Facebook (FB) earnings this Thursday, July 26.
- Thread starter diaoptions
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threw up $100 on it, trying out the "bunny ears" again (two cheap OTM flies around the implied move.)
with the stock at $27 and an implied $3-4 move, i picked up a 28/29/30 and a 24/25/26, each for .10, and hour before close.
again, trying to catch the move after/if it stabilizes/rebounds into opex. knowing one fly will be a write-off/worthless, while expecting the other to play with profitability long enough to make the whole trade positive.
we shall see,.. the 24/25/26 might go for more than .20 tomorrow, no?
with the stock at $27 and an implied $3-4 move, i picked up a 28/29/30 and a 24/25/26, each for .10, and hour before close.
again, trying to catch the move after/if it stabilizes/rebounds into opex. knowing one fly will be a write-off/worthless, while expecting the other to play with profitability long enough to make the whole trade positive.
we shall see,.. the 24/25/26 might go for more than .20 tomorrow, no?
Not to undermine your accomplishments but usually when one uses very little sizing is because you don't trust what you are doing.
The AMZN 205/220/235 Weekly Fly at $2.45 looks like it will be a big winner, close to maximum payout of $1500.00. After similar flies with GOOG and AAPL which just barely squeaked out a break even I didn't bother with AMZN earnings. I thought for sure it would have moved more than 0.85%.
We will see how AMZN does tomorrow.
We will see how AMZN does tomorrow.
spot on! haha i've only been trading options for a year and a half.. and i wanna live to see the days where i know what i'm doing! i'll only assume i know what im' doing when my trading history starts to show good profits and even though i'll be doubtful about where my risk might be that i can't see.
i do know about being confident and putting your money where your mouth is.. i've put on large trades but FB seems like such a mess and earnings are so odd to bet on for me.. so yeah your freaking EXACTLY RIGHT freaking A
Quote from diaoptions:
The AMZN 205/220/235 Weekly Fly at $2.45 looks like it will be a big winner, close to maximum payout of $1500.00. After similar flies with GOOG and AAPL which just barely squeaked out a break even I didn't bother with AMZN earnings. I thought for sure it would have moved more than 0.85%.
We will see how AMZN does tomorrow.
thats the thing right.. if your going to sell atm butterflys through earnings.. the one time you don't do its on the trade your profit would have been. it is all right there in that trade!
Ive been long butterflying to no avail for very low costs through earnings announcements.. its set up such that one or two can make all the difference in the 5 or 8 trades you put on through earnings.. i hit my head at earnings time of year alot.. i totally have that sense i knew fb was going to miss after the fact. or that apple wouldn't blow out this quarter.. or that netflix's business profile could be going down the drain.. it all looks so clean and neat in hindsight as if it shoudl have been clear to me.. haha
I don't think you understand butterflies and how they should be structured. With an implied $3-4 move on a $27.00 stock that comes to 30/31 and 23/24. So the body of the butterflies should have a strike of 30 or 31 and 23 or 24 not 29 and 25 as in your butterflies.
This is spot on, had the exact same experience. The likes were all from bogus accounts.