Explaining Japan's Recession
- Thread starter Madison
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Quote from QQQBALL:
i am unaware of a construction boom, although the current vacancy rates across the nation for office space is scary!
i believe you underestimate the impact of booking bad U.S. loans in japan to avoid U.S. regulators and just plain hiding non-performing assets. on paper they looked great and therefore continued to make the same stupid accommodation loans that got them knee-deep in it to begin with and just compounded the losses. here in the socal lenders continue to make 75% LTVs as prices just climb into the moronosphere. they could have 100% LTV soooooooooooo fast it would be scary.
here in socal, few properties come to mind that are being sold below replacement cost. what is absolutely scary is the appreciation in residential properties, both SFRs and MFD. as demand drives CAP RATES down only historically low interest rates allow for positive cash flow. what is driving the market is a demand for yield as well as real assets. interesting to see some sellers, who originally purchased in the late-1980's, getting out whole. buyers point to a lack of available land, restrictive zoning and high fees to rationalize the prices - just like they did back in the late-1980's. home buyers view higher home prices as an increased basis for the eventual appreciation and give little though their ability to actually write a check for that $400,000 entry-level 1,600 SF home on a 4,000 to 5,000 SF lot. note the recent figures published in IBD, something like a 5.5% loss in overall wealth in the last quarter (from memory - dont shoot me if im off a bit), but the savings rate edged higher. coumpound that action out and see what happens to real estate prices.
personally, im watching the unemployment rate as i cannot see why renters continue to live here in socal. some middle class areas have 2br/2bth apartment rents over $20,000 a year, which will service alot of mortgage debt at 6% interest rates or less. i cant believe that people continue to support illegal immigration and a general welfare mentality. people will leave again inspite of our great weather when the economy dumps. we were last-in, last-out during the recession that began circa 1990, we might get a repeat. feels the same now as it did then: like we dodged the bullet (recession).
recent $24 billion shortfall in california state budget may wake some people up, but eventually they'll be coming for my pocketbook again. you cannot continue to provide "everyting" for people whoi make minimum wage and pump out ninos like there is a premium on them (hey, maybe there is?).
im voting with my feet, nevada here i come.
check this out.its scary.i cant believe they reelected davis.
With its huge economy stalled and state revenues plunging, California has descended into its worst budget crisis in a decade and is now facing an excruciating round of budget cuts and possible tax increases.
State officials are proposing deep reductions in education, health services and other programs to deal with a budget shortfall that could total $25 billion in the next 18 months.
"That's a hole so deep and so vast that even if we fired every single person on the state payroll â every park ranger, every college professor and every Highway Patrol officer â we would still be more than $6 billion short," said the Assembly speaker, Herb J. Wesson Jr., a Democrat.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/09/n...n=496fcc83eb784259&ei=5006&partner=ALTAVISTA1
dude, you forgot the part where illegal aliens pay "in state" fees at state colleges/universities. its been estimated at $11,000 a head per year in subsidies for foreigners, while a student from arizona has to pay non-resident fees. or consider the poor kid from Watts who works his ass off and cant afford to go to college... sorry kid! you're not represented by the latino caucus.
i doubt the cuts will be deep. governor davis will likely propose some cuts, with the rest being made up by huge tax increases - probably user taxes to weaken the opposition. it would be cheaper to send the feds the bill for uncontrolled immigration - how much in taxes can a guy pay that is making minimum wage and supporting 5 kids with another on the way. oh that's right - he actually gets money back even though he pays "nothing" in. sorry, my bad!
make no mistake, it will get more expensive to live in, and more importantly more costly to do business in our beautiful state. why would a company pay a salary sufficient to support 2 SUVS (did that SUV tax pass?), $400,000 entry-level home (huge development fees and long delays inflate costs), etc, when they can relocate to a less expensive, more business-friendly state. people live on carbonated sodas (did that soda-pop tax pass?) while the burn $2.00/gallon gasoline on the freeways (have they raised the gas taxes yet this week?).
