Exxon...An example of income generation from covered calls

Cabin111 said:
It can be done with the right companies and timing...
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Of course it *can* be done. You can always walk up to a craps table and instantly roll double six. But you'd be a fool to bet on it. Or anything else at a craps table for that matter.

You still have not told me WHO you think is paying you this apparent free money you have discovered. I'll answer it for you: Goldman Sachs and the other large banks who make markets in options.

Now tell me why they are paying you for your option. Please. If you can answer that question then you don't even have to do the math to see why this isn't an income in the long run.
 
FreeGoldRush said:
Of course it *can* be done. You can always walk up to a craps table and instantly roll double six. But you'd be a fool to bet on it. Or anything else at a craps table for that matter.

You still have not told me WHO you think is paying you this apparent free money you have discovered. I'll answer it for you: Goldman Sachs and the other large banks who make markets in options.

Now tell me why they are paying you for your option. Please. If you can answer that question then you don't even have to do the math to see why this isn't an income in the long run.
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Not "free money"... Who: market makers, banks, stock brokers, hedge funds, pension funds, foreign governments, wealthy people in other countries, individuals. Why; they believe they know where the stock will be in the future. They can buy (low) and sell (high) their stock to other gullible people. This can happen especially during earning and dividend announcements. They also greatly control the market in which they are in.

Do I win this game??
 
Cabin111 said:
Not "free money"... Who: market makers, banks, stock brokers, hedge funds, pension funds, foreign governments, wealthy people in other countries, individuals. Why; they believe they know where the stock will be in the future. They can buy (low) and sell (high) their stock to other gullible people. This can happen especially during earning and dividend announcements. They also greatly control the market in which they are in.

Do I win this game??
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The most you can earn on XOM out the Jan is 7%. That's six weeks of stat vol. You feel you're winning bc cognitive dissonance.
 
Hm...interesting. I mean, everyone knows already that CCs are shit as a trading and investing strategy, no doubt...BUT:


A friend of mine recently got into stocks and he was seeking advice. I told him to dollar cost average into the SPY and some high dividend yield single names each month and forget about the trading part.

"But then I don't even trade"

Then I said he should be selling 15-10 delta calls 30 days out on his index position to "enhance the returns". They don't do anything in terms of P/L, they will never get exercised, the risk is the same as dollar cost averaging and the CCs keep him busy.



Even though covered calls have negative expected value unless the bet on vol is structured correctly, they CAN give you a couple of bucks extra and make you feel like you're doing something when you are actually not.

Unless you start to do funky stuff like overwites and synthetic short straddles, your risk isn't really higher than with a traditional stock portfolio.
 
FreeGoldRush said:
My statement about quants at Goldman was not meant to be general and apply to everything. Bottom line is that if you want to win you have to explore a lot of strategies and you *must* know what you can sell at or buy at to be profitable. You can't just go to Goldman and take whatever they are offering for the option you want. You will get annihilated that way. Goldman may very well price inefficiently at times but you have to know what number you are looking for. And you won't find it on Exxon where the stock and its options are nearly the most studied in the market.
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he’s selling a call presumably because he has some view on the distribution of Exxon (that it won’t sell off much).

He didn’t trade it because Goldman was looking to offload inventory to a sucker.
 
newwurldmn said:
he’s selling a call presumably because he has some view on the distribution of Exxon (that it won’t sell off much).

He didn’t trade it because Goldman was looking to offload inventory to a sucker.
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He described his call selling as an income stream. I did not presume anything.
 
MrMuppet said:
Even though covered calls have negative expected value unless the bet on vol is structured correctly, they CAN give you a couple of bucks extra and make you feel like you're doing something when you are actually not.
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This is why people do it and the reason people are able to sell books about how to do it. If you weren't too good at math or engineering then you simply don't know you are being fooled. The height of arrogance is thinking the math doesn't matter so long as you believe it doesn't matter.

There's a time to use your spidey sense and there's a time to ignore those inner feelings. Knowing the difference keeps you out of a lot of trouble.
 
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