Exporting jobs

Quote from dchang0:

I beg to differ about the "there is nowhere to move" statement. The fact that many of the laid-off IBMers I know or are acquainted with switched out successfully into other industries and careers shows that people can find new opportunities if they muster the courage and effort. And I know of no better motivation than fighting to survive (or at least maintain one's standard of living), so I have complete faith that those 5000 laid-off IBMers will find decent jobs, no matter how bleak it may appear to be.

Yes, you did get it right, though I never said it explicitly: I do believe that it's better for the nation and economy that these jobs be outsourced. For that, I refer you back to Phreedm's post on page 3 with the link to the article hosted at townhall.com. I am certain that American businesses will benefit from and are pushing towards far lower costs in IT. It's the commoditization and consolidation of tech--what else can I say? Happens in every industry and is absolutely unstoppable.

BTW, dddooo, you're welcome to suggest a specific solution for the 5000 IBMers, if you'd like. Don't take it personally, but I haven't seen a single solution for their plight presented in any of your posts so far... What's your recommendation?
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Regarding "nowere to move" - I believe you read a couple of excellent posts by axeman. I do not think I can explain it better then he did and his example of a CEO with a bonus in an empty office and whole staff in India is absolutely perfect.

Regarding whether it's good for the business - I agree, it is good for the business, at least short term. I am not sure it's good for the country though. It used to be the same, what was good for the business was good for the country. For one simple reason - a thriving business would spread wealth, expand, create new jobs, hire more people, pay higher rates and bonuses. That's still the case, except wealth spreading, job creation and hiring takes place overseas. So I can no longer equate good for the business with good for the country.

And unfortunately I do not have any advice for IBM people. That's exactly why I'm concerned with the situation and believe that this job export thing is getting out of control. Not that I know how to stop it either. When it was a low-wage blue-collar job it was a no-brainer - take a class, become an accountant, software developer, engineer etc. Now they should take classes to become what? Janitors, like in your example? I do not think so, but I don't have any better ideas either.

I guess we'll agree to disagree. :)
 
dddooo:

Thanks for a spirited discussion! Actually, I don't think we disagree that much. We both agree that the middle class is in real trouble, computer programming jobs (and many other high-paying white collar jobs) are going overseas, and no one person or group seems to have a solution for the overall problem.

We only really disagree on our sympathies towards the people involved. Since I made it outta IBM alive on my own without asking or needing help from anybody, I figure, "hey, if I can do it, anybody can!"

I also agree with axeman's posts for the most part, and here's the thing: what if we Americans become the CEOs with the bonuses with all of our staff outsourced overseas? That's a workable way out for the 5000 IBM souls--they can leverage our political and belief-system advantages (freedom, justice and the American way!) like our entrepreneurial spirit and stay on top. And I don't think they'd mind earning CEO-size compensation packages...

To be sure, that's the way I think thing's are going. I see America as becoming the executive management of the world (yow-sounds pretty elitist, huh? Don't worry, I don't say this in any condescending way towards the people of other nations. They have as much a chance as we do to take the top spot.) Of course, not every American is gonna want to be a CEO, but there are plenty of jobs that--like I said--have geographic requirements to keep them here. (Until we become "pure energy" beings like some science fiction writers like to ponder, we'll always have geographic and physical advantages to exploit.) I'm certainly not recommending that the IBMers become janitors--my suggestions are that they move vertically up towards overseer/designer/architect/technologist-type positions if they want to stay in IT.

And you're absolutely right that what's good for business is not necessarily good for this country. I think business is much further ahead on globalization than governments and always will be, because businesses must by their nature move faster and governments must (for human and civil rights) move slower.

Take it easy, dddooo. Nice talkin' with you. Now, I gotta go figure out how to save my own sorry butt from the axe that's gonna fall in two years or less--lol!
 
Ok.. I'll probably get a lot of crap... but I'll point out the only logical conclusion to all of this:

This country cannot turn on a dime. A few people on this thread are smart enough and forward thinking enough to adapt... But many of the jobs being lost are held by people in their 30s, 40s, and 50s who are raising families and fairly oblivious to any of this. These average families are not in a position to retrain themselves and "adapt or perish". And if they could, and if they had enough warning, and if they had the abilities... what would they adapt to? Another janitor, bellhop, or Subway entrepreneur? No. We will reach a point where these people won't be able to support themselves (or their children). And at that point they will try and fight back... But it won't be by adapting...

They will turn to the politicians. And the politicians will respond with protectionism and isolation. And when we still can't compete on a global basis, we will use military force to protect our way of life. But eventually we will lose that fight as well.

And it is at THAT point, that the country will "adapt or perish". I imagine (and hope) we're smart enough to reinvent ourselves without destroying ourselves. But, in any case, the US as it stands today will be no more. This is the only way an entire country can or will "adapt". Too much inertia.

Capitalism is all about removing efficiencies. And as someone mentioned on this thread... the US is one big, massive inefficiency.
 
You are being very pessimistic. Most likely there will be a lowering of the standard of living for a big portion of the middle class due to higher inflation or loss of jobs. But it probably won't be that bad as you are predicting.
I think we are just reverting to the mean. Over the last 10 years the gap between the standard of living in the US and the rest of the world had widened quite significantly(even compared to other developed countries). Even now after a big fall in the dollar the salaries in the US are probably higher than most european countries plus cost of most things in the US are lower. This was the only country where fresh college grads were able to afford a bmw.
The whole world is adopting capatilism and that means if you want to stay ahead of the pack you have to keep innovating and adapting. This is not true for just US workers but for everyone in the world.
I think the outcome will be in the middle of the road, where we give up some and the other countries gain some. We will still be probably the best place to live.
 
