Facebook - IPO

Quote from peilthetraveler:

I wouldnt buy it, but why do you think it would be hard to justify a $10 billion market cap? Facebook makes $5 billion dollars per year. Which makes its price only 20 times earnings.

By comparison, Visa makes $9 billion per year and has a $78 billion dollar market cap. I think Facebook has a fair value of around $50 billion right now, but I still wouldnt buy it at that market cap because of the risk factor. AOL was worth almost 200 billion 12 years ago. Today its worth 2.5 billion, just a little over 1% of its old value. Same thing could happen to FB.

But I think many of you do not understand FBs marketing capability. FB is the equivalent of owning the only TV station in the world that airs the superbowl, world cup, and all boxing ppv events. The advertising paid to reach these audiences is staggering, and its as if the superbowl, world cup and world heavyweight title is being fought every single day. Now sure that could change in the future, but right now FB has all the customers.

So it does have more value than most of you think, but the risk that FB might not be top dog in 5 years makes this investment not worth it.

facebook doesn't make 5 billion per year
they make around 1 billion that means their P/E will be around 100
given that people start loosing interest and that 1 billion might be their highest income and will start to decline soon
 
Quote from kashirin:

facebook doesn't make 5 billion per year
they make around 1 billion that means their P/E will be around 100
given that people start loosing interest and that 1 billion might be their highest income and will start to decline soon


They make around $4 billion a year.


I have been thinking the same exact thing, facebook isnt going public with 8 million members or 89 million members they are going public with nearly 1 billion members so if they are grabbing a billion a quarter in revenue with nearly 1 billion members whats going to happen when they start to lose people to the next trend, what I am trying to say is that most if not all of their revenue comes from advertising, they start losing members and revenues are going to come down extremely hard, as I said many times before this company is EXTREMELY overvalued, how anyone can think this company is worth $100 Billion is beyond me. There is way too much hype around this company. WAYYYY to much hype, in a few years this company will be lucky to still have a value of $50 billion.
 
Quote from S2007S:

There is way too much hype around this company. WAYYYY to much hype, in a few years this company will be lucky to still have a value of $50 billion.

Yes, but everybody has to buy because the somebody's not in early have to be the bag-holders. :D

Oddly enough, I think FB can soar, at least early-on, because so many with deep pockets need it to.

But the best part about it all is watching how the Wall St hype machine works, and how relentless it is. Do the beer chug thing and have a beer every time someone on a financial station says "FaceBook" leading up to the IPO and soon after. Or count how many times they say it in 1 day. :D

They are going to make it Big! Just because. :D
 
Quote from MarketMasher:

Yes, but everybody has to buy because the somebody's not in early have to be the bag-holders. :D

Oddly enough, I think FB can soar, at least early-on, because so many with deep pockets need it to.

But the best part about it all is watching how the Wall St hype machine works, and how relentless it is. Do the beer chug thing and have a beer every time someone on a financial station says "FaceBook" leading up to the IPO and soon after. Or count how many times they say it in 1 day. :D

They are going to make it Big! Just because. :D


Agree, I think its going to jump on the first day of trading, Im sure it goes to triple digits but of course there are going to be bag-holders, there always is and this one will have lots and lots and lots and lots of them!
 
Kind of offtopic, but I think we have a reason to celebrate:

Quote from SouthAmerica:

May 15, 2012

SouthAmerica:

First, I would like to congratulate you, for finally learning how to use the Quote button!!! Good work!! It only took 7 years for you to do so, but hey, not everyone of us is good at the interwebs.

Second, I hope you don't need another 7 years to figure out that:

1. You don't need to date your post, there is already a time stamp on it.

2. You don't need to say who is saying what. The quoted post is the person whom you respond, and whatever is in your post is you. That simple... Almost every message board works the same way.

Good luck for the next 7 years and cheer up, it is only a game, and hype (or trend) is your friend...
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

I wouldnt buy it, but why do you think it would be hard to justify a $10 billion market cap? Facebook makes $5 billion dollars per year. Which makes its price only 20 times earnings.

