Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of ET

[Arthur Deco]

The latest Hershey Childrens' Crusade in Journals is proving to be a mother lode of self-deception. We have all been waiting for them to actually trade, and at last they did. Proving the fallacy of the delusion:

"All you need to trade profitably is a positive expectation system."

Do ya think they might oughta taught 'em the basics of trading FIRST?

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Quote from Arthur Deco:

Kind Moderator, though I have not met Dr. Elder, my belief from careful study of his site and consideration of his camps is the following. He is a physician, and all physicians love boondoggles. He and his followers go to trading camp in locales like Costa Rica to play golf, booze it up and chase dusky skirt. Elder's first book was the first I read on trading, and inspired by it I developed a profitable variation on his triple screen method. So I have a healthy respect for him, to no mean extent because he is the patron saint of trading drunks, having devoted fully a third of that first book to us. So I do believe in him. What could be simpler than triple screen? Yet he did give it away for a pittance. Knowing full well that other popular delusions would keep all but the saintliest of traders from exploiting it effectively. But we digress from the theme of why ET believes in Santa Claus.

lmao.

How is it that I completely overlooked this thread?

 

[PointOne]

Quote from Arthur Deco:

The latest Hershey Childrens' Crusade in Journals is proving to be a mother lode of self-deception. We have all been waiting for them to actually trade, and at last they did. Proving the fallacy of the delusion:

"All you need to trade profitably is a positive expectation system."

Do ya think they might oughta taught 'em the basics of trading FIRST?

At some point there is a change in sentiment and conventional wisdom becomes outdated superstition as the new modus takes over. Think about it.

Probability: more things could happen than do happen. So lets assign some ratios to these outcomes, based on what exactly...

I prefer to focus on what IS happening NOW. Why bet?

 

[Arthur Deco]

I stand by my assertion, which apparently went right over your newbie head, that there is FAR more to trading profitably than a system. Notably, personal psychology and understanding what is REALLY happening at the moment. And Jack et al. don't even give you a SYSTEM. Rather it is a mishmash of "indicators" which don't test out individually but which allegedly magically work in the ensemble. Jack's utter ignorance, or ignoring, of classical TA is even more telling. It has been reported that Jack actually trades ES intraday, and well, but from what I see he must be doing it intuitively and, NLP style, just THINKING he consciously knows what he does. Contrast that with people here who trade systems and can tell you EXACTLY what and why they do what they do. Kindly do post your executions for all to see and be amused when YOU start trading live. I'll be here to provide therapy if you want it.

 

[PoundTheRock]

Quote from PointOne:

At some point there is a change in sentiment and conventional wisdom becomes outdated superstition as the new modus takes over. Think about it.

Probability: more things could happen than do happen. So lets assign some ratios to these outcomes, based on what exactly...

I prefer to focus on what IS happening NOW. Why bet?

PointOne, you're a minnow in the ocean of trading psychology. The good traders trade, while others are cogs in a multi-level marketing scheme. What are you going to do when your desire to philosophize meets the hard reality of drawdowns? You don't want to get to the point where you drink the last drop of KoolAid in Hersheytown. For example, have you performed a basic runs test, and how does that mesh with your intense desire to win? I am a strong believer in frameworks, and one can choose Drummond, Wyckoff, Jackoff, etc. But in the context of the framework, the profit is in the implementation details, backed by rigorous, evidence-based statistical analysis, unless you are fortunate enough to be blessed by information flow. I am reminded of the scene in Twelve Angry Men where Henry Fonda wonders aloud in the jury room why an old man falsely testifies to witnessing a murder. The jurors look around, and the camera pans in to the elderly juror who says "Maybe he just wanted the attention." The opportunity to examine a framework under construction is wonderful, but realize that this is only the first step.

Regards,

PTR

 

[PoundTheRock]

Quote from Arthur Deco:

I stand by my assertion, which apparently went right over your newbie head, that there is FAR more to trading profitably than a system. Notably, personal psychology and understanding what is REALLY happening at the moment. And Jack et al. don't even give you a SYSTEM. Rather it is a mishmash of "indicators" which don't test out individually but which allegedly magically work in the ensemble. Jack's utter ignorance, or ignoring, of classical TA is even more telling. It has been reported that Jack actually trades ES intraday, and well, but from what I see he must be doing it intuitively and, NLP style, just THINKING he consciously knows what he does. Contrast that with people here who trade systems and can tell you EXACTLY what and why they do what they do. Kindly do post your executions for all to see and be amused when YOU start trading live. I'll be here to provide therapy if you want it.

