Explanation For Closing Spike on Friday

Quote from shortie:

looking at 15 min data since apr-2004, the lastest surge is in top 1% moves. most of those happened in oct-nov 2008.

by just eyeballing i don't see any obvious pattern the following day. if somebody sees something i would not mind hearing it.

attachment.php
More...

June 1st during the 1984-2008 period have a >90% probability of a positive finish. (% daily change). Daily range during these days (June 1st) average around 2.4%.

Hard to say what will happen on the back of the GM news though. If GM files on Monday(bar some shocking weekend change), and market rallies to a positive finish, it doesn't make sense at all (logically), but the probabilities might be in favor of a positive close. I guess we'll see Monday if the statisticians prevail over the logical thinkers. Will be interesting.
 
Come on guys. Anyone that is trading futures should be paying attention. GM is out of the Dow monday. So, there was some major re-balancing. There was also a major re-balancing in the russell 2000. Plus the credit default swaps on GM get triggered as soon as they file bankruptcy, so debtholders, ie major banks will get a windfall.
 
Quote from Pascal:

Come on guys. Anyone that is trading futures should be paying attention. GM is out of the Dow monday. So, there was some major re-balancing. There was also a major re-balancing in the russell 2000. Plus the credit default swaps on GM get triggered as soon as they file bankruptcy, so debtholders, ie major banks will get a windfall.
More...

All of that is probably true, but it's not like major market participants realized it at 2:45 EST, Friday afternoon. They've known for days if not weeks how things are going to play out. Some had a voice in the decision process.

Here is another guy's opinion:

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/goldman-sachs-principal-transactions_29.html


Some of the comments are interesting too.
 
With all the respect to what everyone said. This is my lesson.

***** DO NOT LEAVE YOUR DESK EVEN 2:50PM Friday ******

My ass was sitting all day and decided leave @ 2:45PM because it was friday and not much action was going on. :D :D :D
 
Quote from madmaxer:

With all the respect to what everyone said. This is my lesson.

***** DO NOT LEAVE YOUR DESK EVEN 2:50PM Friday ******

My ass was sitting all day and decided leave @ 2:45PM because it was friday and not much action was going on. :D :D :D
More...
me too.. i dont care what the reason was, if i was sitting ready to trade i would've hopped right in.

such a dumb mistake to miss out on this move.
 
Come on, all of the sudden your pulling out this data.....




Quote from circadian:

Has to do with Russell 2000 entrance criteria...not conspiracies by aliens to run your stops. Do some homework, and you'll see that some of these "conspiracies" are just regular market events that you could cash in on.

Last minutes of the last day in May have been seeing action like this for quite some time.

72% of last trading days in May since 1984 (year zero for Russell Indices) have been positive days.

That percentage grows higher if the final trading day in May is closer to the 31st.

Range for these days averages around 1.75%. S&P was trading at around 905 (close to day's low) at 2:50p.m. yesterday.

905 x 1.75%= 15.84

15.84 + 905 = 920.84 -------S&P closed at 920 (pretty damn close).

Hope all finds this helpful.
More...
 
Agree, Talk of GM getting removed from the Dow has been talked about for months, the rebalancing in my opinion had nothing to do with the last 5 minute rally.



Quote from 4444CJones4444:

All of that is probably true, but it's not like major market participants realized it at 2:45 EST, Friday afternoon. They've known for days if not weeks how things are going to play out. Some had a voice in the decision process.

Here is another guy's opinion:

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/goldman-sachs-principal-transactions_29.html


Some of the comments are interesting too.
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top