...But I think many of you do not understand FBs marketing capability. FB is the equivalent of owning the only TV station in the world that airs the superbowl, world cup, and all boxing ppv events. The advertising paid to reach these audiences is staggering, and its as if the superbowl, world cup and world heavyweight title is being fought every single day. Now sure that could change in the future, but right now FB has all the customers.

So it does have more value than most of you think, but the risk that FB might not be top dog in 5 years makes this investment not worth it.

May 16, 2012

SouthAmerica: Reply to peilthetraveler

If Facebook is making $5 billion dollars per year and it's a growth company, then why one would give up complete control from such a cash machine and be bothered and waste a lot time with shareholders, and all kinds of government regulation regarding public companies?

A lot of people that I know from my circle of friends at Facebook, are spending less, and less time at Facebook, and some people started checking their wall on Facebook only a few times a week, and they are spending a lot less time on Facebook than they used to.

The Facebook guys decided to go public, before the numbers start to decline very fast as the global economic environment deteriorate as we descend into the second leg of the first great depression of the 21st century.

Just keep in mind the guys at Facebook and also from “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” are glad that there are so many suckers out there to hold the bag as these guys cash out and make a killing at your expense.

You seem to be eager to buy some Facebook stock – then decide how much money you are willing to lose with this Facebook IPO and place a stop-loss order for that amount such as 10, 20, or 50 percent.

For example a stop-loss order for 10% below the price you paid for the stock will limit your loss to 10%. This strategy allows investors to determine their loss limit in advance.

Then in the future you can tell your friends a good story regarding how much money you lost by gambling in the Facebook IPO.

The guys at Facebook and also from “Goldman Sachs the Pillage People” are glad that the world are full of suckers and fools for them to take them for a ride.

The corporate world is realizing that most people who connect to Facebook are not interested on their adds – most people just want to see pictures of their relatives and friends, and the comments regarding these pictures, or press the like bottom to show that you like some kind video that you posted on Facebook about a news event, or about some music group.

General Motors just announced that they are stopping advertising on Facebook, and very soon many other major corporations are also going to come to the same conclusion regarding their scarce and diminishing advertising dollars in the coming years.

Please, let me know how much money you lost with the Facebook IPO fiasco.



*****


Reuters – May 15, 2012
GM plans to stop advertising on Facebook
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-pl...RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3


The Reuters link about this news story is not there anymore, but you can see the same story at:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm...h/marketpulse (MarketWatch.com - MarketPulse)


.
 
Quote from S2007S:

They make around $4 billion a year.


I have been thinking the same exact thing, facebook isnt going public with 8 million members or 89 million members they are going public with nearly 1 billion members so if they are grabbing a billion a quarter in revenue with nearly 1 billion members whats going to happen when they start to lose people to the next trend, what I am trying to say is that most if not all of their revenue comes from advertising, they start losing members and revenues are going to come down extremely hard, as I said many times before this company is EXTREMELY overvalued, how anyone can think this company is worth $100 Billion is beyond me. There is way too much hype around this company. WAYYYY to much hype, in a few years this company will be lucky to still have a value of $50 billion.

Not 1 billion members.

Clarification: 1 billion accounts.

I have 3 of these accounts, and I know other people who also have multiple accounts.

.
 
Quote from Pekelo:

Kind of offtopic, but I think we have a reason to celebrate:



First, I would like to congratulate you, for finally learning how to use the Quote button!!! Good work!! It only took 7 years for you to do so, but hey, not everyone of us is good at the interwebs.

Second, I hope you don't need another 7 years to figure out that:

1. You don't need to date your post, there is already a time stamp on it.

2. You don't need to say who is saying what. The quoted post is the person whom you respond, and whatever is in your post is you. That simple... Almost every message board works the same way.

Good luck for the next 7 years and cheer up, it is only a game, and hype (or trend) is your friend...

I always knew how to use the quote bottom, but I like to post things my way.

.
 
Quote from S2007S:

Agree, I think its going to jump on the first day of trading, Im sure it goes to triple digits but of course there are going to be bag-holders, there always is and this one will have lots and lots and lots and lots of them!

Maybe they work their numbers to make sure the 1st earnings report is a blow-out. Just as "proof" that FB is as great as they have hyped it. :D

Guess you can catch a ride at least until then.... :D
 
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