We are in hemisync. And one day Jack will figure out that I was complementing him on his neuroplasticity.

 

[Arthur Deco]

PTR. I am twelve years younger than the legendary trading auteur Jackov, but I can assure you that even at my age plasticity is hard to come by, much less neuro. Jack IS plastic, because I have seen him accept and advocate ideas I wrote about years ago. But it is the plasticity of continental drift. I am a firm believer that if you want to learn something, like sex, you have to do it often, with persistence, and with no regrets as to the cost. Trading is the best way to learn trading. Annotating fucking charts with imaginary lines utterly obscures the opportunity to perceive the reality of the markets. Art.

 

[PointOne]

Quote from PoundTheRock:

PointOne, you're a minnow in the ocean of trading psychology. The good traders trade, while others are cogs in a multi-level marketing scheme. What are you going to do when your desire to philosophize meets the hard reality of drawdowns? You don't want to get to the point where you drink the last drop of KoolAid in Hersheytown. For example, have you performed a basic runs test, and how does that mesh with your intense desire to win? I am a strong believer in frameworks, and one can choose Drummond, Wyckoff, Jackoff, etc. But in the context of the framework, the profit is in the implementation details, backed by rigorous, evidence-based statistical analysis, unless you are fortunate enough to be blessed by information flow. I am reminded of the scene in Twelve Angry Men where Henry Fonda wonders aloud in the jury room why an old man falsely testifies to witnessing a murder. The jurors look around, and the camera pans in to the elderly juror who says "Maybe he just wanted the attention." The opportunity to examine a framework under construction is wonderful, but realize that this is only the first step.

Regards,

PTR

You compare me to a minnow here, a sparrow splashing around in another thread...my! this should be called the Psych-out forum, not psychology. If I am so insignificant why do I bother you so much? You are an order of magnitude out in terms of my significance (you over-estimate).

I've done my testing in real time. I'm in training. I don't assign probabilities to stuff. I don't get into drawdowns and hope.

Thanks for the suggested reading and I've seen the film. It loops daily.

One day I may cease to post on ET and you may no doubt believe it is for one reason where others will know another reason.

regards

P1, the Philanthropic Parasite.

 

[PoundTheRock]

Quote from PointOne:

You compare me to a minnow here, a sparrow splashing around in another thread...my! this should be called the Psych-out forum, not psychology. If I am so insignificant why do I bother you so much? You are an order of magnitude out in terms of my significance (you over-estimate).

I've done my testing in real time. I'm in training. I don't assign probabilities to stuff. I don't get into drawdowns and hope.

Thanks for the suggested reading and I've seen the film. It loops daily.

One day I may cease to post on ET and you may no doubt believe it is for one reason where others will know another reason.

regards

P1, the Philanthropic Parasite.

Hi P1, thanks for your reply. Read your second paragraph again. "I've done my testing in real time", then "I don't get into drawdowns and hope." Trust me, there will come a time when you get into drawdowns and hope. Let's revisit your crew analogy in a trading context. You've prepared yourself physically and mentally, putting all your energy into a winning strategy. Your strategy has a positive expectancy, but you have an unexpected string of losses. The losses wear on you; you are losing money. What are the metrics that support your decision to continue using your strategy?

Regards,

PTR

P.S. I apologize for the intervention.

 

[Arthur Deco]

Dearest PeeOne. You obviously have not done your homework. Channel Rochester: "Do de name Nwbprop ring a bell, Sapphire?" I will be here for you when you cry out in pain and agony and despair, "My Hershey! My Hershey! Why hast Thou forsaken me?" Then I and all of mine will embrace you and teach you how to trade. I am sure that PTR will be gracious and assist me in my humanitarian efforts to lead all the disaffected and disillusioned Hersheyites to the Promised Land of trading. Best regards. Art.