<<With the exception of lawyers, teachers and doctors pretty much any other white-collar profession can potentially be outsoursed>>
Lawyersmaybe, but Doctors and teachers...would not be so sure.
There is a robot that has recently been put on the market where as a Doctor in an other room with computer screens can perform some very tricky and sensitive surgery on a patient, with the help of a very sofisticated robotic arm and very small camera.
The coments made by the reporter was that with the internet the developers saied that the doctors could be at the opther end of the owrld and perform a bypass surgery.
So nothing is really safe from outsourcing......this is globalisation and it will keep on going on until all is equal , when India and China catch up to US and western Europeen wages, or that thos wages go down and they meet in the midle thate will be then the African continent....and it will all start over....
 
Quote from xbrxx:

[
I mean, if I was in charge of hiring scientists at Merck, I don't think I would hire at Chem PHD from University of Moscow over one from Harvard... even if I was to save the company 150,000! That 150,000 is not that much when millions of R&D dollars are being invested in their unique thought process.

]

But if you looked closer at those schools and see who the top researchers are, you might be surprised as to what countries are represented.
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Yeah, I think it aint going to be that drastic right away. Maybe in 10-20 years we might see some serious dislocations.

But change is a 2nd derivatives effect. It's always ACCELERATING. Non linear. A lot of people who are in the forecasting business kept thinking linearly about computers back in the 50s. That the big mainframes will be too big and clumsy for widespread usage. And it will have few applications outside of large biz and military.

Lo behold, the PC came along and changed that. With the PC accelerate the change. Then the Internet. Now, I think we will go EXPONENTIAL rate of change with BROADBAND. Countries like South Korea has like 90% broadband penetration rate thanks to government mandates!

Once the world is hooked up and go live, then we'll see some crazy fast changes that will make our heads spin!

Changes will come faster and faster than we can even imagine now..

But now the infrastructure isn't there yet worldwide..

But I'm sure the US will come up with something new.. But a vast majority of the Middle CLass will see their living standard LOWERED... I don't know about revolt and revolutions. But it will affect them deeply. They will have to accept lower salaries, menial work, or go back to school and try to move up the value ladder.

But guess what? It will be OK! Look at the Industrial Revolution. Millions of people QUIT farming and moved to the cities to find work. And farming did NOT die as an industry. It's just that we have fewer farmers. Manfacturing is in turn done overseas. Then came the Information Revolution. And millions of IT and computer jobs were created. So, in the next revolution hopefully MILLIONS more JOBS will be created...

But my bet is that the next revolution will be intellectually more demanding than the last. Just the way evolution of societies work. And you are right. People in the 40s and 50s with families to support will not be able to go back and learn nanotech or whatever that is next on the horizon. I mean gosh, even young people in their 20s will not be part of the nanotech revolution if they don't go to graduate schools to learn advanced physics and chemistry, math, computers,etc. that are the basis of the next revolution...

Scary to think about isn't it?
 
Offshoring Dulls Startups' U.S. Presence Dec. 15, 2003
Silicon Valley investors are pressuring entrepreneurs to shrink personnel costs by as much as 60% by sending jobs overseas.
By Rachel Konrad, AP Business Writer
http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=16700512

Vanishing jobs
Structural change in the economy means many jobs are never going to come back.
December 18, 2003: 1:32 PM EST
Leslie Haggin Geary, CNN/Money staff writer
http://money.cnn.com/2003/12/17/pf/q_nomorework/
 
Over the past 50 years we have enjoyed a worldwide lock on capitalism/free market and we profited very well from that competitive advantage. But that lock has expired. The secret is out. The question is... What advantage do we provide TODAY that will allow us to continue our standard of living?

Other than some temporary, dwindling advantages such as our immediate education, experience, and infrastructure, the answer is: NONE. NO LONG TERM COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE. Plus we have a greedy middle-class with a sense of entitlement and a corrupt, ineffectual political structure to support. That middle-class is not going to give up their comfortable homes, SUVs, golf courses and Starbucks lifestyle easily. And the bottom line is they provide no unique value to the global economy that earns that lifestyle.

It might be the US who comes up with the next big thing, but we should face the reality that by just sheer numbers, it will probably be someone else. There are BILLIONS of very smart, highly motivated Indians and Chinese who all want what we have. They're awake, aware, and hungry. I'm not saying they'll steal it. I'm saying they will respond in an evolutionary way, capitalism... figure a way to compete and beat us at our own game. We're the ones who will try to steal it back with force.

Ideas of what to do about it? I dont know... But there WILL be a global economy. Imagine a structure that can efficiently provide goods and services across the globe with equal access regardless of geography/nationality. Distributed cooperative resources with all voices heard. I imagine it will blend capitalism with an enlightened understanding that what's good for everyone is good for the one. That is where I believe we'll be in 40 years. One World government or at least a loose confederation of nations with a single respected authority who has the last word. It WON'T be the US (at least not in its current form). And getting from here to there is going to be painful.

If you're optimistic about the amount of pain we will have to experience to learn the lessons that will get us there, then you have much more faith in the masses' ability to learn, adapt, forsee, and plan than I do. The stock market is mass psychology. What happens there?
 
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