Facebook worth 60 billion someday?

[S2007S]

With 600 million accounts how much more growth and accounts do you people think facebook has left??? There is always a peak, AOL had their peak, every single company has its peak.... but I am sure "this time its different" crowd will say otherwise...

Everyone that is on facebook is on, its not going to grow a 100% a year, those days are long gone for facebook, they have a captured audience at this moment now and to hold them is the other tough choice they are going to have to make, because I am sure there is another website on the horizon thats going to attract tens of millions of users that will leave facebook just like they left friendster and myspace.

 

[jedwards]

Quote from S2007S:

With 600 million accounts how much more growth and accounts do you people think facebook has left??? There is always a peak, AOL had their peak, every single company has its peak.... but I am sure "this time its different" crowd will say otherwise...

Everyone that is on facebook is on, its not going to grow a 100% a year, those days are long gone for facebook, they have a captured audience at this moment now and to hold them is the other tough choice they are going to have to make, because I am sure there is another website on the horizon thats going to attract tens of millions of users that will leave facebook just like they left friendster and myspace.

Wrong. There are billions of people in this world. I don't even believe the 500 million account figure. I have about 5 different accounts myself. I'm more apt to believe it's closer to 100 million. But there are billions in India and China that still don't have access yet.

But that being said, if you think of it as just a myspace competitor, you are sorely mistaken.

Think of it like an OS. People log into Facebook when they wake up. They check the local news off their newsfeed. They check on their friends. The go to another Facebook "channel" and they can check all their e-mail. They change "channels" and they can look at traffic on their way to work. As someone else mentioned, they can check the latest top 40 on the music "channel" and buy the latest mp3. They need to write a report and the go to Facebook Docs (a rip off of Google Docs) and write their report there.

Everything can be done without ever leaving Facebook. That is their goal. All the while, they are feeding people ads. It might be a bit annoying, but people will get used to it.

Imagine all the kids who are 10 years old right now and never know IM or Email. They just know Facebook chat and Facebook message and wall posts.

These are the ones that are going to be the lifeblood of Facebook. Not old farts like you or me. No one cares if I ever log into the internet again, because demographically I spend the least and have the least amount of influence on popular culture.

Of course, this is the vision. Whether they accomplish it or they fail miserably because they violate too many privacy concerns and people move away en masse is a separate issue. This is why people are valuing it at $60 billion right now, and hundreds of billions in the years to come.

 

[MarketMasher]

Quote from jedwards:

Wrong. There are billions of people in this world. I don't even believe the 500 million account figure. I have about 5 different accounts myself. I'm more apt to believe it's closer to 100 million. But there are billions in India and China that still don't have access yet.

But that being said, if you think of it as just a myspace competitor, you are sorely mistaken.

Think of it like an OS. People log into Facebook when they wake up. They check the local news off their newsfeed. They check on their friends. The go to another Facebook "channel" and they can check all their e-mail. They change "channels" and they can look at traffic on their way to work. As someone else mentioned, they can check the latest top 40 on the music "channel" and buy the latest mp3. They need to write a report and the go to Facebook Docs (a rip off of Google Docs) and write their report there.

Everything can be done without ever leaving Facebook. That is their goal. All the while, they are feeding people ads. It might be a bit annoying, but people will get used to it.

Imagine all the kids who are 10 years old right now and never know IM or Email. They just know Facebook chat and Facebook message and wall posts.

These are the ones that are going to be the lifeblood of Facebook. Not old farts like you or me. No one cares if I ever log into the internet again, because demographically I spend the least and have the least amount of influence on popular culture.

Of course, this is the vision. Whether they accomplish it or they fail miserably because they violate too many privacy concerns and people move away en masse is a separate issue. This is why people are valuing it at $60 billion right now, and hundreds of billions in the years to come.

ok - but frankly that's what bookmarks and desktop widgets are for.

I'm not saying FB wouldn't be a big investment success. If there is big money behind it and a way to draw investors in, it can be made to appear to be the next best thing since sliced bread.

right now I see a lot of marketing. seems everything is future-tense - maybe this, maybe that... marketing.

Sure I've logged onto FB. But my reaction was, meh....

and as for "But there are billions in India and China that still don't have access yet. " India - maybe. China? No way. Not unless he hands the security keys over so they can crack down on dissidents.

 

[JJacksET4]

Quote from jedwards:

....Think of it like an OS. People log into Facebook when they wake up. They check the local news off their newsfeed. They check on their friends. The go to another Facebook "channel" and they can check all their e-mail. They change "channels" and they can look at traffic on their way to work. As someone else mentioned, they can check the latest top 40 on the music "channel" and buy the latest mp3. They need to write a report and the go to Facebook Docs (a rip off of Google Docs) and write their report there.

Everything can be done without ever leaving Facebook. That is their goal. All the while, they are feeding people ads. It might be a bit annoying, but people will get used to it.
....

Yeah, but this is the EXACT same thing that AOL had about 10 years ago - I used to have their standard full paid subscription and you would log in, check your email - check the "AOL news" check the "AOL stocks", "AOL Sport", whatever - they had pages for AOL Music, AOL Videos, downloads, software, they had exclusive pages that even with an internet connection you couldn't get to otherwise, etc. Eventually a person tires of having to login to AOL for that stuff and once you have a Broadband connection you find out other sites for news, stocks (Yahoo for example), Sport, music, etc, etc, etc. And you can certainly do without their exclusive pages. I have actually kept my AOL but rarely ever use it anymore.

