Extremely Intresting Market Still Ahead: We Are At A Crossroad

[shortie]

Quote from noddyboy:

As I mentioned, as this is not a total return index, the dividends paid brings the index lower than it really it, so it is easier to hit the 200SMA but it does not represent real economic loss in value. When you use SPY, stockcharts uses the total return as I verified with Bloomberg.

they remove the dividend from SPY as well. you will see it change in value on ex-div day.

***edit***
what's strange is that the dividend is apparently indeed taken out of SPX but not out of SPY in stockcharts based on the ratio and looking 3 years back. maybe they back-adjust the values after ex-div. i always see SPY lower in value by ex-div amount in stockcharts after the dividend is paid.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:SPY&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89476911006

 

[Lojanica]

Quote from Lojanica:

Could 1100 ish be the low for tomorrow---could be. Is that the low for a week?

Badda bing badda boom.

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

they remove the dividend from SPY as well. you will see it change in value on ex-div day.

***edit***
what's strange is that the dividend is apparently indeed taken out of SPX but not out of SPY in stockcharts based on the ratio and looking 3 years back. maybe they back-adjust the values after ex-div. i always see SPY lower in value by ex-div amount in stockcharts after the dividend is paid.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:SPY&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89476911006

Yes, my bloomberg settings plot SPY adjusted for diviends (add it back) and it matches stockcharts. I have no idea what experts say -- follow the economically correct or the popular. Depends on why you think 200SMA works I guess...

 

[shortie]

Quote from shortie:

put/call 1.53 is there a major news pending????

still incredibly high 1.44, so it was not FOMC minutes. i dont see anything in the calendar. VIX is at 36.

what is the worry???

 

[Petsamo]

Quote from noddyboy:

The difference I believe is dividends -- you need the total return index of SP500, not the SPX to do your analysis of 200SMA...

Noddyboy, let's not get nitpicky. These technicals are not that reliable - period. How many times have you seen a dragonfly doji accurately predict a coming upmove? You don't want to play, stay long on your gold!

 

[noddyboy]

Quote from Petsamo:

Noddyboy, let's not get nitpicky. These technicals are not that reliable - period. How many times have you seen a dragonfly doji accurately predict a coming upmove? You don't want to play, stay long on your gold!

Gold hurt today. So did long stocks.

 

[Petsamo]

Quote from noddyboy:

Gold hurt today. So did long stocks.

According to my indicators, it's a coin toss as to whether we gap up or down tomorrow. We finished red, but we did better than Europe.

 

[virtualmoney]

What interesting market? Sudden 1Kpoints drop in dow followed by declining trend simply means big speculators sell in May and go play worldcup, and more small traders realise it too...

 

[kubchaser]

Quote from noddyboy:

Gold hurt today. So did long stocks.

I know.. both got hurt today. My gold producing company has a sizeable pull back from previous high.

It seems like the recent sell-off is a reflection of 1) Smart Money getting out 2) retail investors being cautious about the uncertainty. Supply is definitely higher than Demand.

The news is also playing a role in this high volatility market: one moment is Greece and Euro, the other moment is Chinese "bubble" concern. Despite the positive data of Canada and US, investors are being extra careful these days.

I pulled out some today. It's better to save my cash than to be sorry.

 

[shortie]

no comments on high put/call and high VIX? given the level of fear, odds are we have seen the bottom and are ready for a bounce (rally for a couple of days at least).

put/call is back to 2007-08 levels BTW.