Facebook Crash

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanv...book-insiders-an-excruciating-wait-has-begun/

More info on all those lock up shares and why many insiders will dump. Dated but useful articles. This one has GRPN lock up price performance written all over it. Like GRPN, market players will depress the price before the date to create panic with negative news constantly flying hot off the press. Shorting any pop and hold before those dates can be key. Early birds get the biggest worms lol. The last sentence of the article really crack me up.:D


AUG 16............. 268M SHARES
OCT 15-NOV 13...... 247M SHARES
NOV 14............. 1.2B SHARES
DEC 14............. 123M SHARES
MAY 18............. 47M SHARES
------------------------------
TOTAL.............. 1.885 BILLION SHARES

Get ready to buy it cheap or short.
 
Quote from Chuck E. Cheese:


FB even with low earnings can still scrape out decent income due to low operating costs and companies giving the ads a try. But as soon as the companies found out that the ads doesn't translate to $ (as very few clicked on them and let face it the FB crowd doesn't use FB to buy/research on products, there's eBay, Amazon, retail, + other venues and medias), than it's good bye and good night for many of them but this can take a year or two to play out.
More...
Exactly...there was a stock that behaved just like this back in 2004.
It was IPIX.
Super-volatile. One day, all rallies started to get sold short.
A year later, they were toast....no longer in business.
 
The whole concept of the SUPPLY of advertising venues increasing to the point of causing rate cuts is real....I think.
Rate cuts = lower profit growth.
The old supply/demand curve....still at work.
 
FB is:

A koi wanted to become a dragon (AAPL)

A raven wanted to become a peacock (GOOG)

Investors wanted to make easy money...:p (so far it's anything but easy):)

Even if it does go the route of AAPL, there's still more pain to come if the stock has to fall back down closer to it's intrinsic value. Current investors have been Zuckered low and clear. Just bag holders (amateurs and professionals alike) still in various stages of denial. Once the float become a billion share or more, than it's will be near impossible to corner. Then the market will find the "right" value for FB at the full float. I'm afraid, FB might have peaked or is near the peak, the current price is still a reflection of hopeful bulls looking for some positive surprises. Zuck has done his homework and has pumped the price up as high as he could via a long and deliberate IPO campaign of almost 2 years trying generate tremendous hype while his company revenue growth was showing signs of stalling.

Simply put, this could even be the breaking point of the social media bubble once privacy have regain its proper value.
 
Quote from Chuck E. Cheese:

FB is:

A koi wanted to become a dragon (AAPL)

A raven wanted to become a peacock (GOOG)

Investors wanted to make easy money...:p (so far it's anything but easy):)

Even if it does go the route of AAPL, there's still more pain to come if the stock has to fall back down closer to it's intrinsic value. Current investors have been Zuckered low and clear. Just bag holders (amateurs and professionals alike) still in various stages of denial. Once the float become a billion share or more, than it's will be near impossible to corner. Then the market will find the "right" value for FB at the full float. I'm afraid, FB might have peaked or is near the peak, the current price is still a reflection of hopeful bulls looking for some positive surprises. Zuck has done his homework and has pumped the price up as high as he could via a long and deliberate IPO campaign of almost 2 years trying generate tremendous hype while his company revenue growth was showing signs of stalling.

Simply put, this could even be the breaking point of the social media bubble once privacy have regain its proper value.
More...

Thats good insight... i'm neutral to bearish.. realistically things arent realistic.. its the other side of the coin that makes me think that you can't know the future.. i'm sure in other "tech bubbles" value investors were a bit confused as multiples continued to exponentially make no sense! intrinsic value is a slippery idea anyway.. but i'm not disagreeing with you.. sort of thinking outloud is alll

i want a limited upside risk neutral to bearish trade on this..
 
Just food for though...I guess. Reality, market doesn't trade on true value or rationality. I'm thinking that the market hasn't really written off FB, just yet. But it's hard to maintain very high price multiples when the growth prospect is highly suspect. Something has to give. I guess we'll find out more about FB after more earning reports and lock up expiration dates. Until then, FB will remain to be highly speculative but does have opportunities (long and short) provided that you can correctly anticipate the investor's expectations in relation to PA (because it's FB price engine for now).
 
Quote from Chuck E. Cheese:

Just food for though...I guess. Reality, market doesn't trade on true value or rationality. I'm thinking that the market hasn't really written off FB, just yet. But it's hard to maintain very high price multiples when the growth prospect is highly suspect. Something has to give. I guess we'll find out more about FB after more earning reports and lock up expiration dates. Until then, FB will remain to be highly speculative but does have opportunities (long and short) provided that you can correctly anticipate the investor's expectations in relation to PA (because it's FB price engine for now).
More...

maybe its easier to predict volatility then direction with this one .... ya think?
 
its probably like GOOG has been, goes sideways for a looonngg time while earnings grow

disappoints both bears and bulls
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top