I think Facebook will eventually falter for one reason or another.

JJacksET4

 

[JJacksET4]

Quote from MarketMasher:

...
Sure I've logged onto FB. But my reaction was, meh....

I must be about the youngest adult tech-knowledgeable guy (VB, VC++, Java, etc, etc.) who has NEVER, NEVER EVER used FB.

JJacksET4

 

[jedwards]

Quote from MarketMasher:


right now I see a lot of marketing. seems everything is future-tense - maybe this, maybe that... marketing.

EVERYTHING is marketing. That's the thing. I know someone who released a ringtone app on iPhone. He's not a tech. He's a marketing guy who licensed a bunch of stupid ringtones, and then went through and marketed this however he could. He made several hundred thousand dollars from it and there isn't anything particularly special about the app.

Entire companies like Proctor and Gamble and Coke are all simply marketing. Don't underestimate the power of marketing, it can make billions of dollars. Humans are stupid.

and as for "But there are billions in India and China that still don't have access yet. " India - maybe. China? No way. Not unless he hands the security keys over so they can crack down on dissidents.

Come on, don't be so naive. You don't think someone like Zuckerberg who is on the record for calling people "Dumb f*cks" for trusting him wouldn't hand over whatever it took to get China on board? My impression is that he would do it in a heartbeat if he could get away with it. He has said he wants to get China back onto Facebook, he went there last month to talk with officials to get a sense for what it would take. It's coming.

 

[jedwards]

Quote from JJacksET4:

Yeah, but this is the EXACT same thing that AOL had about 10 years ago - I used to have their standard full paid subscription and you would log in, check your email - check the "AOL news" check the "AOL stocks", "AOL Sport", whatever - they had pages for AOL Music, AOL Videos, downloads, software, they had exclusive pages that even with an internet connection you couldn't get to otherwise, etc. Eventually a person tires of having to login to AOL for that stuff and once you have a Broadband connection you find out other sites for news, stocks (Yahoo for example), Sport, music, etc, etc, etc. And you can certainly do without their exclusive pages. I have actually kept my AOL but rarely ever use it anymore.

I think Facebook will eventually falter for one reason or another.

JJacksET4

Yes, and look at the valuation of AOL as it peaked. At its peak it was worth something like $200 billion.

If you look at Yahoo, it's a piece of shit, and its still one of the most visited site on the Net. Carol Bartz is busy amputating piece after piece of that shithole, and it still is worth billions and gets hundreds of millions of users per month.

I'm not saying Facebook is infallible. I'm saying there's a chance they could become a trillion dollar company because all of the stars are aligning for them. People want to stick with Facebook because of their friends, and friends etc are sticky. It's not like news and sports, because the same content is available everywhere. Not your friends feed. That's where the value comes from. It's up to them to fuck up. They could very well be supplanted at some point, and kids who aren't even born yet might find it boring.

 

[JJacksET4]

Quote from jedwards:

Yes, and look at the valuation of AOL as it peaked. At its peak it was worth something like $200 billion.

Yeah, but when AOL was at its peak, many people used it to actually connect to the internet and therefore paid a fee such as $20/month - they didn't just get money from ads. Also, AOL kind of tricked some people into thinking certain sites were only for AOL customers, etc. As far as I understand FB is free, and noone would pay for FB just to go to the internet anyway, that's for sure.

Quote from jedwards:

If you look at Yahoo, it's a piece of shit, and its still one of the most visited site on the Net. Carol Bartz is busy amputating piece after piece of that shithole, and it still is worth billions and gets hundreds of millions of users per month.

Actually, I like some things about Yahoo - their basic stock page is still about the nicest one out there despite 1000s of competitors - it's quick to load and view stocks when you don't want to log in, etc. Some of their news pages and stuff are good as well - I don't use all the other Yahoo stuff, so can't comment much on the rest. They are a good site for a quick check on what is going on in the world while you are at work, etc.

JJacksET4

 

[lindq]

Quote from JJacksET4:

I must be about the youngest adult tech-knowledgeable guy (VB, VC++, Java, etc, etc.) who has NEVER, NEVER EVER used FB.

JJacksET4

I as well refuse to be assimilated. Facebook's success is due to the overwhelming pressure most people feel to be accepted by a group.

It's peer pressure porn.

"Oh, you aren't like on Facebook? Like, really? Like why not?"

Because I'm not a lemming, that's like why not.

 

[Enfinity]

The people will adapt by learning the fine art of disinformation. Once the pool of data is critically tainted the entire monster is doomed. It's the same thing with securitizations and that's why millions of borrowers received mortgage modifications. If you pretend the asset is performing, it is...or is it?

If the metrics that define who is to be extended credit, how much and at what cost are tainted...

Quote from MarketMasher:

I think it is interesting that as browsers move toward MORE privacy (private browsing mode added), FB is the opposite, allowing developers (advertisers?) to access home addresses and phone numbers.

It depends on when people get pissed that whatever they do on FB is going to be sold to....whomever.

But without that, how does FB make money?