You might very well find something that seems to work -- but odds are that the drawdowns are unacceptably high, or it happens to be a good curve fit for your limited dataset.

OK, I don't think I explained that very well, but now that I've spilled the beans maybe somebody else can elaborate.

You're not the first person to think of fading a losing strategy. But go ahead and give it a shot (on paper, please) and you will be slightly closer to trading enlightenment.

 

[Notes123]

you never said you would FADE Larry Williams.

you said you would pick up a strategy from him.


The verb "FADE" never came together with the object "Larry Williams."

by the way, who is Larry Williams? brother of Serena Williams and Venus Williams?

I still think you should fade Nodoji, she is the mother of all gurus.

 

[gotta_trade]

Quote from Swan Noir:

He has it right. You can't just fade a loser to come out a winner and his reasons cover enough the major drawbacks to your plan that from his post alone you should realize your experiment is doomed.

You may be right. But I still would like to develop a trading plan and take trades that fade losing traders. I bet that alot of people that attend Larry's seminars and trade his strategies are losing traders.

 

[Swan Noir]

It is an interesting intellectual exercise. As long as you realize the limitations you should both have fun and learn some things. Have no doubt there are plenty of dead loser gurus. Like pretty much all of them!

Quote from gotta_trade:

You may be right. But I still would like to develop a trading plan and take trades that fade losing traders. I bet that alot of people that attend Larry's seminars and trade his strategies are losing traders.

 

[gotta_trade]

Quote from Swan Noir:

It is an interesting intellectual exercise. As long as you realize the limitations you should both have fun and learn some things.

Thanks