Quote from Algo_Design_Kid:
Listen.
Time to face the facts mang'.
Don't you think it would be more advantageous to buy the historical high quality data than waste some other guy's money chasing a dream, or most likely better put "nightmare"? Like anyone with an understanding of statistics would even balk at something like this. But the internet is a great place to lure in the unintelligent if that is your main goal. I am guessing it is a little of both for you? Trying to lure someone in while in the back of your mind this is "the one", after 10 hours of research this is probably it?
In reality this strat has most likely 1 full random week of irratic SP500 movements to totally wipe you out. With that drawdown, for sure.
Do you think you are really smarter than the market with your 15 minute candles and your historical .0000001% sample? OMG, I almost have to literally laugh - but then again I was like you once as well. I wish someone would have totally made me see what I do today.
So that is why I am relaying this in a manner that will either make you want to quit or make you work 10000000x harder. God knows it has to be that much more in depth if you want to ever have anyone on this board take you serious that has more than 6 months of lifetime investment experience in any one market or an IQ over 95.
This also doesn't even start to get into the details of you getting more than likely preferential fills and about 1000 variables I am guessing you haven't even thought of yet.
Trust me, like I said, you are about 20,000 hours away from even sniffing professional money. Don't be an idiot. Take the job at Publix or Hy-Vee depending on where you live. In 10 years you might even make assistant manager in the deli dept.
As stated, i KNOW I'm far away from attracting professional money. I have tested and developed this strategy since 2003 and i know it works. I just don't have money to allocate the data into a robust back testing platform, again stated in my initial post.
I have it set up for collective 2 and it is 100% automated. We'll see if it continues to work. It's called 'The British Pound' on Collective2. Bookmark it!
Also, the personal attacks are pretty juvenile. I'm not flaming or disrespecting anyone. If you view me as a naive piker, like I'm sure many others have after reading this, then please say it nicely or not at all.
I have much more trading knowledge than you would like to believe and i understand the statistics of systems. Or maybe if you have read some Taleb you would know that just because i have 10 years of historical data and great performance doesn't mean it'll be received any better by professional money.
Risk vs. Uncertainty
There is a difference my friend. I would point you in this direction:
"Risk, Uncertainty and Profit"
By Frank Knight
âThere is a fundamental distinction between the reward for taking a calculable risk and that for assuming a risk whose value itself is not known,â Knight wrote.
A known risk is âeasily converted into an âeffectiveâ certainty,â while âtrue uncertainty,â as Knight called it, is ânot susceptible to measurement.â
