Exploring GordonTheGekko's "guessing" strategy

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Archin

Quote from GordonTheGekko:

Im a pretty young guy, and hence new to trading relatively, but im curious about how profficent some of the posters asking for the holy grail, or for a solid system, are at trading.

Ill let you in on one holy grail that works year round: guessing. Yes, thats right. Its as simple as GUESSING the direction of indicies, and/or do what everyone else is doing in the es journal thread. Have one or two tick stops, and let the correct guesses run more than two ticks.

Its THAT E-A-S-Y. After all, many of us are unemployable anyways.

The dow jones went from a few points to over 10,000 in the past centur. How could one not make money? Answer: theyre f'ing dumbasses who cant fight their way out of a wet paper bag.
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What does everyone think of this method? I tend to think that if you're taking random entries you can still do well, but you probably should have an edge in your exit.
 
Quote from Archin:

What does everyone think of this method? I tend to think that if you're taking random entries you can still do well, but you probably should have an edge in your exit.
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Good edges from my little knowledge, are a dime a dozen. A percent would do for a exit in the case of his strategy.

"Do your research and take a stand. If you are wrong, get out."
 
The problem I see is noise and commission. For example, most instruments especially ES don't trend in one direction in a straight line. They may continue to move up and down while forming a candle. The up and down movement of forming a candle is meaningless, and only after a candle is formed, can there be understanding if the time frame is higher than 1 min since unlike some traders, I consider 1 min to be noise.

So for example, the market can easily move 2 ticks against you before moving up. So you get to the point of over trading trying to catch trends.

Also, the other issue is commission, you don't just lose 2 ticks on a loss, you lose on commission.

Finally for me, I would either need a high win% system where I can have a equal stop and target, or a 40% - 50% system where I let a winner run.
 
I agreed that guessing the direction is as good as you used so called TA, as either method you are using, you are not any better than flipping a 50% coin.

A stop loss of 2-3 tick (plus commission) is a sure loss approach. Noise will kick you out for sure.
 
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