Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of ET
- Thread starter Arthur Deco
- Start date
Hey PTR, great to hear from you again!
I'm not sure I can trust you, actually. Sorry.
What is expectancy exactly? How is it determined? How does it help? (Clearly it does not otherwise there would be no unexpected losers, right?)
Honestly, all this pseudo-science quackery of probability and prediction is pretty delusional.
Best,
Peeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-1
Nothing delusional about it at all. I think we can take it as high probability that when you crash and burn trading due to the ambiguities of the "method" you will be cursing Jack.
As to trading itself, there are numerous setups which work with high probability because people believe they do. Belief backed by bucks makes anything possible in trading.
As to trading itself, there are numerous setups which work with high probability because people believe they do. Belief backed by bucks makes anything possible in trading.
You're right. You can only trust yourself. But will you be able to trust yourself when things go wrong in trading, as they always do?
I agree making predictions is silly.
That's why there is no prediction involved in this method.
All you have to do is notice that change is afoot, press the button and hold until the next change (on your monitoring and skill level). We don't predict how long the move will last, how far it will go or place stops where they will be hit by noise - we monitor for change NOW. We stay on the right side and wash if we drew the wrong conclusion from the sufficient, recent past data set. We fall as beginners and we get back up.
It is so simple.
You really are very stuck: how many years have you attempted to learn something from Jack? You don't appear to be dumb, just very very stuck. Oh well.
At the moment you press the button you have just made a prediction, took a chance, placed a bet or [insert term here].
The very fact that you have a backup plan or contingency indicates that you understand the endeavor is probabalistic and yet you deny it !
Fantastic.
I love it.
A perfect example of Hershey programming his droids to avoid thinking for themselves. This guy at one point thought the idea of probability was worth exploring. The Minister of Truth set him straight. All traders must learn Newspeak.
"WE DONT PREDICT".
"PROBABILITIES ARE FOR THEM."
"Freedom is Slavery"
"War is Peace"
"Ignorance is Strength"
You must love big brother. It is not enough to obey him.
1984 George Orwell
Actually my disdain for prediction was drummed into me by previous experience (that I don't talk about here) and from the writings and musings of Ed Seykota, among others.
I supported your one-sided motion for debate, but you draw the wrong conclusion about which side I would argue.
Pressing the button does not constitute an act of prediction - it is just getting in long or short. Thereafter you are either on the right side or not. No probabilities are assigned to anything, no targets, no R/R comfort blanket, just IN NOW and hold until change.
You think that because more things could happen than do happen you can assign a number to each possible outcome and be more confident about it. Well to me that sounds like prediction and primitive soothsaying.
I want to hire you for my next venture, not sure whether it's going to be called Amtrade or Herbatrade. No experience required, and you haven't traded with real money yet, is that correct?