Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of ET

Well, at least you are honest in saying you dont know if a relationship exists as you havent watched the mkts in realtime using PV. Unlike this Joe Doaks buffoon who opens his trap about how it doesnt exist and tries to use "surrogates" like the cash mkts when the method says NOTHING about those but you MUST use futures. Geez JoeD, get a clue :D


Quote from Thunderdog:

Interesting. Personally, I did not think that such a relationship was likely. Admittedly, I have not tested the relationship empirically because it makes little logical sense to me. If we are to accept that one index reliably leads another by a few minutes or so, irrespective of market circumstances, then we must accept the premise that all of the arbitrageurs in all the world are reliably asleep at the wheel during this period. That presumption is rather tenuous at best. I suppose that some people may indeed have leading indicators of some kind or other, but I suspect that they would fail to lead once word got out. Since YM and ES are out there for all the world to see and compare (i.e., there is nothing "proprietary" in the comparison), I think it is counterintuitive to expect such a public goose to lay eggs on cue.
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Quote from Joe Doaks:

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If you are old enough to recall who I am (a faded early fifties celluloid figure), then you will ignore everything I post, realizing that I am never up to any good. Kind regards.
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Quote from Harold Balls:

Well, at least you are honest in saying you dont know if a relationship exists as you havent watched the mkts in realtime...
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I think you should read my post again more carefully.
 
My, my! People on ET do so love to waste their time reading something they already know is nonsense!

There were 15 divergences today, 8 of them correct, 2 quite strikingly so. I think it those satisfyingly rare events that the faithful remember and cherish, all the other disappointing second comings being hastily forgotten.
 

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Quote from Thunderdog:

Interesting. Personally, I did not think that such a relationship was likely. Admittedly, I have not tested the relationship empirically because it makes little logical sense to me. If we are to accept that one index reliably leads another by a few minutes or so, irrespective of market circumstances, then we must accept the premise that all of the arbitrageurs in all the world are reliably asleep at the wheel during this period. That presumption is rather tenuous at best. I suppose that some people may indeed have leading indicators of some kind or other, but I suspect that they would fail to lead once word got out. Since YM and ES are out there for all the world to see and compare (i.e., there is nothing "proprietary" in the comparison), I think it is counterintuitive to expect such a public goose to lay eggs on cue.
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Yes it is unbelievable and worth checking out in real time.

Spyder's futures thread was not the place to discuss the "Why?" of this phenomena but this was my attempt at rationalising it:

Quote from PointOne:

Why does the signal appear on YM first? Perhaps a simple sum of 30 prices gets calculated quicker by the important market participants than a market weighted sum of 500 (implausible these days maybe, but I wouldn't discount it entirely). More importantly I think, when sentiment changes intraday (4 or 5 times usually), it takes longer for the 500 ducks to line up in a row in the underlying than the 30 in the smaller index. This effect would show up even if the indices had exactly the same granularity.

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WISTYI I'm fascinated as to why it works out this way - it's one of the best breaks we've been given as the "not-so-smart-money" and I'm surprised it hasn't been totally ironed out by the arbs. There must be good reasons why it can't be. I think it is very important to understand the other players in the market, their motives and operational limitations. Jack could help our understanding here. For now I'm just happy it works.
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What do you think?
 
Thank you, Pointless, for the first civil post in pages. An anti-Hershey madman has hijacked my thread and I must get it back on track. Hence I offer the following extraordinary popular delusion: "That the question of SCT's validity will eventually be established on ET". Regards to all. And Joe, give it a rest, will you? You made your point.
 
Schadentrade, you need help. And you have come to the right thread. Do you have a sense of deja vu? That you have been here before? I certainly do. Not that I object to reinventing onself. I have done it myself, many times. But eventually you lose a sense of self, and become soulless. Soulless in the ET machine. What is the cure? Humor me in a gedanken experiment.

On the non, you read that Jack has passed (life, not gas). Momentarily you feel elation! You megalomanic old bastard, you say! But wait, if I post that, he won't see it (at least, one hopes). Whither now shall I direct my rants? At Spydie? Too earnest. At Mak? Too stupid. To which of them said he at any time, this is my son, my beloved? None but Jack is worth the trouble to harrass.

Persheycution becomes impossible. You might just have to fucking quit whining and go improve your trading. I know. I reached that conclusion myself. Now if only I could do it....
 
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