BTW, the guy is still is still living in an oak tree to delay a road widening required to build 1,000's of homes in the santa clarita area. good news, a dentist climbed into the tree today to treat his broken tooth. at least the tree probbaly has a better claim than the gnat catcher (bug or bird i forget) and the kangaroo rat had, when they were comfortably relocated before human habitats (homes) could be built on THEIR (?????) land. long costly delays for the humans = higher costs and less homes.
yes, at times truth is stranger than fiction. the weather here is great though.
Hey QQQ, let me echo a few thoughts
Quote from QQQBALL:
i am unaware of a construction boom, although the current vacancy rates across the nation for office space is scary!
It probably doesn't seem like a construction boom in Socal, but in Northern California, there has clearly been a massive buildup going on and as you mentioned the commercial rates are so low, they're beyond belief.
i believe you underestimate the impact of booking bad U.S. loans in japan to avoid U.S. regulators and just plain hiding non-performing assets. on paper they looked great and therefore continued to make the same stupid accommodation loans that got them knee-deep in it to begin with and just compounded the losses. here in the socal lenders continue to make 75% LTVs as prices just climb into the moronosphere. they could have 100% LTV soooooooooooo fast it would be scary.
This is very possible. I retract my earlier statement.
but the savings rate edged higher. coumpound that action out and see what happens to real estate prices.
So, so true. You never hear anyone talk about the savings rate, but in my opinion it might be the most important indicator in this market.
im voting with my feet, nevada here i come.
Seriously, did you visit the Lake Tahoe forum. There were several guys talking about moving to Tahoe. I really like the idea of living on the Nevada side and paying no state income tax.
Quote from QQQBALL:
i am unaware of a construction boom, although the current vacancy rates across the nation for office space is scary!
It probably doesn't seem like a construction boom in Socal, but in Northern California, there has clearly been a massive buildup going on and as you mentioned the commercial rates are so low, they're beyond belief.
i believe you underestimate the impact of booking bad U.S. loans in japan to avoid U.S. regulators and just plain hiding non-performing assets. on paper they looked great and therefore continued to make the same stupid accommodation loans that got them knee-deep in it to begin with and just compounded the losses. here in the socal lenders continue to make 75% LTVs as prices just climb into the moronosphere. they could have 100% LTV soooooooooooo fast it would be scary.
This is very possible. I retract my earlier statement.
but the savings rate edged higher. coumpound that action out and see what happens to real estate prices.
So, so true. You never hear anyone talk about the savings rate, but in my opinion it might be the most important indicator in this market.
im voting with my feet, nevada here i come.
Seriously, did you visit the Lake Tahoe forum. There were several guys talking about moving to Tahoe. I really like the idea of living on the Nevada side and paying no state income tax.
I didn't read the article yet so it is a general remark. Why do most econmist explain us something AFTER the FACTS when it is too late 
As for myself, I have an interesting story about that.
I once organised at school a serie of conferences about quality management. I invited a guru who happens to be also a friend of Edwards Deming the man who made Japan Quality's improvment reality - and the only stranger that has ever received an award from the Emperor itself. It was in 1986. And discussing with him he said, well Japan will lose his leadership as the new generation of leaders now go to the United States and come back with only financial and short term point of view. This will destroy economic japanese forces. Of course, I thought the guy was a fool since Japan was so strong and admired at that time.
As for myself, I have an interesting story about that.
I once organised at school a serie of conferences about quality management. I invited a guru who happens to be also a friend of Edwards Deming the man who made Japan Quality's improvment reality - and the only stranger that has ever received an award from the Emperor itself. It was in 1986. And discussing with him he said, well Japan will lose his leadership as the new generation of leaders now go to the United States and come back with only financial and short term point of view. This will destroy economic japanese forces. Of course, I thought the guy was a fool since Japan was so strong and admired at that time
.