F the Fake Guru Thread: this is real advice

OddTrader said:
Q
The First Law of Trading: For every trader, there exists an equal and opposite trader. Said by the Mentor!

The Second Law of Trading: They're both losing. Said by the Market-Maker!
UQ
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The market maker is a market maker because he is not a trader. Why is he not a trader? Because he is not able to make money as a trader.
The market maker made two laws of trading based on his own experience and limitations.
I can make the opposite statements. Are they less valid? I make money as a trader, and probably more than this market maker does.
 
wwatson1 said:
What happened with gann and elliot? No joy?
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It is called advertising, if CNBC doesn't have same advisory each month promoting through five minute Dog and Pony show and they are trading Elliott, Gann, Planet or Tea leafs, the general public will not buy into it. Back in 80s when Robert Prechter spoke - people listened and yet he averaged 22%* based on a whooping 24 sample size, but he gave huge sell signal in July of 1987 on a Friday and market took huge dump next week, Larry Williams made 10,000% in his contest account and all flooded him with funds to manage-CNBC had him on TV constantly and people bought it up yet most don't know he has several accounts going and he had dropped 1-2 million bucks by end of contest, big drawdown, and Cabot Letter based on indicators, fundamental and technical doing 60% in 50 forecasts.
*http://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-are-the-most-least-accurate-stock-gurus/

Over all guru's that sell letters are right a bit under 50% and depending on stops, you can do well. If I was to subscribe I would look at the bad years performances first before the great years, too often the flyers lose horrible in bad years.
 
Luck plays a massive role in the trading game. I think it's more about the 'luck of the journey' rather than the luck on any individual trade.

Luck is irrelevant to a trader with a consistent edge that is refined and continually refined over time. However what got that trader to become consistent and have that edge I think is massively influenced by luck.

Finding a good mentor - a lot of luck
Your interpretation of your first 20 trades - A lot of luck
Being born in a country that isn't a war zone - luck

There's a degree of luck to everything. However theres definately a distinction between the 'luck on the journey' and 'long term luck'. In any job you can be lucky to get a position and even keep it, in the trading world you can get a decent position or managing money through luck, but you won't keep it if your performance sucks. Thats where the luck ends.

The truly great traders in the world may have been lucky to get to where they are, but their continued consistency has nothing to do with luck.
 
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marketsurfer said:
EVERY real trader/speculator will admit that LUCK plays a HUGE role in the game. HFT edge and arbitrage guys who lock in profits prior to risking are the ONLY ONES who luck does not play a huge part of success-- even for them, it can be argued that the luck of the market remaining the same and not changing plays a huge role overall surf
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From your posts I've read recently I've gathered that you're more of a fundamental trader.

I can see why you have this understanding of luck. You could be completely right on a trade but get stopped out due to the market staying 'wrong' for an extended period.

HFT firms are obviously the other extreme, front running and essentially stealing money for free.

But arent there traders in between? Where luck is so insignificant that it can be ignored?
 
Wingz said:
Luck plays a massive role in the trading game. I think it's more about the 'luck of the journey' rather than the luck on any individual trade.

Luck is irrelevant to a trader with a consistent edge that is refined and continually refined over time. However what got that trader to become consistent and have that edge I think is massively influenced by luck.

Finding a good mentor - a lot of luck
Your interpretation of your first 20 trades - A lot of luck
Being born in a country that isn't a war zone - luck

There's a degree of luck to everything. However theres definately a distinction between the 'luck on the journey' and 'long term luck'. In any job you can be lucky to get a position and even keep it, in the trading world you can get a decent position or managing money through luck, but you won't keep it if your performance sucks. Thats where the luck ends.

The truly great traders in the world may have been lucky to get to where they are, but their continued consistency has nothing to do with luck.
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i totally agree with you about differentiating luck on 'getting to the right environment' and 'luck on the journey'. I see this all the time. an example - young guy steps into the right environment quickly as his older brother is a successful well capitalized trader. This is lucky however how he then makes his daily crust has little to do with luck.
 
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