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Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of ET
- Thread starter Arthur Deco
- Start date
I am reluctant to corrupt this fine qualitative thread with some analysis, but I am getting heartily sick of the platitudes and attitudes here. You want to see a delusion? YM leads ES by a couple of minutes? If it does, then DJX should lead SPX, right? Attached is a one minute chart of SPX yesterday (the top pane). The second pane is the minute-to-minute change in SPX. The third pane is the minute-to-minute change in DJX. The fourth pane is a "helper" (red-light-short, green-light-long) showing the number of times a two minute or longer divergence between DJX and SPX predicted a change in the direction of SPX. You don't see any? That's because it doesn't ever happen! (And it hasn't happened in the past few days I have charted it.) WHAT are they smoking to see that?
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Quote from Joe Doaks:
I am reluctant to corrupt this fine qualitative thread with some analysis, but I am getting heartily sick of the platitudes and attitudes here. You want to see a delusion? YM leads ES by a couple of minutes?
You're right, it's a crock. I can't believe I wasted a month of my life on it.
I am on a selfless mission to disabuse the Hershey cult of the primary tenet (or as Jack would say, "tenant") of SCT: the delusion that YM leads ES. It is so egregious that one needs a new word for it, delusion + illusion = dillusion. Not being a cultist myself I have no YM subscription, but I figure if YM leads ES then we should see DJX lead SPX, and don't tell me that variations in the premium are causing the alleged effect. I posted this approach a couple of days ago to absolutely no notice. Here goes again. Voila! A divergence today at 7:31 PT! Too bad it predicted wrong. Not even Jack will claim the lead is eight minutes.
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Oh, give it a rest, Joe! Nobody gives a slippery slimy shit on ET about ANALYSIS. It's all about BELIEF. And dillusion, as you put it. Are you sure you didn't plagiarize that spelling from Jack?
Anyway, today's insight was prompted by the flurry of posting as volatility increased in recent days (especially by you-know-who, who should have been minding their charting). Today it's dead, as is the posting.
Making it perfectly clear that ET is an escape mechanism for when you can't bear to look at the market because it's moving scarily fast. Better to fling insults at each other and crow about the profits you would have made had you been trading instead of simming.
Anyway, today's insight was prompted by the flurry of posting as volatility increased in recent days (especially by you-know-who, who should have been minding their charting). Today it's dead, as is the posting.
Making it perfectly clear that ET is an escape mechanism for when you can't bear to look at the market because it's moving scarily fast. Better to fling insults at each other and crow about the profits you would have made had you been trading instead of simming.
So right, Art. Belief IS everything...Credo in Unum Jackum...
And ET is if anything hypoanalytical.
And ET is if anything hypoanalytical.
Yeah, laugh you psycho-monkeys! You couldn't code a third-order Kalman even if you knew what it was! So far this morning there have been five DJX/SPX divergences, ALL wrong! But you'll have to wait to tonight to see them. I am going to keep pounding on this until a Jacker who can fucking CODE proves me wrong. Not likely (the CODE part).
You are such a snot, Joe. And an idiot to boot. I coded up the same thing (not so hard as you make out, dummy) and made a remarkable discovery. It's such a bad predictor that it's contrary! Joe, SPX leads DJX!
Hmmm. You may have something there. Of the nine two minute divergences today, eight incorrectly predicted the subsequent SPX move. What do you call a delusion whose opposite is correct? A contrary illusion or contusion? As the old joke goes, "The Northern Baptist says, there ain't no hell. The Southern Baptist says, the hell there ain't!" Jack, are you reading this? Could we be on to something here? I remember Hypo saying that to study you is heuristic, but this is ridiculous, if not rediculous.
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Joe this is serious as I can muster given that we are just a finger of our imagination;
1) DJX is not YM they are forever different by the width of $PREM
2) I did look at your chart and I can not make head or tail of what is is about so I can't make any comment on it and I presume other feel the same. The chart was fuzzy and told me no tale, wait, maybe that is the point then I got it.
3) get another data provider, one that give you YM data for free since it is still free from CBOT, may I suggest mytrack.
You are missing out the best part of the course (so far) Don't be left behind!
1) DJX is not YM they are forever different by the width of $PREM
2) I did look at your chart and I can not make head or tail of what is is about so I can't make any comment on it and I presume other feel the same. The chart was fuzzy and told me no tale, wait, maybe that is the point then I got it.
3) get another data provider, one that give you YM data for free since it is still free from CBOT, may I suggest mytrack.
You are missing out the best part of the course (so far) Don't be left behind!